Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Ripsnort on June 02, 2003, 11:20:28 AM
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:eek: We may break 9,000 again by weeks end, eh?
Whats been fueling it? Specualation due to tax breaks? any other guesses?
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I have to live it, every damn day.
A good portion of the recent rally has been fueled by the anticipation, and realization of the dividend tax cut.
The economic numbers that have been released have been less than stellar.
There has also been equity investing on the part of Pension fund managers, (State of Illinois, for one)
Today Stocks are nicely higher in continuation of recent strength... May ISM report of manufacturing activity rose to 49.4 from 45.4, better than 48.5 mean estimate... April Construction Spending fell 0.3% vs. -1%, weaker than expected... Biotechs leading the Nasdaq to a 1% gain on positive trial data... IMCLE, DNA sharply higher; scientists say both their drugs provided substantial benefits in treating colon cancer patients... Dol higher on White House comments... NYSE breadth is 22-7 positive, Nasdaq brea is 19-9 positive... Treasuries adding to losses after reports.
We're still around a 1.6bln run-rate with a large piece of it being index trading. Lots of talk about deflation, with the prices paid number dropping. Economy not looking all that bad so they are bidding them up. Next question down here, is what happens around 9k. Last August they got winded there. December, they did it again, so we’ll see.
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those numbers never made any sense to me. Just tell me ill have more money in my pocket in the coming months and that'l be good for me.
:)
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So, is now a good time to invest??
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*half the BBS settles down in front of Muck......*
(http://image1ex.villagephotos.com/extern/640697.jpg)
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Originally posted by Swager
So, is now a good time to invest??
Anytime is a good time to invest..however, the old addage applies, "Buy low, sell high"...2 months ago when the Dow hit its 9 yr. low would have been a great time to start.
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Originally posted by Swager
So, is now a good time to invest??
Now is an excellent time, but you just be selective. The averages have had quite a run since mid march, and jumping in with both feet at this time could put you in the "Bear Trap".
Contrarians are looking at investor sentiment right now, which is still quite poor. This is an excellent sign for the market.
I would recommend dollar cost averaging. It's a very simple time tested method for an uncertain market.
If you are investing a significant amount of money, you should do your homeowork, or have someone do it for you, and select quality individual equities, bases on both Fundamental and technical merits.
If you are investing a smaller amount, you should be looking at a mutual fund with a long track record. (10 years or more) Investigate the tenure of the funds management team. Compare it's performance with the correlating index in both bull and bear markets. Finally, if you are satisfied, examine the Fee structure.
No load fund are not no load. Look into the 12b1 fees, etc. Some of these No loads are more expensive than loaded funds.
Also, if you select a load fund, ask if the fund offers a "C" share. This is a share class that most brokers will never talk about because we get paid about 1/2 the normal commission.
An A share charges anywhere from 4.5-5% right off the top, but has lower annual expenses. (Longer term investors buy A shares)
A B share has a CDSC (contingent defered sales charge). You pay nothing up front. If you sell the fund in year 1, you pay 5%, year 2, you pay 4% etc...until year 6, when the funds can be converted to A shares. (Please note, different funds have different fee schedules)
A C share is a level load. Nothing to buy, if you sell in the first year, you pay 1%. After year 1, you are free to sell for nothing. However, C shares have the highest annnual fees (you never see these, they come out of the funds returns) and nevr convert to A shares.
Hope this helps.
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How's someone so smart wind up in a kooky squad like the MAWs :)
On a serious note....been reviewing my 401k and Roth IRAs....eeek, had to translate this stuff. Looks like an electro cardio gram :P
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Originally posted by LePaul
How's someone so smart wind up in a kooky squad like the MAWs :)
On a serious note....been reviewing my 401k and Roth IRAs....eeek, had to translate this stuff. Looks like an electro cardio gram :P
*laughs*
If you'd like, you can fax your statments to my office, and I'll run a portfolio review for you. We'll take a look at your asset allocation, and then the individual fund and their overall track record.
I'll mail you the reports, but you would have to make the alterations to your 401(k) yourself, of course.
You can look up our info at http://www.ubspainewebber.com
I'm in the Forest Hills, New York branch.
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I read somewhere that a HUGE crash is predicted in the next 15 to 20 years due to the massive cash pullout the boomers will be doing all too simultaneously as they reach retirement age. Waddayathink Muck?
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Originally posted by midnight Target
I read somewhere that a HUGE crash is predicted in the next 15 to 20 years due to the massive cash pullout the boomers will be doing all too simultaneously as they reach retirement age. Waddayathink Muck?
LOL! I've heard that as an excuse not to invest. BS. Pure and simple BS. Why would a retired person pull all their money out? You live off the interest and dividends.
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Muck,
We have been trading the Dow Index - DJM3
If I could post a chart I would show you, its been in an upward channel but looks like it may have broken out of the channel to the upside. Tomorrows close will confirm or if it closes lower will just put a wider range in the channel. Its been a great trade, buy it at the bottom of the channel and sell it near the top. I have a couple of my spec traders who have done very well with it. It has been in that channel since April.
btw - I use candlesticks to chart but a bar chart will give you the ranges.
