Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: Ripsnort on June 17, 2003, 09:52:25 AM
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Analysts are saying this upward (Bull) market trend will probably go thru 2005...I say the Dow Jones hits 10k this year...
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IMHO this is just a blip caused by people who hope the market has bottomed and are trying to get in for the ride up. A month from now it will be back down.
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Originally posted by ra
IMHO this is just a blip caused by people who hope the market has bottomed and are trying to get in for the ride up. A month from now it will be back down.
You do realize that 1500-2000 pts. over 4 months isn't exactly a "blip", don't you?
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I think it will be at 10k in less than 2.5 months....
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The Democrats must cringe with every point it moves up. A sour economy is about the only issue they have to batter the President with, and it don't seem to be cooperating.
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Originally posted by Sabre
The Democrats must cringe with every point it moves up. A sour economy is about the only issue they have to batter the President with, and it don't seem to be cooperating.
You do realize that the stock market does not represent the whole economy... right?
-- Todd/Leviathn
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Originally posted by Dead Man Flying
You do realize that the stock market does not represent the whole economy... right?
-- Todd/Leviathn
No? in what way is it not a direct indication of the health (or lack of) the economy?
As it is the trust of a company’s ability to turn a profit or not that drives the stock market, I think it is the greatest indication of the coming economy there is.
When it is on the way down everyone claims "there goes the economy" why can it not be the other way on the way up?
Please explain your statement to me.
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Originally posted by Scootter
When it is on the way down everyone claims "there goes the economy" why can it not be the other way on the way up?
Please explain your statment to me.
Because he's a democrat. You have to remember water flows uphill for them....
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if you bribe me enough, i'll stand up and yell BUY !!!
:D
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oh .... I see Udie
When people complain about the Pres. lack of leadership on the economy because it is in the tank and its his fault.
So then when he does something about it (what else can he really do other then what he did) and it starts back a bit he gets no credit?
If W was to walk on water the Dems would say, “he can't swim” (with much glee) and show it as another weakness.
Seems the economy runs in cycles no matter what is going on in the world (really are things any different then they were 10, 15 25 years ago). We spend in an orgy of greed and spend the next 3 or 5 years paying for the financial hangover we have created. We as a nation spent like there was no tomorrow in the late 90’s and now are just about finished paying it off. Don’t worry we will have another greed driven spending spree soon, we did it in the mid 80’s and late 90’s due for another mid 2000’s.
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Originally posted by fd ski
if you bribe me enough, i'll stand up and yell BUY !!!
:D
Does this come with a free video of the event? :D
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Guys, guys, guys...
Sigh... here are the rules.
If a Republican is in office, and the market goes up, its not a good indicator of the economy. The inverse is also true; if the market goes down, it is, indeed, a good indicator of the economy.
If a Democrat is in office, and the market goes up, its a fantastic indicator of the economy. The inverse is also true, but with a twist; if the market goes down, not only is it not an indicator of the economy, but its the previous Republican office holder's fault.
I blame my parents.
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Bottom line from me...... NO
I have kept all my things from Sept 11...<----DUMB ASS
I have not sold waiting for things to come back.
I am investing in commercial real estate (read SLUM LORD)
Better returns...tangible assets...gotta be willing to do that.
Before I put ANOTHER dime in the stockmarket...personally...im waiting a bit....now with that being said my Thrift savings from the Govt is 100% invested in the stock market.
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Originally posted by Scootter
Please explain your statement to me.
The stock market, and particularly the Dow Jones, offer only a small glimpse of the aggregate national economy. For one, Dow Jones (and other stock markets) selectively choose member corporations and routinely delist underperforming organizations. For instance, IEN was delisted when its stock value fell precipitously. Stock markets do not typically delist overachieving stocks.
Second, the corporations included in major stock markets do not encompass the whole width and breadth of the aggregate economy. How can we measure the performance of small businesses through the Dow Jones? How about home sales? The massive service sector? The bond market?
