Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Rude on May 08, 2003, 12:55:25 PM
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Lets try real hard to be succinct.
Who will win the White House in 04...Democrat or Republican?
Republican
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REP!
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Republican.
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Following his fathers footsteps due to American's thinking with their pocket books, I suspect Bush may not get re-elected with the Media and Democrats focusing strongly on that issue alone unless the economy starts picking up soon. However, the SARS issue does affect world economy, thus affecting our economy as well, we may not fully recover by fall 2004. The sharks (Dems) will be circling, count on that ;)
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After the stupidity of the 90's it's anyones guess. We can all hope though.
Republican!
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I see some thoughtful analysis going on here. :)
As I've stated in another thread, the state of the economy explains the greatest amount of variance in vote choice outside party affiliation. And since strong partisans tend to cancel each other out at both ends of the political spectrum, it's that middle core of weakly partisan voters who really matter for presidential elections. These are also the people who tend to vote with their wallets the most.
If Bush hopes to electorally benefit from the economy, he's going to require some sort of good economic news soon. Pocketbook voters tend to retrospectively evaluate incumbent presidents based on their handling of the economy. As such, Bush probably needs at least some period of solid growth rather than prospects for growth going into the election.
Conversely, voters evaluate opposition candidates prospectively based on how they feel the candidate will handle the economy in the future. It's possible, of course (and plausible given the disarray among Democrats), that the Democratic candidate will fail to show how the future economy stands to benefit by his or her election. But assuming some level of campaign competence, the economy at this point benefits Democratic candidates rather than Bush.
Given Karl Rove's familiarity with political science and electoral behavior research, it's not surprising that Bush's strategy for 2004 recognizes that the economy hurts them and attempts to shift the agenda from a losing issue to a winning one for Republicans.
The big picture will become much clearer a year from now.
-- Todd/Leviathn
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Depends on how many drunkards, child molestors, drug addicts/abusers and illegal aliens the democrats can get registered twice in time for the next erection.
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Team sports can be so much fun to watch.
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Originally posted by Yeager
Depends on how many drunkards, child molestors, drug addicts/abusers and illegal aliens the democrats can get registered twice in time for the next erection.
The insightful intellectual comments are mind boggling sometimes.
BTW, I said Bush Sr. back in the early '90's. It all depends on the economy. After the gulf war Bush Sr's approval rating was 89%........89%!! I thought he was a shoe in. If economic times are bad, people will vote a change, if not(Clinton as example) they will re-elect.
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I think Chimpy will win, but it will be close. Crappy economy will counteract weak Democrat candidates to some degree.
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Originally posted by Rude
Lets try real hard to be succinct.
Who will win the White House in 04...Democrat or Republican?
Republican
W
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Originally posted by Sixpence
The insightful intellectual comments are mind boggling sometimes.
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Re:Yeagers response:
Though rudimentary, and sometimes funny, Yeager rarely posts something that is untrue. This was a fact and we've pointed it out with sources before on this BBS.
This has been reinforced by the fact that DMF did not deny it in his below post, but needed to divert the conversation to that of a grammar error. ;)
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Hell 6pence its true and you know it.
:D
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
Though rudimentary, and sometimes funny, Yeager rarely posts something that is not untrue.
So you're saying that Yeager rarely posts the truth? I'm sure he'd find issue with that statement. :)
-- Todd/Leviathn
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
This has been reinforced by the fact that DMF did not deny it in his below post, but needed to divert the conversation to that of a grammar error. ;)
hehe I'm no fan of Democrats, so don't confuse me for one.
-- Todd/Leviathn
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Originally posted by Dead Man Flying
hehe I'm no fan of Democrats, so don't confuse me for one.
-- Todd/Leviathn
The only thing worse than a Dem or Repub is a fence sitter(Read "Libertarian" into that one) . ;) Its similiar to not taking on more job responsibility for fear of failure. not pointing a finger at you, mind you.
Personally, I'm a centrist, which sounds like a fence sitter...but I tend to agree with more Repub. issues and a handful of democratic ones. I vote the issues.
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
The only thing worse than a Dem or Repub is a fence sitter(Read "Libertarian" into that one) . ;) Its similiar to not taking on more job responsibility for fear of failure. not pointing a finger at you, mind you.
[/B]
I'm not sure I'd even classify myself as a Libertarian... more like a mutt. I find I'm more interested in the process of politics than politics itself. I'm a political observer. :)
Personally, I'm a centrist, which sounds like a fence sitter...but I tend to agree with more Repub. issues and a handful of democratic ones. I vote the issues.
No reason to feel ashamed of being a centrist. In the aggregate, it's the centrists who control presidential elections in this country. Candidates can always count on their party faithful to come through for them, but if they lose the political middle, they're sunk.
-- Todd/Leviathn
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Originally posted by Dead Man Flying
In the aggregate, it's the centrists who control presidential elections in this country. Candidates can always count on their party faithful to come through for them, but if they lose the political middle, they're sunk.
-- Todd/Leviathn [/B]
Hmmm, never thought of it that way....
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30% of the voters always vote repub, 30% always vote demo, it's the 40% in the middle that really pick the winner.