Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: crabofix on October 10, 2003, 09:06:16 AM
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Whats Gonna Happend Now?
link For thoose who can translate Swedish.
Here (http://www.sr.se/ekot/ekonomiekot/artikel.asp?artikel=304418)
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If Russia goes ahead it might start a chain reaction that would seriously hurt US economy since the oil trade in $ allows the US to print large amounts of $ without the risk of inflation.
Huh?
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Originally posted by ra
Huh?
with a very large percent of the worlds GDP tied directly to US markets we will see how well this goes over in the long run. I am betting its a large bluff that will back fire in the long run.
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The sun will still come up tomorrow, that's what.
In addition... this war in Iraq did not cause OPEC or Russia or anyone else to suddenly want to trade in Euros... these countries are only trying to position themselves for a bigger piece of the pie. Believe it or not, America was detested before the war, and there are many countries that wouldn't mind at all seeing the Euro being the unit of trade... France chief amongst them. Whether or not the war happened, we'd be having this discussion sooner or later.
Let it happen. We'll survive it. These countries still want us to buy their oil, don't they. ;)
C'mon, fuel cell research...
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The whole world can't wait to see the USA fall....
:rolleyes:
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Originally posted by muckmaw
The whole world can't wait to see the USA fall....
:rolleyes:
Its not about the fall of US, its like a poker game, you guys been anting up like having a full house and finely the world wants to see your cards, and you show a pair of 2´s.
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Originally posted by crabofix
Its not about the fall of US, its like a poker game, you guys been anting up like having a full house and finely the world wants to see your cards, and you show a pair of 2´s.
What is it with Nordic countries and an over inflated sense of self-worth?
You sure you were'nt a French colony at one time?
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Originally posted by muckmaw
What is it with Nordic countries and an over inflated sense of self-worth?
You sure you were'nt a French colony at one time?
The first mentions of the place where I live (named, in historic books) comes from 800 AD. The oldest church was buildt 1153 AD.
My family has lived here, at the same location since 1648 ( confirmed year, but maybe longer).
Now tell me, where does your history begin? From where do you come? Africa, Asia, Europe or are you a Native? Maybe you come from a French, Spanish, English, Italian, Turkish or German colony? I know I am not.
New York, Smells a little Swedish as well.
But its not a matter of what has been, it is a matter of what is coming and what is coming down.
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British didn't buy it. They landed on the shore to take it, but the New Amsterdam inhabitants hated Peter Stuyvasent (their leader) so much they preferred surrender to continuing to live under his rule.
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Honestly Crab, don't you think that avatar speaks about your tone as much as anything you say?
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Originally posted by Kieran
Honestly Crab, don't you think that avatar speaks about your tone as much as anything you say?
Atleast I have one.
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Krusher: with a very large percent of the worlds GDP tied directly to US markets we will see how well this goes over in the long run. I am betting its a large bluff that will back fire in the long run.
They send us real goods in exchange of piles of paper that they store in vaults - and which keep value as long as they do not spend them. So in dollar terms their GDP looks good.
Kieran: In addition... this war in Iraq did not cause OPEC or Russia or anyone else to suddenly want to trade in Euros...
Did not cause them to do so the next day. Not even yet. It certainly stopped Iraq from trading in euros.
Iran is considering doing so but would not dear in fear of Iraq's fate.
Russia is another matter. They have loads of $$ in their currency reserve - dollars with value backed by nothing but their own willingness not to spend them, otherwise they will fall. Quite a catch-22. They trade with europeans and lose money on oil sales because of the dollar decline. They can afford to lose the value of the stored dollars now in order to prevent bigger loss in the future.
Most importantly, they cannot be bombed or invaded and do not like US throwing it's superpower status around. If they switch, otehr countries may follow or will cost us an arm and a leg to bribe them not to.
Iran may get brave enough to switch. If Saudis switch, the dollar will be dome as the world reserve currency and the quarter of US consumption will be gone - as well as many resources needed to operate internal production.
It is a multi-step process that may or may not happen - that's why I did not post about it untill rumours become reality. I certainly watched it.
One country that could bring dollar down overnight by itself is China. They should only unpeg yuan from dollar start selling their accululated reserve dollars (for gold) and dollar would be dome as a world reserve.
They ship us $10 billion worth real goods every month and just accumulate those dollars in their vaults.
They certainly cannot be invaded or bombed.
I doubt they will act decisively though - they are far too patient. They throw us bones off their table ($10 bil a month) to keep us content and grow less sufficient. They grow fast even despite the slowdown caused by waste of resources sold for dollars taken from circulation.
Then they may ask US to stop supporting Taiwan. Or do anything else they want.
They will probably unpeg their currency from the dollar and raise it above 8.28. The inflation that we export to them already causes a strain on their economy, as they have to print 82.8 billion yan every month to buy out the dollars they store.
miko
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Originally posted by crabofix
Its not about the fall of US, its like a poker game, you guys been anting up like having a full house and finely the world wants to see your cards, and you show a pair of 2´s.
A pair of deuces? Game ain't over yet.
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another reason to drill for more of our own
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Originally posted by crabofix
Now tell me, where does your history begin?
