Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: beet1e on May 25, 2003, 04:48:29 AM
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An old chestnut... I am fascinated to learn more about how countries which adopted the Euro have been getting along with it. I sort of wish Britain had gone ahead with it too - would make everything so much easier for frequent travellers - and then I read a news story about the dilemma facing Germany.
On holiday in Yorkshire the week before last, I was discussing this with my brother, who has a degree (BSc) in Economics. Germany has a bit of a problem. It is in recession, and has unemployment of about 10%. The European mandated interest rate for countries with the Euro is 3½%. In order to stimulate the economy, Germany needs an interest rate cut of 3% taking it down to ½%. But!!! - And this is the part I didn't fully appreciate till Big Bro explained it - when joining the single currency, the individual countries surrender all control of interest rates to the central European bank. Hence, Germany is stuck with that 3½% rate, and is in the brown and smellies as a result.
WE were in the B&S in 1989, again when Germany (the largest European economy) was in recession and we were booming. The then chancellor, Nigel Lawson, cut interest rates in an attempt to shadow what Germany was doing. The result: An explosion in the money supply, and a borrowing binge which fuelled house prices etc. Everything was being bought with borrowed money. It all ended in tears - recession, house price tumble, negative equity for many homeowners, Big German boot up the jacksie for Britain as we made our ignominious departure from the ERM, devaluation, Black/White Wednesday, failed businesses that had been crucified by Norman Lamont's interest rate rises to prop up the pound, je ne regrette rien.....
If Britain were to join the Euro single currency, how would we avoid a repeat, with interest rate regulation being removed from our control? Does anyone here share my brother's somewhat cynical (though probably correct) view that the single currency is a time bomb to create just such a crisis, which forces us into a United States of Europe? America has 50 states and a single currency, despite such disparate economies as Mississippi and California - arguably because of a system of federal taxes and federal grants. Not sure whether interest rates can be set locally...
The U. S. of E. I don't think many people want that, but is it inevitable?
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Y'all are screwed. We are accepting applicants for the 51st state. Sign up for annexation NOW.
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No USE, you guys are too different and too nationalistic plus no one entity, like lets say a strong president like a lincoln or a roosevelt, will ever have enough power to independantly force you to make tough decisions. And frankly the history of european monetary union programs in the past has been a disaster with countries joining, leaving, not following rules, rules being meaningles and so on and so on.
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That sounds like an obvious problem, Beetle. I don't know the ins and outs of the issue to an extent to comment, but I find it hard to believe these things haven't been taken into account.
Perhaps we'll just have to keep the conservatives out of power (or rather let them keep themselves out of power) and avoid the cock-ups of the past.
No USE, you guys are too different and too nationalistic plus no one entity, like lets say a strong president like a lincoln or a roosevelt, will ever have enough power to independantly force you to make tough decisions. And frankly the history of european monetary union programs in the past has been a disaster with countries joining, leaving, not following rules, rules being meaningles and so on and so on.
It's going to be a difficult road. Some people aren't afraid of difficult choices.
The economic union has been very successful in many areas. Monetry union is the next level.
Over my dead body Funked. You can keep your crappy national sports which I'm sure are a pre-requisite of membership. :)
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Originally posted by Dowding
That sounds like an obvious problem, Beetle. I don't know the ins and outs of the issue to an extent to comment, but I find it hard to believe these things haven't been taken into account.
Perhaps we'll just have to keep the conservatives out of power (or rather let them keep themselves out of power) and avoid the cock-ups of the past.
It's going to be a difficult road. Some people aren't afraid of difficult choices.
The economic union has been very successful in many areas. Monetry union is the next level.
Thatcher saved that country of yours from the commu err. I mean socialists... Of course you being from one of those 19th century coal mining union towns she destroyed I understand how you will not accept that fact - it was one of those tough choices and she wasnt afraid to make it.
And thats exactly what the problem with a USE will be - the people ready willing and able to make such tough choices will not be allowed to act because they will not be given credible authority to do so. Now maybe I'm wrong but the history of european integration has largely shown that to be true.