The stock market is just that... one market comprised of stocks that represents one of many markets constituting the overall economy.
-- Todd/Leviathn
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times are bad getting worse tons of layoffs plant closings ect ect ect. saying sunshine will shine out your bellybutton dont make it so. the stock market is the rich counting the spoils sucked out of the working man.
please please check previous voodoo economics presidents. with 2 trillion in tax cuts weighted to the wealthy minority you ( the republican party )own the economy for good or bad you fail again and there will be no excuses about who is to blame next year. agreed?
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Originally posted by Dead Man Flying
precipitously
Ohhh my favorite word!
-Sik
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Originally posted by lord dolf vader
times are bad getting worse tons of layoffs plant closings ect ect ect. saying sunshine will shine out your bellybutton dont make it so. the stock market is the rich counting the spoils sucked out of the working man.
please please check previous voodoo economics presidents. with 2 trillion in tax cuts weighted to the wealthy minority you ( the republican party )own the economy for good or bad you fail again and there will be no excuses about who is to blame next year. agreed?
Blame the Unions...they over-priced themselves..everyone is offloading American over-paid jobs to over seas.
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The market discounts the economy by 6-12 months.
At this point, you should not fear equity investing. You must realize, the average retail investor is his own worst enemy. I've been managing retail accounts as well as instiitutional accounts for over 10 years with Prudential and now UBS. Almost invariably, retial investors make the absolute wrong decisions. They buy into rally's and sell into fear.
The indexs as whole, mean nothing. They are simply benchmarks upon which one MAY measure their investment portfolio's performance. Doing so often provides inaccurate readings.
Currently, I am recommending my clients overweight Basic Materials and Information technology, underweight consumer discretionary and Consumer staples and market weight in Financials, Industrials, Energy, health care, utilities and telecommunications.
Corpoarte America must step up on physical capitol and labor. Otherwise, a sustained recovery will be postponed. However, it may be Main St. America Ie small firms, that once again quietly get the ball rolling on hiring. The recent new tax legislation may help this process begin, and big business, as it did 10 years ago, may sumply be waiting for someone else to make the first move in net new hires. If Main St. America steps up, you will see an ever more clear picture of a recovering economy.
Dow 10,000? It's just a number for th papers to print.
Allocate your assets wisely, dividing among equities and fixed income, based on your risk/reqard profile.
Allocate your equity holdings among sectors that have been depressed, and will do well in this current economic enviorment.
Then allocate your sector holding by corporate capitalization.
Stay the course, never give in to fear and greed, and you'll do well.
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
Blame the Unions...they over-priced themselves..everyone is offloading American over-paid jobs to over seas.
Not all the jobs going over seas are union jobs. An American accountant wants $50K/year, a Filipino accountant wants $5/hr. Who wins? The labor market is becoming more global than ever, and all western workers' wages will be affected, even those whose jobs stay put. I don't see the economy coming back until things have stabilized.
ra
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Originally posted by Dead Man Flying
The stock market, and particularly the Dow Jones, offer only a small glimpse of the aggregate national economy. For one, Dow Jones (and other stock markets) selectively choose member corporations and routinely delist underperforming organizations. For instance, IEN was delisted when its stock value fell precipitously. Stock markets do not typically delist overachieving stocks.
Second, the corporations included in major stock markets do not encompass the whole width and breadth of the aggregate economy. How can we measure the performance of small businesses through the Dow Jones? How about home sales? The massive service sector? The bond market?
The stock market is just that... one market comprised of stocks that represents one of many markets constituting the overall economy.
-- Todd/Leviathn
Equities must maintain certain levels of capitalization to be kept on the exchanges. If they cannot maintain those levels, they are delisted. There is nothing arbitrary about it.
The market, and by that I mean, the overall equity market does watch the sectors you mentioned, quite carefully. Housing starts, existing home sales, GDP, Consumer Sentiment, etc all play into the daily performance of your portfolio.