Brooklyn.
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Originally posted by miko2d
Russia is another matter.
Most importantly, they cannot be bombed or invaded
One country that could bring dollar down overnight by itself is China. They certainly cannot be invaded or bombed.
You have great confidence in a country that has by so many opinions displayed here shown itself to be an irresponsible war monger. I guess nothing is certain, except the fact that we do have at least the capability to completely annihilate the two countries you seem certain cannot be.
I know you meant we couldn't if we were rational.
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Originally posted by GScholz
I don't think the rationale of the US government has been questioned so much as it's intents and motives.
Before conspiring to destroy the US' economy perhaps you should consider that major wars have been fought over such actions.
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Originally posted by GScholz
Am I conspiring to destroy the US economy???
Let's hope no one does. The US may look like a trained tiger but keep in mind what happened to Roy Horn.
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Originally posted by GScholz
Are you going to say that the tiger only tried to protect us too? ;)
Yes, and we're easily spooked by chicks with big hair.:D
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Worse comes to worse, we'll just nuke everyone on our fall down. :D If we die, you're all gonna die too.
I see it as having positive results for the US. First, we have a foothold in the part of the world that has the worlds largest oil reserves...someone starts messing with our economy, we take control of all of it. Second, we may start looking at tapping our large oil reserves that the Greenies won't let us touch, and Third, what Kieren said about alternative energies. :)
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That tiger paid their bills and certainly kept the hyenas away. Still, not wise to get too comfortable around 'em or slap 'em upside the head. ;)
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Now... where is GRUNHERTZ ??
Hope he is ok, anyone seen him? Not like him to let so many posts go by..
GRUNHERTZ !!!
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Understand (if it is not already obvious) I am not an economist, but... seems to me as much as the world despises us they need us to consume their goods. IF at some time that consumption can be replaced by other countries, we might have something to worry about. China would be a chief example of a country that could make this happen. As it is, I don't see any European or Middle-Eastern country that can come close to our consumption. Bottom line: if our economy tanks, so does theirs.
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Kieran.
If you dont produce anything, how could you consume without imports?
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Crab,
Who says we don't produce anything?
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Originally posted by crabofix
Kieran.
If you dont produce anything, how could you consume without imports?
So now you have taken it to the point that this will cause America to cease production of all goods and services? :rofl
Hillarious! Its amazing what prejudiced ignorance and hatred will do to a person's thinking.. :lol
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Ahh, there you are Grun. Was getting worried there for a while.
Glad to see you are ok bro :)
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1. "don't" produce anything isn't the same as "can't" produce anything.
2. If economic changes make Chinese flip-flops too expensive to import, perhaps we'll call our own old flip-flop makers out of retirement. Same for TV's and Saabs and Volvos. Oh, wait, Saab and Volvo are US companies.
3. "If the US catches a cold, the rest of the world gets the flu." Yes, indeed. Things will be rosy all around the world the day the US economy totally collapses. Everyone else will do just fine though.
Please continue. This is almost as good as the "perk 'em all" threads.
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Originally posted by Toad
1. "don't" produce anything isn't the same as "can't" produce anything.
2. If economic changes make Chinese flip-flops too expensive to import, perhaps we'll call our own old flip-flop makers out of retirement. Same for TV's and Saabs and Volvos. Oh, wait, Saab and Volvo are US companies.
3. "If the US catches a cold, the rest of the world gets the flu." Yes, indeed. Things will be rosy all around the world the day the US economy totally collapses. Everyone else will do just fine though.
Please continue. This is almost as good as the "perk 'em all" threads.
Good thing. This will create a lot of new jobs and more taxed money, less wellfare and a stabile Economy of the US.
But I doubt that it will happend.
60 cents in Brazil is 60 cents, double it, it becomes 1,20$
still a whole lot less then 5,25 $
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AKIron: You have great confidence in a country that has by so many opinions displayed here shown itself to be an irresponsible war monger....
I know you meant we couldn't if we were rational.
What I ment was we cannot bomb and/or invade Russia and China in order to stop them from accepting other currencies in lieu of dollar and thus prevent dollar's downfall - like we did to Iraq.
If we start throwing nukes around, the value of the dollar will be the least of our concerns.
AKIron: Before conspiring to destroy the US' economy perhaps you should consider that major wars have been fought over such actions.
Our economy is being destroyed by ourselves. What they can do is suddenly - or gradually - withdraw the shoulder on which we were leaning.
Kieran: ...they need us to consume their goods...
I appologise, but this statement is really as stuid as it sounds. They could always buy those goods with dollars they already have in their reserves, buy out those dollars with money they print, like they do now and put the dollars back into reserves. Nobody inside will notice the difference.
Or better yet, they can stop producing goods that are sent to us in exchange for paper that is taken out of circulation and start producing what they actually need.
During New Deal we had worthless wastefull make-work projects to keep people employed. Now we are the world's make-work project.
A working man who gives some money/food to the panhhandler is not going to suffer if the panhandler disappears.
miko
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"Good thing. This will create a lot of new jobs and more taxed money, less wellfare and a stabile Economy of the US. "
The euroland unemployment rate is 8.8%, France by itself is 9.1%, the US rate in this time of "crisis" is 6.1% - I think it's europe that needs to add some jobs.