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Originally posted by ygsmilo
Muck,
We have been trading the Dow Index - DJM3
If I could post a chart I would show you, its been in an upward channel but looks like it may have broken out of the channel to the upside. Tomorrows close will confirm or if it closes lower will just put a wider range in the channel. Its been a great trade, buy it at the bottom of the channel and sell it near the top. I have a couple of my spec traders who have done very well with it. It has been in that channel since April.
btw - I use candlesticks to chart but a bar chart will give you the ranges.
I've used the technique of channel trading many times. Sometimes successful, sometimes not. I am a technician at heart. Though some in my business look at it as witchcraft. I try to buy stocks withing certain parameters, and that are thrice blessed. But I only recommend stocks after seeing a clients entire portfolio, even if it's not with me. It's all a matter of discipline.
I've heard about the Boomer Crash. I've also heard we're going to get hit by an asteroid someday. Question is, do you live in a bunker until then?
How much will $10,000 be worth in 15 to 20 years? Is it worth the risk? I think so. Even if you take a 40% loss in one year, the 14 years of 8-10% growth plus compounding will more than cover you.
Also, in my experience, 90% of people do not pull their money out of equities upon retirement. They do it gradually over a period of time before retirement, moving from growth vehicles to fixed income, usually leaving 20-30% of their total portfolio in quality equities (usually paying a dividend) to offset inflation.
I've been a financial advisor for almost 10 years, and plan on doing it for another 20. I've just lived through the 3 worst years of my career..and that of the 30 year vets around me...I'm not worried. I've been tested and my people are walking out intact.
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Originally posted by muckmaw
It's all a matter of discipline.
Amen to that.
I have been maxing out my 401k for the last 21 years, I may balance the portfolio but I am not going to change my contribution.
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Muck..are you a CFA? Did you have to write that horrible 3 part exam way back when?
Two buddies of mine decided they would get their CFAs..they both passed Part 1, one of them failed Part 2. The guy who failed just re-wrote Part 2 on Saturday and the other guy wrote the Part 3 on the same day.
Just listening to them discuss the material was enough to make me shudder.
They figured it would be a "doddle"..they are both CAs. Boy were they wrong.
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I'm a Registered Rep.
Meaning, I took and passed the 8 hour Series 7 Exam.
I've also taken the Series 63, Series 65 (Both cake walks)
Most recently, I passed the New York State Insurance Licensing Board Exam.
I am fully licensed by the NASD to handle every type of investment transaction with the exception of commodities. (My senior partner is commodities licensed, though.)
The series 7 is a night mare. After completing college, I studied for that exam for 16 weeks, and still only got an 87 on it. I think 70% of those taking the 7 fail it.
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
Anytime is a good time to invest..however, the old addage applies, "Buy low, sell high"...2 months ago when the Dow hit its 9 yr. low would have been a great time to start.
BTW
Thanks for the advise Rip back then... I read that post and later that day had an apointment with an advisor, I was very mixed on the idea of investing in the market that year but your reply "Buy low sell high" stuck in my mind and I moved
heavily into the market...Later that day.
Since then I have doubled my investment +
The google price thread reminded me of that today...
Thanks!
TJ
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Originally posted by T0J0
BTW
Thanks for the advise Rip back then... I read that post and later that day had an apointment with an advisor, I was very mixed on the idea of investing in the market that year but your reply "Buy low sell high" stuck in my mind and I moved
heavily into the market...Later that day.
Since then I have doubled my investment +
The google price thread reminded me of that today...
Thanks!
TJ
If the market crashes tomorrow, don't thank me! :D
Good on you for investing. I read an article that had numbers of how many baby boomers were not ready for retirement, and a good portion of them have their house sale factored in as a source of income once in retirement. :huh
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
If the market crashes tomorrow, don't thank me! :D
Good on you for investing. I read an article that had numbers of how many baby boomers were not ready for retirement, and a good portion of them have their house sale factored in as a source of income once in retirement. :huh
I understand the risk! I am in for the long haul..
People in general spend way over thier realistic means never considering retirement, they end up in a trailerpark in florida named hawaii village on Maui street spending thier afternoons watching reruns of gunsmoke all day waiting for the 31st... Pot luck thursday's is the highlight of the week...
Its really not all that bad, the neighbors only argue once in awhile and the flying pans only break bones, nobodys been actually killed yet by a kitchen utensil it just sounds bad during impact. The great part is I just have to visit....
Best
TJ
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Originally posted by T0J0
I understand the risk! I am in for the long haul..
People in general spend way over thier realistic means never considering retirement, they end up in a trailerpark in florida named hawaii village on Maui street spending thier afternoons watching reruns of gunsmoke all day waiting for the 31st... Pot luck thursday's is the highlight of the week...
Its really not all that bad, the neighbors only argue once in awhile and the flying pans only break bones, nobodys been actually killed yet by a kitchen utensil it just sounds bad during impact. The great part is I just have to visit....
Best
TJ
:rofl
I started planning for retirement at age 28 :confused: :huh Don't get me wrong, I'm enjoying every moment of my working life, I just want to buy more toys after I retire when I actually have the time to enjoy them! :D
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So where's Rip's commission? He's got a garage that must need steamcleaning and fresh paint ;)