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You haven't a clue about Thatcher. The problem wasn't what she did, but what she didn't do. She made a whole region unemployed and put working families on the dole with NO provision for new jobs in any other industry. And she could do it because she knew she wouldn't be voted for in the region either way. Not exactly a tough choice was it? It's a shame there were no coal-fields in Kent or Sussex - that would have been a laugh.
What do you mean by 'European integration'? The economic union has been a success.
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America has 50 states and a single currency, despite such disparate economies as Mississippi and California - arguably because of a system of federal taxes and federal grants.
It also has a common language, which makes it far easier for a company to relocate from a booming area to a poorer area with lower costs, and for an individual to move from an area of high unemployment to a more prosperous area.
Europe lacks that flexibility.
Perhaps we'll just have to keep the conservatives out of power (or rather let them keep themselves out of power) and avoid the cock-ups of the past
The mistake they made was to try to shadow the DM, especially after joining the ERM. Britain's economy was not in sync with Europe's (we entered recession before them, and recovered before them), so under the ERM our interest rates were high because the rest of Europe was still trying to keep growth in check, whilst Britain had already entered reccession.
Once we came out of the ERM, and set rates the British economy needed, Britain began a recovery.
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Originally posted by Dowding
It's a shame there were no coal-fields in Kent or Sussex - that would have been a laugh.
Dowding - in the 1970s, there WERE some coal mines in Kent!
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Originally posted by Dowding
You haven't a clue about Thatcher. The problem wasn't what she did, but what she didn't do. She made a whole region unemployed and put working families on the dole with NO provision for new jobs in any other industry. And she could do it because she knew she wouldn't be voted for in the region either way. Not exactly a tough choice was it? It's a shame there were no coal-fields in Kent or Sussex - that would have been a laugh.
What do you mean by 'European integration'? The economic union has been a success.
Who said she had to provide the new jobs? Of course I know she did not, thats not her role, she was a PM not a comrade commissar. What do you want communism where the government tells you waht to do and provides 100% continous employement for people with outdated unmarketable skills? I dont think thats what you want even though you are asking for such polices. Tell me this dowding if these coal fields were still allowed to go on would you have your cushy office job today? Coal sucks and coal mining is 19th century stuff - tough luck those guys had 19th century skills in a 20th century setting. Sorry to be harsh about this dowding but these economic transiions declialways leave some people behind, look what happened to farmers at start of industrial revolution - farming nd from almost 100% of poulation to only about 5% or less these days IIRC. So in the short term yes some ppl are screwed but in the long them they, like you did, find other usually better paying jobs with higher standard of living.
As for european intergraetion just look at how the UK and the scandinavian countries have been acting with reagds to the money sytem. Look at the breakdown of fixed exchange rate schemes within the EMS. Then rememvber how hard the french tried to keep the UK out of the old EC back in the day. Then look at all the loopholes of the founding monetary systems where nobody followed the rules. Just from my experience these trends will not allow Europe to become a USE type of thing but you will achieve a pretty high level of integration nonetheless.
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Originally posted by Nashwan
It also has a common language, which makes it far easier for a company to relocate from a booming area to a poorer area with lower costs, and for an individual to move from an area of high unemployment to a more prosperous area.
Europe lacks that flexibility.
The mistake they made was to try to shadow the DM, especially after joining the ERM. Britain's economy was not in sync with Europe's (we entered recession before them, and recovered before them), so under the ERM our interest rates were high because the rest of Europe was still trying to keep growth in check, whilst Britain had already entered reccession.
Once we came out of the ERM, and set rates the British economy needed, Britain began a recovery.
The common langunage thing isnt a big deal. Really there are tons of people working very hard in the USA who cant speak english. And even in europe this isnt such a big deal - look at how germany had to import tons and tons of guest workers after ww2.
The real problem in europe was inability for labor and capital to freely go to the most efficient areas - and now this is much less of a problem with the EU intergration with its free flow of workers and capital across member states. Of course this means that low skill standardized production will move from high labor cost areas to low labor cost areas and likewise that these areas will experience a "brain drain" to the wealthier regions all acoompanied by the usual political whining. The question is will the EU govt setup be robust enogh to deflect such partisan pressures and move forward.