The bond market is generally inversely proportional to the equity markets, as investors use these vehicles as safe havens when the market turns south, thereby depressing yields, and raising bond prices.
As you stated, the Dow is a very narrow index, and is not indicative of the entire economy. The S&P 500 is a much broader index, and encompasses almost every segment of the Equity market.
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Well, personally I made a change of investment recently to reflect a trend of growth, that being small caps and technologies...however I never put all eggs in one basket, so this only made up about 35% change in my existing portfolio. Should be interesting to see how it does a year from now.
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By the way, do you know who actually selects the stocks that make up the beloved Dow 30?
An investment committee from Dow Jones, Inc, publisher of the Wall Street Journal. Of course they must meet certain criteria, but the equities are not chosen by an SRO.
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Originally posted by Saurdaukar
Guys, guys, guys...
Sigh... here are the rules.
If a Republican is in office, and the market goes up, its not a good indicator of the economy. The inverse is also true; if the market goes down, it is, indeed, a good indicator of the economy.
If a Democrat is in office, and the market goes up, its a fantastic indicator of the economy. The inverse is also true, but with a twist; if the market goes down, not only is it not an indicator of the economy, but its the previous Republican office holder's fault.....
LOL .. exactly
but I do think this gain is temp
they are going from daytrading to weekly :)
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Originally posted by Ripsnort
Blame the Unions...they over-priced themselves..everyone is offloading American over-paid jobs to over seas.
This is exactly right
We've had 2 paper mills here go bye-bye because the Unions dont want to cut the pay, or give anything. Hell, for their bloated wages, those kooky mill owners are lucky they show up on time
I used to sympathize with the Unions. But after being in a Union and seeing how they gouge members for dues and seldom return phone calls to their members, or visit the work place....and best of all...drive around in cars the members could never afford...its clear the union is off on their own planet. That's my take on the local Teamsters. Your region may differ.
I don't like seeing jobs going over seas. I also dont like state and local government's hammering a business with taxes.
Its all so easy to blame the factory/mill/company. Yet the same people dont want to pay higher prices for products...required due to higher costs...like labor.
Its a vicious circle people refuse to recognize
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Originally posted by Udie
Because he's a democrat. You have to remember water flows uphill for them....
I'm not a Democrat, but thanks for playing.
You're also confusing a cautionary note with a willfully pessimistic one.
-- Todd/Leviathn
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Originally posted by Dead Man Flying
You do realize that the stock market does not represent the whole economy... right?
-- Todd/Leviathn
I realize that, but it is a major indicator for your average American. And it's not about facts Todd, at least not with hardcore liberal Bush-hating democrats; it's about preception. Back when the stock market first dropped, but the numbers for durable goods and housing starts and unemployment numbers all looked strong, Daschle and his ilk were out blasting the airwaves with talk of a "destroyed economy" because of the Adminstrations "dangerous fiscal policies." It's hard to convince your average Joe that the economy is in the tank when every news show and newspaper shows the Dow and NASDAQ and S&P trending upwards. The 10K threshold is a powerful psychological mark in and of itself, and breaking it will make the left's calls of fiscal armegedon ring hollow.
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Todd, ur smert.
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Originally posted by Dead Man Flying
I'm not a Democrat, but thanks for playing.
You're also confusing a cautionary note with a willfully pessimistic one.
-- Todd/Leviathn
No I'm not :) To be honest I actually see some truth in your statement. Though I agree with Sabre. I guess I'm sorry for calling you a democrat :) Nobody deserves that sort of insult ;)
The water running uphill part for them is true though.....