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Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
"Good thing. This will create a lot of new jobs and more taxed money, less wellfare and a stabile Economy of the US. "
The euroland unemployment rate is 8.8%, France by itself is 9.1%, the US rate in this time of "crisis" is 6.1% - I think it's europe that needs to add some jobs.
I need to put you of my Ignore list. I tend to read a lot of your posts:lol
Yes, you can swing around figures and state this is the fact.
I can state that the unemployment of France is no more then 2% and that the US has 14% unemployment.
You better show your sources to theese figures or they might just be like mine? Mine are false.
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Originally posted by miko2d
AKIron: You have great confidence in a country that has by so many opinions displayed here shown itself to be an irresponsible war monger....
I know you meant we couldn't if we were rational.
What I ment was we cannot bomb and/or invade Russia and China in order to stop them from accepting other currencies in lieu of dollar and thus prevent dollar's downfall - like we did to Iraq.
If we start throwing nukes around, the value of the dollar will be the least of our concerns.
AKIron: Before conspiring to destroy the US' economy perhaps you should consider that major wars have been fought over such actions.
Our economy is being destroyed by ourselves. What they can do is suddenly - or gradually - withdraw the shoulder on which we were leaning.
Kieran: ...they need us to consume their goods...
I appologise, but this statement is really as stuid as it sounds. They could always buy those goods with dollars they already have in their reserves, buy out those dollars with money they print, like they do now and put the dollars back into reserves. Nobody inside will notice the difference.
Or better yet, they can stop producing goods that are sent to us in exchange for paper that is taken out of circulation and start producing what they actually need.
During New Deal we had worthless wastefull make-work projects to keep people employed. Now we are the world's make-work project.
A working man who gives some money/food to the panhhandler is not going to suffer if the panhandler disappears.
miko
You might be right. I was under the delusion we were the world's largest consumer of manufactured goods. I suppose if that well runs dry the rest of the world's economies will be hunky-dory, with nary a blip on their stocks. Or maybe not.
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Yep.
That huge US trade imbalance will just have to stop totally. Nobody will want our money and we won't be able to buy Evian and other necessities.
Cripes, we may have to drink Ozark spring water!
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I'm just learning here, but... even if we do consume more than we produce, it's a market no one really wants to lose. As for manufacturing... that's easy. We just start manufacturing again and put some of these people back to work. Essential industries first of course, but eventually consumer markets as well. It will be hard for a while, but we'll be fine in the long haul.
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Originally posted by ra
Huh?
correct me if im wrong but
Iraq were traiding in € since 1999
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nice post miko
but tell me.. do you realy belive that Coalition have enough power to start war with Iran ?
Iran is a bit diferent country that Iraq..
they have at least 600 Fighters (mirages and migs)
coalition had about 550 in gulf
they are at home and most people hate iranian gov but they do not like US as well, and all of them said, that they rather fight for Islamic iran that to be under influence of US (well this was true 6 moths ago and i dont thing it gonna change after parade of sux in iraq :)) )
and last most funny thing is, that iran have some of S-300 and a lot of most cool russian crap :D
so i dont thing there is chance to make some changes by war
whats your opinion ?
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Originally posted by threedays
nice post miko
but tell me.. do you realy belive that Coalition have enough power to start war with Iran ?
Iran is a bit diferent country that Iraq..
they have at least 600 Fighters (mirages and migs)
coalition had about 550 in gulf
they are at home and most people hate iranian gov but they do not like US as well, and all of them said, that they rather fight for Islamic iran that to be under influence of US (well this was true 6 moths ago and i dont thing it gonna change after parade of sux in iraq :)) )
and last most funny thing is, that iran have some of S-300 and a lot of most cool russian crap :D
so i dont thing there is chance to make some changes by war
whats your opinion ?
It's one thing to wage war with a country and another to occupy it. Iran would fall inside of a week but facing suicide bombers for years is rather unpalatable.
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iron so you mean that Iran can be defeated in 1 week ?
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1 day if we really applied ourselves.
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i guess you are not able to see spike of your nose in past few years .....
lol
may be you should visit that country and try to calculate it again :D
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I guess you don't know about nuclear weapons. They end wars pretty quick.
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bla bla bla we have nuke blabla bla we have nuke....
any results but strong words ?
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Hehe, well like I said, 1 week non-nuke. That's if we go in to defeat the government and those bold enough to bear arms against our military. And, if we're not so worried about protecting civilians like we did in Iraq.
Ya never know, we may have a chance to find out.
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Who can say how long it would take to defete Iran.
1 week? 3weeks? or does it even really matter?
I think the really important part is how long is America going to put up with 20-30 on average dead US troops a week?
And for the life of me I am still trying to find a really good reason for it.
Ok OK we took saddum good he needed to go.
Now what?
The very people we freeded are killing our troops!!
I kinda get the point they dont want us there.
I dont have the answers i dont think anyone does and Bush has got himslef in pretty deep.