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Thatcher is still the ultimate morronic prime minister the brit have ever had.
And btw I believe she was a cross-dresser.
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Originally posted by straffo
Thatcher is still the ultimate morronic prime minister the brit have ever had.
And btw I believe she was a cross-dresser.
Yes straffo anyone who attacks unions and socialism must be evil - you are french and I understand that so I'm not gonna care too much. Whats the last time you been on strike, isn't it time again? :)
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Never been on strike.
And it won't change the fact that Thatcher is an morronic abomination.
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That's right Grunherz, the role of a government is not to provide any kind of re-training opportunities, boost re-education for adults or invest in alternative industries in the area. That provides for a prosperous society? When you wipe out a whole means of employment for community after community in the same area within such a short space of time the social problems are immense. House repossesions, general debt went through the roof, as did crime, particularly drug abuse.
As for me - my father was an experienced fitter at a coking plant. Lots of people whose parents working within and around the industry went to university (the fact it was unlikely I was going to go down the pit aside). Mining and the ancillary industries pay very, very well. They were affluent people. The problems were greater because suddenly that was taken away and only very low paid jobs existed - jobs that wouldn't pay the mortgage.
And Grunherz, if this had been anywhere near London on the same scale you better believe there would have been more provision for getting people into new forms of work. Does that mean they are more socialist down there?
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up to you to translate (should be pretty difficult :)):
Femme du monde ou bien putain
Qui bien souvent êtes les mêmes
Femme normale, star ou boudin,
Femelles en tout genre je vous aime
Même à la dernière des connes,
Je veux dédier ces quelques vers
Issus de mon dégoût des hommes
Et de leur morale guerrière
Car aucune femme sur la planète
N' s'ra jamais plus con que son frère
Ni plus fière, ni plus malhonnête
A part peut-être Madame Thatcher
Femme je t'aime parce que
Lorsque le sport devient la guerre
Y a pas de gonzesse ou si peu
Dans les hordes de supporters
Ces fanatiques, fous-furieux
Abreuvés de haines et de bières
Déifiant les crétins en bleu,
Insultant les salauds en vert
Y a pas de gonzesse hooligan,
Imbécile et meurtrière
Y'en a pas même en grande Bretagne
A part bien sûr Madame Thatcher
Femme je t'aime parce que
Une bagnole entre les pognes
Tu n' deviens pas aussi con que
Ces pauvres tarés qui se cognent
Pour un phare un peu amoché
Ou pour un doigt tendu bien haut
Y'en a qui vont jusqu'à flinguer
Pour sauver leur autoradio
Le bras d'honneur de ces cons-là
Aucune femme n'est assez vulgaire
Pour l'employer à tour de bras
A part peut être Madame Thatcher
Femme je t'aime parce que
Tu vas pas mourir à la guerre
Parc' que la vue d'une arme à feu
Fait pas frissonner tes ovaires
Parc' que dans les rangs des chasseurs
Qui dégomment la tourterelle
Et occasionnellement les Beurs,
J'ai jamais vu une femelle
Pas une femme n'est assez minable
Pour astiquer un revolver
Et se sentir invulnérable
A part bien sûr Madame Thatcher
C'est pas d'un cerveau féminin
Qu'est sortie la bombe atomique
Et pas une femme n'a sur les mains
Le sang des indiens d'Amérique
Palestiniens et arméniens
Témoignent du fond de leurs tombeaux
Qu'un génocide c'est masculin
Comme un SS, un torero
Dans cette putain d'humanité
Les assassins sont tous des frères
Pas une femme pour rivaliser
A part peut être Madame Thatcher
Femme je t'aime surtout enfin
Pour ta faiblesse et pour tes yeux
Quand la force de l'homme ne tient
Que dans son flingue ou dans sa queue
Et quand viendra l'heure dernière,
L'enfer s'ra peuplé de crétins
Jouant au foot ou à la guerre,
A celui qui pisse le plus loin
Moi je me changerai en chien si je peux rester sur la Terre
Et comme réverbère quotidien
Je m'offrirai Madame Thatcher
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Hiya's,
If you think Britain will join the euro soon you must be mad lol
We in Britain are like blinkered sheep
We have no "other" country to compare costs to
Now in say germany and france which share a currency and border, They can compare say petrol (gas to yanks ;) ) and accordingly stock up in other country
Now this doesn't just mean petrol it can be foodstuffs alcohol cigs etc etc
They have a basic comparable factor as in same currency (euro) so they can make a choice as to where's cheaper for stuff
Seems far fetched to think that people "country-hop" in europe for shopping but it's a fact