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Dow 36,000
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Originally posted by LePaul
This is exactly right
We've had 2 paper mills here go bye-bye because the Unions dont want to cut the pay, or give anything. Hell, for their bloated wages, those kooky mill owners are lucky they show up on time
I used to sympathize with the Unions. But after being in a Union and seeing how they gouge members for dues and seldom return phone calls to their members, or visit the work place....and best of all...drive around in cars the members could never afford...its clear the union is off on their own planet. That's my take on the local Teamsters. Your region may differ.
I don't like seeing jobs going over seas. I also dont like state and local government's hammering a business with taxes.
Its all so easy to blame the factory/mill/company. Yet the same people dont want to pay higher prices for products...required due to higher costs...like labor.
Its a vicious circle people refuse to recognize
So let's all work for minimum wage, that will cure everyting:rolleyes:
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no
just buy american, pay 2-3x for it and hope it's as good or better (since your paying more it should be) than an import which is on the rack for a 1/2 or 1/3 the cost
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nah, workin for minimum wage sounds much better
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Scootter: No? in what way is it not a direct indication of the health (or lack of) the economy?
...
When it is on the way down everyone claims "there goes the economy" why can it not be the other way on the way up?
But why do you think that those people are right?
As it is the trust of a company’s ability to turn a profit or not that drives the stock market, I think it is the greatest indication of the coming economy there is.
Unless that trust and the resulting misallocation of resources is caused not by natural free market economic processes but by government's expansionist monetary policy and other distortions of price signals.
miko
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Originally posted by Sixpence
nah, workin for minimum wage sounds much better
Here's a man with no answers and just sarcasm.
Let's bow in your ignorance.
:p
I imagine you are the first to protest a Wal Mart opening, but actively seek the cheapest price?
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Originally posted by LePaul
I imagine you are the first to protest a Wal Mart opening, but actively seek the cheapest price?
Or as we say around here[sarcasm] "Welcome to Taos"[/sarcasm] :D
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Hey, I was aboard for a while but they made me wait too long so I jumped off the bandwagon.
:rolleyes:
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It is funny how the people who complain about unions are the first to complain walmart is putting them out of business.
And seeming we, as a nation, are a union, I guess that is bad for the economy too.
Let me add to that. There was a certain airline union who took big pay cuts only to see the execs get huge bonuses. Why is it when execs ruin companies(enron,tyco, to name a few), the unions are to blame? Why not the execs raiding the company? I know, it was the the union who forced the execs to give themselves millions in bonuses:rolleyes:
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Originally posted by Sixpence
It is funny how the people who complain about unions are the first to complain walmart is putting them out of business.
And seeming we, as a nation, are a union, I guess that is bad for the economy too.
Let me add to that. There was a certain airline union who took big pay cuts only to see the execs get huge bonuses. Why is it when execs ruin companies(enron,tyco, to name a few), the unions are to blame? Why not the execs raiding the company? I know, it was the the union who forced the execs to give themselves millions in bonuses:rolleyes:
Your right...there are several cases where the management is everybit to blame as the Union....more in many cases
You refer to American Airlines...my best friend works for them
He also moans how it sucks he is only making $85 an hour.
Good grief.
But in the situations I am savvy with, the Unions helped kill the business. Period.
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Originally posted by Dead Man Flying
The stock market, and particularly the Dow Jones, offer only a small glimpse of the aggregate national economy. For one, Dow Jones (and other stock markets) selectively choose member corporations and routinely delist underperforming organizations. For instance, IEN was delisted when its stock value fell precipitously. Stock markets do not typically delist overachieving stocks.
Second, the corporations included in major stock markets do not encompass the whole width and breadth of the aggregate economy. How can we measure the performance of small businesses through the Dow Jones? How about home sales? The massive service sector? The bond market?
The stock market is just that... one market comprised of stocks that represents one of many markets constituting the overall economy.
-- Todd/Leviathn
Thank You,
Interesting reading and you have made many valid points.
I stand corrected and enlightened Todd, thanks for your time.
(learn stuff here every day)
PS, I like the way you explained it, not preachy or full of yourself just very factual.