I voted for the dude but I dont know bout him now?
The economy is in the toilet and the middle east hates us.
Indeed the wole world is watching us to see what we do next.
I can only hope wisdom prevails.
I consider myself a patriot and I Love America I serverd Her as did some of you.
But it pains me greatly to see on the news every night that 2 or 3 or 5 more Us troops have been killed.
People they are being asked to do what they where not trained for!
To act as boarder guards and police men.
That aint the role of the military.
I never had kids But if I did they would be of the age and I am sure they would be in the military. so i take it personale when I hear of a fellow American that has died for a I country (Iraq) that
could really care less about them.
Ask yourself If it was your son or brother would his life be worth it?
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Originally posted by mrblack
The very people we freeded are killing our troops!!
I kinda get the point they dont want us there.
Sorry but that's just not true. The people conducting the guerilla war against us were Saddam's or Osama's supporters. After all, he didn't oppress those millions all by his lonesome.
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And you know this how?
CNN? Please:rofl
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Common sense, you know it's not true how?
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Originally posted by AKIron
Common sense, you know it's not true how?
Well I like to think that our intell and military has improved since
viet nam!
You do see that we are incurring pretty much that same casulity
rate that we had in viet nam?
So we have suppremecie over the air we have all this great Intell.
And we have all these troops who in my opinion are the best in the world with all there high tech gear.
And there being picked off by a bunch of goat hearders:mad:
Sounds alot like viet nam just different part of the world.
Does any body have casulity rates for viet nam?
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Originally posted by AKIron
Common sense, you know it's not true how?
LOL
i trough that common sense is only problem affecting woman 7 days a month
:D
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Originally posted by mrblack
Well I like to think that our intell and military has improved since
viet nam!
You do see that we are incurring pretty much that same casulity
rate that we had in viet nam?
So we have suppremecie over the air we have all this great Intell.
And we have all these troops who in my opinion are the best in the world with all there high tech gear.
And there being picked off by a bunch of goat hearders:mad:
Sounds alot like viet nam just different part of the world.
Does any body have casulity rates for viet nam?
You're the one insisting the attacks are done by goat herders. I'm saying they are somewhat organized goat herders with guns and dynamite and allegiance to either Saddam, Osama, or some other equally anti-US middle easterner.
Do I like it that my countrymen are being killed almost daily? Hell no. I was in the military for 20 years and consider these guys my brothers.
Is it a necessary step to ensure our security? Since I don't have access to all the classified information I will defer to those elected and appointed officials that do.
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well Iron my friend have nice question....
ummm and how many hours do you need you defeat N korea ? :D
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Originally posted by threedays
well Iron my friend have nice question....
ummm and how many hours do you need you defeat N korea ? :D
You need to be a little more specific. I think 5 more years should do it.
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well so iran with 70 mil of people within 1 week
and N korea with 90 mil with in 5 years .... whups .. hows that ?
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Well, we'll only "defeat" Iran with military action. On the other hand, North Korea is thrashing about in death throes as we speak.
Actually, Iran may already be coming around to a more western way of life. There seems to be a growing dissatisfaction among the youth with the fanatical devotion to Islam required.
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Mr threedays.
It is obvious that you dont know about AK-Iron and Math. Dont confuse him with figures, he just repeats what he heard the others talk about.
And the guys that are killing US troops are welltrained spetznatz armed with Superguns, loaded with Silverbullets. Cause thats the only thing that could hurt them.
Goathearders??? :rofl
Now, Now, be seriouse
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Originally posted by crabofix
Mr threedays.
It is obvious that you dont know about AK-Iron and Math. Dont confuse him with figures, he just repeats what he heard the others talk about.
And the guys that are killing US troops are welltrained spetznatz armed with Superguns, loaded with Silverbullets. Cause thats the only thing that could hurt them.
Goathearders??? :rofl
Now, Now, be seriouse
I won't fault your spelling but there is no hyphen in AKIron. You're right about me and math anyhow.
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yes iron a lot of people doesnt like contemporary iranian goverment..... i spoke to people whitch has been in jail as well...
but alll of them said if Us will come with weapons in hands, we will fight back.... there is no diference, they already had you there once, and they are not interesting in pseudo freedom
anyway, you are very smart and i probably never been there as you know, so Crabofix is right :D
fuk i better shut up coz my english is getting more close to my mother language, already 1:49AM here ...
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Lets say the world runs away from the US dollar. Ok so you have the US with a worthless currency.
Now what happens to all the other countries in the world that depend on the US for their exports? Ummm no market anymore.
Now what happens to the price of US product in the world? Hmmmmm great stuff for practically free. Lets buy more.
Wait the US must buy Arab oil and jap cars etc. No actually they do not. Domestic energy becomes much more attractive. When energy prices rise alternatives such as conservation become much more attractive. Just look at what happened when OPEC screwed the world in the 70's. The price collapsed and stayed that way for almost 20 years. The Oil Sands in Canada have more oil in them than Saudi Arabia does and it just depends on the price of the oil (in US dollars) how economic it is to produce it.