Now take good old britain, We see euro buys this or buys that but 90% (guesstimate) don't really know what the hell that means, Well that's because we are still using pounds n pence, Lots of people are anti-euro basicly out of ignorance and because they think that britain should keep a currency that's basicly been around longer than themselves
But we get duped into higher than the rest of eaurope prices for goods etc and taxes for that matter, And why ?? because most can't grasp the conversion from sterling to euros
So what's better for a government/country than to keep a system where it's citizens can't compare the price of a loaf to that of its neighbours
Euro in britain would mean lots of it's citizens suddenly realising the old sterling was driving prices up as compared to rest of europe
So with a divided euro currency (sterling + euro) there's no need to explain why on average most everything imaginable is dearer than europe
Someone mentioned coal, Fiancee's bro-in-law is gonna be made redundant in august, He works at a superpit called Riccall which was supposedly a "job for life with super salary" and now he is in a 43 million pound redundancy plan for the pit
The coal industry is just but part of the largest downfalls in british industries, Lack of investment in the future and a "profit today let's worry about tomorrow attitude" that britain was so good at in years gone by, But also it was currency that added to the demise
When i see the news about how our government is spending so many millions of taxpayers money fighting cheaper/illegal cig/alcohol/petrol infuxes it makes me partly laugh and also feel so sad
Why is it so many people turn to cheaper and somewhat illegal means for cheaper stuff
Well high taxes don't help but mainly because the very industries that the past governments taxed n levied to the wall are now what they are having to fight with taxpayers money eg. alcohol/cigs/fuel imports illegally
They made it so highly taxed n levied that most british beer manufacturers (large ones) have all but given up in the uk (Bass for instance)
This was intollerably high taxes and currency rates
Cigs can be made in the uk and sold in say spain for 1 1/4 of the price as the uk, Similar cases for alcohol etc etc the list is endless as such
Due to currency variations and suchlike
But if we were all on the same currency and could compare costs/prices i for one think britain may have more of a industry based econemy now than we do
Basic taxation/currency negates a need for set taxation etc that's obvious, You get nowt for nowt so to speak
But when in ours (britains) case we have nothing to compare to in the same currency things get kinda out of control, People cutback on say driving (less tax taken on petrol/derv) people cutback on cigs (great for health but hits treasury hard) people go for cheaper (illegal or other means) alcohol
All this does is force prices up more as the less is spent on those kinds of things the less the treasury takes so is forced (well government) increase revenue to keep the treasury coffers up
Hence industries like Coal/Ship building/Brewing 99% (gotta be around that %) dead n dying
With one currency in europe how could any british government explain differences in taxation and prices ?
Answer they wouldn't/couldn't be able to because the average briton would be able to say "ehh how come cigs here compared to there with the same currency" are 400% more !
Keep the pound/sterling and it's a case of eagle-eyed britons with calculator/good at maths realising we are getting a rather different deal than rest of europe
Euro as britains currency i very very very much doubt it ;) so pro-euro currency dudes/dudettes hang in there
And to the pro-sterling (mainly clingers-on to old systems etc and aren't willing to see the reasons to change) you dudes/dudettes seem to be doing a great job of holding britain back
(now this is my view and in no way was forced to right this by a pro-euro person) :p
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Dowding I understand your concerns and I can see how this is personal for you, however economics are impersonal.
You mentioned that these people were rather affluent and enjoyed high wage rates. In economic terms this would mean tht their skills were in high demand and so wage rates were naturally high. However if they lost their jobs as you said "wipe out a whole means of employment" then this means their skills were not in high demand and their wage rates were artificaillly high. Economically this means that other Britons and consumers and the economy as a whole were paying too high a price for coal to subsidize the col workers artificially infalated wages. Thus they were becoming a drag on the economy, and knowing how widespread these job losses were that was a huge drag because it toook such drastic action to balance out the societys value of the coal to the wage rates paid to coal workers in general. So yea they had be gone.
