Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: miko2d on September 25, 2003, 08:39:44 PM
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Anyone knows how to explain the following things:
1. http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/usfd/page16.pdf The businesses significantly reduced borrowing and are actually reducing debt - meaning they do not expect it to be profitable to borrow money and add to the supply of capital even at such low rates. But the total bank loans are up.
What's going on?
2. According to August figures, the businesses laid off 93,000 people, yet unemployment dropped from 6.2% to 6.1%.
How can this be?
3. Businesses are not investing in capital/equipment but the productivity is rising. How could it be raising without inrease in the supply of capital?
miko
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Contraction.
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That's all the responce?
1. The businesses significantly reduced borrowing and are actually reducing debt - meaning they do not expect it to be profitable to borrow money and add to the supply of capital even at such low rates. But the total bank loans are up.
What's going on?
The businesses do not expect business to be profitable. There is no accumulation of capital and maybe even decululation - businesses not replacing worn-out capital, preferring to reduce their capital and debt. That may be the first time in US history that happens in the election year inspite of monetary pumping by Fed. Could it be that buisiness people learned from the past?
At the same time consumers are borrowing like crazy.
2. According to August figures, the businesses laid off 93,000 people, yet unemployment dropped from 6.2% to 6.1%.
How can this be?
Because of how the Bureau of Labor Statistics defines "unemployment." You might think that unemployment means "not having a job." Actually, the term is officially defined as follows:
Unemployed persons are all persons who had no employment during the reference week, were available for work, except for temporary illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment some time during the 4-week period ending with the reference week.
The estimate for August is that, while 93,000 workers got fired, 566,000 officially unemployed workers stopped looking for work, July/August, thereby removing themselves from the ranks of the officially unemployed.
Thus, the unemployment rate dropped. Whoopie!
3. Businesses are not investing in capital/equipment but the productivity is rising. How could it be raising without inrease in the supply of capital?
Businesses are firing a lot of workers - starting with the least productive. The statistical number of average productivity of the remaining employed workers correspondingly increases.
So, unemployent is growing, business is not expanding, productivity of employed workers is not really growing. Nice recovery.
miko
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That's funny...nice try:)
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Originally posted by miko2d
So, unemployent is growing, business is not expanding, productivity of employed workers is not really growing. Nice recovery.
miko [/B]
Funny thing is we lost 3 people who went and found better jobs. We also have hired 3 replacements and are getting ready to hire 5 more for the 2 new contracts starting next month. Some of the guys we laid off have called and told me they are back at work after 4 (months of looking) And some of them have started their own companies. Dont get me wrong its (the tech job market) not looking good yet, but it seems to be showing some signs of life.
One of the area school systems is purchasing 10,000 notebooks. A local telecom company is buying new computers for the first time since 2000. A very large restraunt chain is retrofitting 1100+ stores with new IT equipment. These are just a few of the outfits we are dealing with that have purchased new equipment. I dont know, but it looks like a turn around to me.
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Krusher: I dont know, but it looks like a turn around to me.
Good for you and Texas.
Nevertheless, the official statistics for the whole country for August is 93,000 laid off and the businesses are not borrowing money to expand but reducing their debts.
One of the area school systems is purchasing 10,000 notebooks.
???
miko
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miko , it's caused by people buying gold with their worthless US paper "money" that will be worth nothing when foreign govts stop suporting the worthless US govt bonds.
how did i do?
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Originally posted by john9001
miko , it's caused by people buying gold with their worthless US paper "money" that will be worth nothing when foreign govts stop suporting the worthless US govt bonds.
how did i do?
One sentence A+
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hehehe Miko, i think we might be reading the same weekly ;)
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I am seeing tech job openings in south florida, just not advertised in the media, all have been ok paying for the region.
$40-$60's... We have hired and added staff in the last 6 months from normal attrition 3 positions.
Everywhere I drive in Sarasota bradenton I see help wanted adds!!
I have friends at several local tech companies that have said the same things. their companies are hiring as well.
Our sister company has an Ad running for a Professional position
and the Pres said in 2 weeks they haven't recieved much response at all...
Its a small positive in a world of many negatives!!!
My Brother in Irvine watched most of the staff leave on their own and out of 10 that left within several weeks all that wanted to be employed are "9 out of 10" one decided to retire, all firmware engineers.
On a kinda sour note our company has decided to investigate outsourcing development to india :( This doesn't effect me short term, but in the long run it means supporting products that were developed by people I cant speak to very well and explain problems with code and specs... Maybe I am wrong but doubt it...
When designing software its easier to work next door to development cause you can interactively make easy changes when you find a bug or design flaw whatever.. OR blind transfer a corporate VP who found a design flaw right down to R&D!!
That gets it fixed quick!
So I say indicators schmindicators the recovery is on its way!!
Just be patient..
T0J0
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as soon as your not collecting an unemployement check your not considered unemployed. We are actually close to 10 percent unemployement right now.
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john9001: miko , it's caused by people buying gold with their worthless US paper "money" that will be worth nothing when foreign govts stop suporting the worthless US govt bonds.
:D
I doubt many americans are as smart as to borrow a lot of money, buy gold and wait untill the inflation wipes out their debts and drives up the value of their gold.
But somebody is buying the gold.
If you are so smart, tell me this - there is not a single dollar in the Social Security Fund - only special government bonds, as the head of GAO Comptroller Genral David Walker confirmed a week ago. Where will those dollars come from? Taxes? Or a printing press?
fd ski: hehehe Miko, i think we might be reading the same weekly
I am currently reading no weekly sources, only the daily ones. The authors of articles are probably the same, though.
miko
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I don't follow US economics anymore since I adopted the lifestyle of the Montana Freemen. Ruby Ridge! Ruby Ridge!
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thats funny, the bank keeps cashing my SS checks. boy are they stupid.
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damn freeloader!
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and I need is a good tuna sandwich and a blowjob and Im happy :D
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john9001: <>>
thats funny, the bank keeps cashing my SS checks. boy are they stupid.
I have an opinion who is stupid here and it's not "they" but rather some people who have no idea where their checks are coming from and what their retirements obligations are backed with.
They are cashing your checks - not from the Social Security Trust Fund but from incoming payroll taxes.
Head of the General Accounting Office comptroller General of the United States Dawid M. Walker's speech on September 17, 2003.
http://www.gao.gov/cghome/npc917.pdf
Importantly, while we are starting off in a financial hole we don’t really have a very good picture of how deep it is. Specifically, there are a number of very significant items that are not currently included as liabilities in the federal government’s financial statements; for example, several trillion dollars ... in so-called “Trust Funds.” In the case of the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds, the federal government took in taxpayer money, spent it on other items and replaced it with an IOU[/b]. Given this fact, why aren’t the amounts attributed to such activities shown as a “liability” of the U.S. Government? ... The current U.S government liability figures also do not adequately consider veterans’ health care benefit costs provided through the Department of Veteran’s Affairs nor do they include the difference between future promised and funded benefits in connection with the Social Security and Medicare programs. These additional amounts total tens of trillions of dollars in discounted present value terms.
... In less than 10 years, due primarily to the retirement of the baby boom generation, the United States will be hit by a huge demographic tidal wave that is not expected to ever recede! This is unprecedented in the history of our nation.
There is no money there, only bonds. Right now payrol taxes paid by the workers cover the payouts but in a few years when baby-boomers start retiring the inflow will not be enough and the government will have to redeem those IOUs. In order to do that it will have to raise taxes, reduce benefits or print money.
miko