Jap cars. No market anymore for them. The Jap economy dies. Japan no longer can afford to import European products as they will keep the Yen pegged to the US dollar. Where will Europe export all its subsidized farm goods and manufactured goods now that they cost a fortune?
China already is being pressured by the US to revalue its currency. It will not. The only reason Chinese products are so cheap is because the Chinese government keeps its currency artificially low to encourage exports at the expense of the living standard of its people.
Oh and finally Gold becomes the new world standard. Guess who controls the majority of the worlds production of Gold? Ummm Canada and the US.
This whole Euro thing is just wistful thinking.
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Originally posted by Kieran
I'm just learning here,
Same here.
but... even if we do consume more than we produce, it's a market no one really wants to lose.
But why not lose it.
Say the US trades France 100 laptops for 100 chiars. Great everyone benefits. The US gets some wine, and the French get some caculators.
But apparently with the trade deficate the US gets 100 chairs and France gets US dollars. French government than taxes it's citizens, buys the dollars from the carpenter with those francs and sticks the US dollars in a vault.
US gets chairs, Frances gets pieces of paper that it can't use, because if it uses pieces of paper the paper looses value. So France is really getting nothing usable in exchange. For all intents and purposes the carpenter is working for the US for free.
Now apparently, it would be much better for France to let that carpenter go out of business, and have him work in an industry that would actually benefit France.
As for manufacturing... that's easy. We just start manufacturing again and put some of these people back to work. Essential industries first of course, but eventually consumer markets as well. It will be hard for a while, but we'll be fine in the long haul.
Yes it would be hard. Because meanwhilel US chair manufactures go out of business, because they can't compete with the price of the "free" chairs from France. Not only does his business go, but the infrasture for the chair industry and the know-how involve with setting up the infrustrure and producing chairs. Long, painful process to relearn.
At least I believe this is what miko is saying, if I remember his past examples correctly.
And please don't take this as anti-americanism. If I truely was I would gleefully keep my mouth shut and not try and give this warning.
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Kieran: You might be right. I was under the delusion we were the world's largest consumer of manufactured goods.
True. We are consuming $500 billion worth every year giving nothing in return.
I suppose if that well runs dry the rest of the world's economies will be hunky-dory, with nary a blip on their stocks. Or maybe not.
Well is a source. We are sink. When chinese $100 bil a year well runs dry and Japanese $100 a year well runs dry and evan French $10 bil a year runs dry, we will end up with less stuff.
Our dollar is not backed up by goods or taxing power of US economy, it is backed up by goods and taxing power of Chinese and Japanese and other economies. The dollar only holds as high as it is because they artificially support it - by buying it out. They may stop.
GScholz: I think what Miko is trying to say is that you're consuming more than you're worth.
Than we produce. About 25% more according to my calculations. And asians and europeans of course consume that much less. So we can strut all uppity and boast how much better we live here.
Kieran: I'm just learning here, but... even if we do consume more than we produce, it's a market no one really wants to lose
It's a market that politically-influential exporters (labor and industry) of those countries do not want to lose - even though it is paid by the taxes collected from their countrymen.
Instead of paying people welfare for not doing anything, like in US, they end up paying "welfare" to their export industries to produce stuff for US. Do we want to rely on this continuing? Do you even think that our government is trying to preserve this situation? We have our own special interest groups that do not want our consumers get cheep foreign goods.
So our government raises tariffs on lumber and steel and other stuff and just recently demanded chinese to stop supporting dollar.
Those people are completely oblivious to the operation of the economics principles.
threedays: nice post miko
but tell me.. do you realy belive that Coalition have enough power to start war with Iran ?
Iran is a bit diferent country that Iraq..
I am not sure. We certainly do not have troops left to occupy it. we could destroy them in a matter of weeks.
But we do not even have to defeat them in order to make them stop accepting Euro for their oil. We could just find some excuse and blockade their ports until they behave.
AKIron: Common sense, you know it's not true how?
Right. SH was bad so he oppressed. SH oppressed so he was bad.
SH was evil, so he must have lied. SH lied, which proves he was evil.
Your common sense is nothing but circular logic.
We find no WMDs and no mass graves in Iraq but a population that have been armed with millions of AK-47s and an army composed of oppressed majority and and are supposed to believe he was oppressing them.
miko
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Originally posted by Thrawn
Long, painful process to relearn.
Sorta doubt that. There's folks here that make superb chairs. Their knowledge could rapidly be spread around.
How long did it take us to teach a million farm boys how to fly in WW2?
Just one example.
The knowledge base is here. It'd probably take longer to build the machinery.
But then you have that example of the guy that rigged up the ID flasher in GW 1. Two weeks and it was in theater? Something like that.
As Mark Twain sorta said "reports of our death are greatly exaggerated". Y'all might want to wait till were actually in our grave to dance on it.
:lol
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Say the US trades France 100 laptops for 100 chiars. Great everyone benefits. The US gets some wine, and the French get some caculators.
But apparently with the trade deficate the US gets 100 chairs and France gets US dollars. French government than taxes it's citizens, buys the dollars from the carpenter with those francs and sticks the US dollars in a vault.
[/B]Whoever wrote this has no idea how international trade nor currency markets work.