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which one would you be savvy with?
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I think to "Joe Sixpack" the market is the economy and when it is going up and his 401k looks better he feels better about buying that case of Bud for the weekend. When its the other way he buys a 12 pack of Bush instead.
Simple, when people (who have a job) are told times are bad they spend much less and times get bad, when they think things are looking up they spend more and things get better. Is this to simple of is there a wee bit of truth here?
I still think that when the average man on the street (not we folks with this strange afliction called the O-club) sees the market going up day after day he thinks things are gettng better.
Now this is not going to make the Dems happy as they want times to be bad for the next election,so this should be interesting for the next 12 months or so, me thinks.
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Originally posted by Sixpence
which one would you be savvy with?
The Teamsters here when I worked for UPS (left in March)...and friends in the local mills that are struggling in Bankruptcy after turning down 2 offers to keep them gainfully employed.
Apparently an unemployed union member is better than an emplyed one....or that seems to be their thinking here. Pfft
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Did the mills open their books?
BTW, When the UPS workers went on strike here, they were in the right IMO. UPS wants more part time jobs, the workers wanted more full time jobs. Don't quite understand the use of a 20 hour job, unless, of course, you own the company.
I guess those UPS workers just want to drive the company into the ground:rolleyes:
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Originally posted by Sixpence
Did the mills open their books?
I guess those UPS workers just want to drive the company into the ground:rolleyes:
Mills...yes, its in Chapter 11 so its all there. In order to get out of bankrupty, things have to change on the costline....Unions wont budge.
As for UPS...the old addage is any company that has a Union usually deserves it. But in my Union, we had NO representation from our dear Union brothers in the home office. Return calls? Pfft...visit the workplace and get feedback from members? Nope. But, they were announcing via the stewards that they were shopping for brand new Oldsmobiles for the Teamster reps. No joke. My point is that many of us employees had just as much hassles with our own union (those nice guys who raise our dues without a vote) than deal with the kook'd management. Its like being between two trenches in WW1.
I opted to get out after almost 2 years. I have no use for the Teamsters Union...they are a huge failure at "speaking for the members". We just finance their voice.
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A union is only as good as it's members.
And what makes you think chapter 11 was brought on by the worker's salaries? Did the bosses take pay cuts? Was upper management downsized? Was the company run into bankruptcy by the owner's poor decisions?Or is it just easy to blame the workin man? Scare tactics are used all the time, the more you can take away from the workers, the more you can pad the execs pockets. Or just raid the pension funds.
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Wooo hooo! 10,000 today!
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ALL LIES!!!
THERE IS NO DOW IN BAGDHAD!!!
WE SHALL SMITE THE UNBELIEVERS!!!
THE STREAMS SHALL FLOW RED WITH THE BLOOD OF THE GREAT SHAITAIN BOOSH!!!
DETH TO AMREEKA!!!
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SHWEET!
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For the second time, Rip. It briefly edged above 10k a couple days ago, but didn't finish above it. Still, good news in my opinion. Hopefully well see continued job growth as well. Then again, I'm sure someone will be along shortly to tell us why this is bad news, or at least meaningless news. Any time now...
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Woops, double post.
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Originally posted by Sabre
For the second time, Rip. It briefly edged above 10k a couple days ago, but didn't finish above it. Still, good news in my opinion. Hopefully well see continued job growth as well. Then again, I'm sure someone will be along shortly to tell us why this is bad news, or at least meaningless news. Any time now...
Yeah, I didn't count the 59 seconds it hit 10k on Tuesday. ;)
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It's official now. :)
Woo hoo by 1 point!
http://www.foxnews.com/ (http://www.foxnews.com/)
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and back down it goes...
:(
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Originally posted by fd ski
and back down it goes...
:(
Yep, good time to buy, its about 2 weeks early!:
http://www.hitechcreations.com/forums/showthread.php?threadid=116010&referrerid=3203