Sorry Dowding but it simply comes to fact that these folks had outdated 19th century skills in a 20th century world - there is no way thair high aggregate wages could be supported in an open economy.
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History will show that Margaret Thatcher was the second-best PM Britain had in the 20th Century (after Churchill). Not only did she defeat socialism at home, but she with her victory in the Falklands and Reagan with his support for the Afghans and their uncompromising attitude defeated Soviet socialism abroad.
You may like her or loathe her, but I've yet to meet somone over 30 who doesn't respect her.
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Grunherz made a good analysis, but I also feel Dowding’s pain on the coalmining issue.
As I see it, a large part of the problem was a long period of rule by the Labour Government. After the Tory PM, Harold Macmillan left office he was succeeded for a brief period by Sir Alec Douglas Home. But he lasted only a year before Harold Wilson was elected in 1964. From that point on, only three out of the next 15 years were untainted by Labour Government. As their name suggests, the Labour Party was a party for the workers, and of “creating” jobs. The problem was that they allowed ridiculous levels of overmanning in key industries because that way they could “reduce unemployment”, or at least make the figures look good. It was BS, of course, and many of the jobs that were artificially created were not real jobs. It was Labour who let things fester, and allowed labour intensive industries to continue with 19th century working practices right through the 1970s. We were dependent upon coal for electricity, and the miners knew it. Hence the strikes (always for higher pay) of 1972, and 1974 – the one that brought down Ted Heath’s Tory government. For three winters out of four between 1970-1974, we were subjected to power cuts and the three day week to conserve electricity and to save coal. The miners didn’t do it on their own, and had collaborators in the Transport and General Workers union who were afraid to cross the Miners’ picket lines, so coal trains en route to power stations were halted. Margaret Thatcher saw that such union power was a major evil in the 20th century. Can you imagine being subjected to power cuts in 2003 because of striking miners, what with all the computer controlled systems we have running our lives today? Of course not, and Margaret Thatcher played her part in laying to rest overmanning, trade union abuse of power, and 19th century working practices. She was Da Woman...
The reason that decent folk like Dowding and his family and neighbours were hit so hard (and believe me, they suffered – they really did, so don’t make fun of it) was that despite the writing being on the wall for 19th century style mining, Labour did nothing. They knew that the time bomb that they had left ticking away would not explode until they had left office which they did as a result of a vote of no confidence (carried by only 1 vote) in 1979. The transition from old world to new in the Yorkshire mining communities where Dowding lives came too suddenly. The miners working practices and steadfast refusal to consider any productivity deals became their Waterloo. British coal had become far too expensive, and we were able to import coal more economically than that which could be mined at home. Britain’s coal mining industry was finished – almost overnight. I have a close friend from a pit community of Upton, near Doncaster. His father and brother found work, much of which involves storage/warehousing and the like.
Had the inevitable transition from 19th century coalmining been begun in the 1960s, and had some workers been more flexible in learning new trades instead of becoming dinosaurs, the poverty and hardships suffered in Yorkshire beginning with the 1984/85 NUM strike could have been greatly reduced. I do believe there were some concessions made towards a productivity deal, but it was too little, too late.
Thatcher had seen, with regard to the unions, that "absolute power corrupts, absolutely". Unfortunately, she made the mistake of overlooking the fact that this mantra also applied to herself...
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they have a problem brewing because the euro is so strong against the dollar right now. when you exchange your money you feel like your canadian or something.
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Originally posted by Frogm4n
they have a problem brewing because the euro is so strong against the dollar right now. when you exchange your money you feel like your canadian or something.
Who has a problem? So what? Currencies fluctuate all the time. Hell the GBP has always been higher than the dollar and guess what nobody cares - nobodys pride is hurt..
And economically speaking thats a disadavantage to the EU because thair exports are more expensive worldwide and their economy will suffer if their currency values go up and their goods cost more to purchase.
But hell if this gives some joy to your sad hateful little life then run with it baby! :)