US gets chairs, Frances gets pieces of paper that it can't use, because if it uses pieces of paper the paper looses value. So France is really getting nothing usable in exchange. For all intents and purposes the carpenter is working for the US for free.
:rofl
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Originally posted by Toad
Sorta doubt that. There's folks here that make superb chairs. Their knowledge could rapidly be spread around.
How long did it take us to teach a million farm boys how to fly in WW2?
Just one example.
The knowledge base is here. It'd probably take longer to build the machinery.
It was an example Toad. But yes the knowledge on how to make chairs is there, but if the trend continues? What if France stops making those chairs for the US? There won't be enough chair manfactures to produce the chairs the US needs. Standard of living falls.
As Mark Twain sorta said "reports of our death are greatly exaggerated". Y'all might want to wait till were actually in our grave to dance on it.
Cripes, I'm not dancing. Maybe **** won't go down. I'm just trying ot give a heads up. Take it or leave it.
Habu, "Whoever wrote this has no idea how international trade nor currency markets work."
Than please enlighten me as to how I'm wrong.
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Habu: Lets say the world runs away from the US dollar. Ok so you have the US with a worthless currency.
So fat so good.
Now what happens to all the other countries in the world that depend on the US for their exports? Ummm no market anymore.
Tough. They will use the same tax money that paid for exports to US (via buying dollars) to pay unemployment benefits to those workers untill they find work producing stuff they really need inside. Their salaries drop under pressure but prices of goods drop even more - resulting in increase of real wages. Which is no surprise since the wealth will not be leaving the country.
Now what happens to the price of US product in the world? Hmmmmm great stuff for practically free. Lets buy more.
True. They will buy stuff. Of course we will have problem producing stuff for a while becasue a lot of our manufacturing depends on imported raw material.
Domestic energy becomes much more attractive. When energy prices rise alternatives such as conservation become much more attractive.
Yes, eventually. But for a while we wil have huge disruptions, deprivations due to loss or imported goods and domestic production. Most likely we will experience civil unrest and a breakdown of civil order for a few months.
Jap cars. No market anymore for them. The Jap economy dies. Japan no longer can afford to import European products as they will keep the Yen pegged to the US dollar.
You contradict yourself. You just said the dollar will fail because they will unpeg the yen. So it will not fall but raise, not burdened by dollar. And Japanese do not buy european stuff with dollar received from US. They do not sell dollars, they buy them and take them out of circulation. That is what pegging is all about. They buy dollars at 120 yan while chinese buy dollars at 8.28 yuan, not sell them for products or other currency.
Oh and finally Gold becomes the new world standard. Guess who controls the majority of the worlds production of Gold? Ummm Canada and the US.
Production of gold is miniscule - less than 2% of the total stock of gold. And US controls only a part of it. Africa and Russia produce a lot of gold.
Even if US could ramp up the production of gold, the same would happen to the value of gold that happens to the value of dollar.
Thrawn - you've got it right and are probably more eloquent than I am. The only thing you've left out is civil unrest that will occur during the readjustment period. As a canadian you do not have to worry about it as much as we do - only about some spillover effects. You will have a refugee problem.
miko
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Habu: Whoever wrote this has no idea how international trade nor currency markets work.
I wrote this. There is no free trade and no free currency market where US trade is concerned.
The trade deficit and currency reserves of countries are public data. There is no equal value goods exchange. US gets extra $500 bil a year of goods, foreign currency reserves (dollars and T-notes) increase by $500 bil a year. We trade goods for coloured paper.
Chinese government is buying $10 billion dollars a months at 8.28 yuan per dollar. What kind of trade is that?
Chinese have trade deficit with the world. They are borrowing money and selling claims to capital in order to finance their growth. Why the heck would they borrow money instead of using those hundreds billions of dollars they have stored? Because as soon as they stop buying dollars at 8.28 and start selling them the dollar will sink.
You have a different explanation for it other than that it sounds ridiculous and cannot continue indefinitely? It certainly does but it is what's going on.
miko
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Let's assume the worst happens as Miko suggests might... this country still has the raw materials and resources to resume manufacturing and production. In a way, this would be good news; I'm not a big NAFTA fan anyway. Of course the depression we'd have to suffer first would be unprecedented, but having been through this before I feel we'd come through ok.
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Originally posted by AKIron
Is it a necessary step to ensure our security? Since I don't have access to all the classified information I will defer to those elected and appointed officials that do.
Do you think without giving anything away maybe the American public should maybe have it told to us the real reasone why our sons and fathers are dying?
And Iron Im right down the road in Dallas /plano If you ever want to got together to trade old military stories.
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Originally posted by Thrawn
Standard of living falls.
OH, that'll be the end of us fer sure.
The US actually ceased to exist during my parent's time. Great Depression, you know. No one survived... all life ended. Pretty sad.
I'm with Kieran on this one... might be the BEST thing that could happen to the country for resetting the gyros and getting the craniums out of the anal vents all across the land.
Tough times? Sure. Better on the other side, with a much more intelligent national outlook? Undoubtedly.
For example, my folks.. the only lucky pair the survived the Depression... are still not wasteful people, nor are they easily swayed by glittery things.
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Kieran: Let's assume the worst happens as Miko suggests might... this country still has the raw materials and resources to resume manufacturing and production.
Absolutely. Well, free trade is beneficial to both sides compared to autarchy but the main problem here is wasting our productive capacity in exchange for current income and losing control of one's destiny.
It would be much less desruptive to correct the situation as soon as possible in the controllable manner. The fed just has to stop printing dollars and raise bank reserve requirements (preferably to 100%), let interests raise to natural level and recession correct the misallocation of resources as well as trade balance. Of course it will mean problem for the next election and what poliician would do that?
miko
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Originally posted by Toad
OH, that'll be the end of us fer sure.
The US actually ceased to exist during my parent's time. Great Depression, you know. No one survived... all life ended. Pretty sad.
Aw for crying out loud Toad, where did I claim it would be. Stop putting words in my mouth, will ya.
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Originally posted by crabofix
I need to put you of my Ignore list. I tend to read a lot of your posts:lol
Yes, you can swing around figures and state this is the fact.
I can state that the unemployment of France is no more then 2% and that the US has 14% unemployment.
You better show your sources to theese figures or they might just be like mine? Mine are false.
http://www1.oecd.org/std/surjuly03a.htm
http://www.oecd.org
These figures are of course right wing Bush lies. BTW you really didnt come in here thinking the EU/Euro countries had lower unemployment than the USA? :rofl
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Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
BTW you really didnt come in here thinking the EU/Euro countries had lower unemployment than the USA? :rofl
Nope, but wanted to know the source of info.
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Yeah, I ignored that 14% unemployment nonsense. What is the point?
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Originally posted by miko2d
Habu: Whoever wrote this has no idea how international trade nor currency markets work.
I wrote this. There is no free trade and no free currency market where US trade is concerned.
The trade deficit and currency reserves of countries are public data. There is no equal value goods exchange. US gets extra $500 bil a year of goods, foreign currency reserves (dollars and T-notes) increase by $500 bil a year. We trade goods for coloured paper.
Chinese government is buying $10 billion dollars a months at 8.28 yuan per dollar. What kind of trade is that?
Chinese have trade deficit with the world. They are borrowing money and selling claims to capital in order to finance their growth. Why the heck would they borrow money instead of using those hundreds billions of dollars they have stored? Because as soon as they stop buying dollars at 8.28 and start selling them the dollar will sink.
You have a different explanation for it other than that it sounds ridiculous and cannot continue indefinitely? It certainly does but it is what's going on.
miko
What is happening in China is this. Total exports from China are less than 10% of the total inflow of foreign exchange into the country. About 40% is being used for investments in plants and equipment etc. The rest is currency speculation. The Chinese government does not want the yuan to rise as it will kill the growth in exports. This is a temporary situation. The money that is excess is being parked in banks and will become available for loans etc that will encourage further growth in the economy. Companies in China want to keep their profits in Yuen as they are afraid the currency will rise. This creates enormous pressure on the currency.
But as in all attempts to manipulate foreign exchange values. Eventually market pressure will become too great to resist.
Market pressure is caused by all the little guys like me buy from China. I will gladly pay up front for goods knowing I am locking in my price (as long as I trust the vendor of course), and from the companies who own subsidiaries in China who park their profits there.
It is not about the US dollar being worthless. It is all about the government of China refusing to allow the Yuen to rise so that they can grow their economy at the expense of their citizen's living standards.
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Habu: What is happening in China is this. Total exports from China are less than 10% of the total inflow of foreign exchange into the country.
I believe your number is way off. I only have the numbers for 2001 handy.
Current account balance - surplus of $17 bil (sold more then bought in that year)
exports of goods - $266 bil; export of services - $33 bil
capital and finance accounts - $34 billion in the surplus.
It looks like the number was 85% rather than 10% in 2001 and could hardly have increased 10 times (their trade grew as well) without me noticing...
Current Account Balance = The balance of trade +
The net diff between services exports and imports (tourism) +
The net diff between income flowing from assets in foreign +countries
The net diff between inflows/outflows of unilateral transfers (aid/gifts)
Balance of payments = Current Account Balance + Capital Account Balance
The money that is excess is being parked in banks and will become available for loans etc that will encourage further growth in the economy.
At the same time making those hundreds billlions of dollars available for spending will sharply drop the exchange course dollar.
Companies in China want to keep their profits in Yuen as they are afraid the currency will rise. This creates enormous pressure on the currency.
Actually, it's mostly because they need Yuen to pay wages, dividends and taxes. After which they do not keep the profits but invest them into expansion.
It is not about the US dollar being worthless.
It's backed by willingness of China's central bank to pay 8.28 yan for it.
It is all about the government of China refusing to allow the Yuen to rise so that they can grow their economy at the expense of their citizen's living standards.
You are right about the damage to their living standards. You are wrong about their economy growing faster because a fraction of their workforce and resources are distracted on production of goods for US for which they get dollars that must not be spent.
If they did not have that part of the export industries, the resources and labor would drop in price, making it even more profitable to expand production, so their growth rate would have been higher.
miko
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I have been busy with the crazy cattle and soybean markets (cattle have been higher for 11 days in a row) have you looked at the European bond markets - what have they been doing?
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question to you Miko2d
I have some savings in dollars. I'm thinking about converting them to euro ( i have accounts in europe ) simply because expected drop in value of dollar vs euro.
Questions:
1. With current raise and markets and slow gain in dollar vs euro value - what is your estimate of the best time to make the change ? I'd like to allow it to grow a tad before converting.
2. When do you think the drop in exchange rate will occur ? I guess we're both reading economist a lot based on some statemetns you made so we're talking about the same thing. I'm estimating mid next year. What's your opinon ?
3. How will the drop of dollar affect euro ? Already some voices in europe suggesting that it's overvalued and suggetsion to lower it via dollar. That ties into point 1. Do you think that overall drop in value of all currencies will affect dollar vs euro exchange negatively ?
Just wondering...
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ygsmilo: I have been busy with the crazy cattle and soybean markets (cattle have been higher for 11 days in a row) have you looked at the European bond markets - what have they been doing?
I am sorry, ygsmilo. There is nothing I can advise you short term. The economic theory I subscribe to firmly states that no process involving human action can have constant numerical properties or be a subject to quantitative prediction. You can easily use simple math (well, relatively simple) to find the current trend which will work while the prevailing human preferences persist, but by definition you will not be able to predict by looking at the trend whether, let alone when those preferences will change.
The theory will at least predict how they will change but not exact scenarios or dates/magnitudes.
Which theory can ever predict when the fed lowers the rates one time too many?
What is "Austrian Economics"? (http://www.mises.org/austrian.asp)
Dollar must fall or default or the US economy must if it follows the trends and the causal mechanisms are all working to worsen the trends, not reverse them. But when it will happen and how exactly? Who knows. Austrian Carl Menger, the originator of the Austrian School of Economics predicted great conflict and devastation of WWI and preserved his wealth (in gold and scandinavian bonds) when all austrians lost their shirts in 1920s - he died in 1924. But he made his prediction in 1880 and allegedely it was the pessimism and feeling of inevitable disaster that caused him not to produce any great works after his 1971 "Principles of Economics".
Mises described the details of the downfall of Soviet Socialism in 1920 - when everyone believed they were the superior system. He was correct - for 70 years. He was a pessimist but kept producing one great work after another - 5 total of classical status and a whole slew of minor works. He said in 1960s that his hedge against incoming great inflation was his advanced age - he died in 1973 aged 92.
Only austrian economists were saying the gold was indervalued and will jump in price while everybody else expected it to drop to $7/ounce when Nixon unpegged it at $35.
Long term - it's better to be in marketable commodities (gold?, land, alcohol, cigarettes, fishing hooks, ammunition) and currencies backed by real stuff. Also, remember that in times of crises the governments often confiscated people's holdings of marketable commodities/securites - like US confiscation of gold in 1932, Russian and South Amarian confiscation of dollar accounts, etc.
Dollar can jump up 25% tomorrow bacause chinese may as well devalue as appreciate their currency and europeans as well. In the long term the US elderly will have to reire and in 2013 the SSA trust will be empty and money have to come from somewhere.
fd ski question to you Miko2d
I have some savings in dollars. I'm thinking about converting them to euro ( i have accounts in europe ) simply because expected drop in value of dollar vs euro.
You can open a foreign currency account (FDIC insured) in an american bank. Check the Everbank World Markets (http://www.everbank.com) - a division of the First Alliance Bank. Forbes wrote highly about them. They charge 0.5-0.7% for currency conversion, no other fees. You even get interest of the country on the deposits above certain sum. Aussies and Kwis pay around 4% and S. Africans >8% compared to our <1%. You can also invest into a composite "index" of currencies and even Chinese currency, if you want to bet they will unpeg from the dollar as Bush demands. Especially since in this rare case Bush inadvertenly is in greement with common sense... :)
Of course if SHTF, the US government may get to those money easier than to your european accounts. How would I open one, btw? What bank would you recommend? What are the tax implications.
When do you think the drop in exchange rate will occur?
As I said before to ygsmilo, the theory I use states that such kind of predictions cannot possibly be made. So the answer is anytime. I do not believe the dollar will survive the real hard-limit crunch of mid of the next decade but its downfall can be triggered by some event any moment even before that.
I am not trying to get rich here - I believe wealth makes it ahrd to raise good children. I just intend them to survive the downfall like my ancestors survived 1917-1920s in Russia when everythingw as sold by a million and lot of people died of hunger.
3. How will the drop of dollar affect euro?
They will try to match our devaluation printing money for a while but when the strain on their economy becomes unbearable (the peg-induced expansion is putting quite a strain on the Chinese economy already) they will cut the ropes and let us drown. Hopefully they will do it quickly enough to avaid a major collapce of their economies and will be able to send us shipments of food...
US was trying to match the british pound devaluation in late 1920s and that greatly contributed to the great depression. At the same time the collapse of german curency in early 1920s did not cause great problems elsewhere.
miko