Aces High Bulletin Board
General Forums => The O' Club => Topic started by: AKIron on February 11, 2023, 12:40:52 PM
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeSu9fBJ2sI
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I watched that but I had to read the locked threads first. :D
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I paused the video after the scenario was explained and have not restarted it.
The coin is only going to ever have a 50/50 chance of landing on heads. When she's awakened, she doesn't know if it's Monday or Tuesday and it doesn't really matter. The coin was tossed one time and it was either heads or tails. The only difference is how many times she was awakened for the one coin toss.
Heads is a 50/50 chance. She's going to be awakened no matter what the coin lands on and the coin has only a 50/50 chance of landing on heads.
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I mean, this isn't even a puzzle to me. I don't get it.
If she was asked what are the odds that' she's been awakened twice - it's 50/50.
There's no conundrum at all that I see. They toss the coin one time and it's either heads or tails. it doesn't matter if she's awake or asleep. Nothing changes, even from her point of view.
The only thing she can't know is whether or not she was awakened twice or once. Heads or tails. She doesn't know which, but it's 50/50
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I continued the video
The guys says "there are 3 possible states. Monday heads, Monday Tails or Tuesday tails."
That's not correct. There are only two possible states FOR THE COIN TOSS. either it was heads and it's Monday, or it was tails and it's either Monday or Tuesday
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It comes down on how a person applies the law of probability.
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I think he is wrong in saying it's not the same as the three doors question. I think it is the same, a matter of perspective and knowing what the possibilities are.
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I honestly do not get the issue.
It doesn't matter what day it is or anything else. It's one coin toss each week and it's always going to be a 50/50 chance that its heads.
The only difference between heads and tails is the number of times they wake her up to ask.
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There's also a chance that it can land on end.
Nothing has absolute improbability.
Coogan
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There's also a chance that it can land on end.
Nothing has absolute improbability.
Coogan
In that case it doesn't count and they flip it again. ;)
What're the odds that would happen two times in a row?
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In that case it doesn't count and they flip it again. ;)
What're the odds that would happen two times in a row?
:rofl True.
Coogan
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In that case it doesn't count and they flip it again. ;)
What're the odds that would happen two times in a row?
I once dropped a cigarette butt on the ground and it landed on the filter end, standing up and I thought, wow I bet that never happens again. A couple of years later it did. ;)
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Let's say the odds of flipping a coin and it lands on it's edge is 1 in a gazillion. Let's say you flip a coin and it lands on it's edge. What are the odds of the next flip doing the same? Still 1 in a gazillion. The odds against flipping two in a row are far greater before you flip one than the odds of flipping two in a row after you already flipped one.
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I once picked up a guitar string from the carpet. As I picked it up, the curled far end briefly got caught in the carpet, then sprung and went right into a wall AC outlet and shorted it out while the other end was still in my hand. The string glowed orange for a second and left a burn mark on the wall.
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Let's say the odds of flipping a coin and it lands on it's edge is 1 in a gazillion. Let's say you flip a coin and it lands on it's edge. What are the odds of the next flip doing the same? Still 1 in a gazillion. The odds against flipping two in a row are far greater before you flip one than the odds of flipping two in a row after you already flipped one.
True. The odds are against you, but there is still a chance. Sure probably not going to happen... Or is it?
Coogan
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True. The odds are against you, but there is still a chance. Sure probably not going to happen... Or is it?
Coogan
The odds of winning the lottery are infinitesimal but still far far greater if you buy a ticket than if you don't. I buy one every now and then when they grow into the hundreds of millions. Wife says it would ruin me if I won. No doubt she's right but I wouldn't mind a little ruining.
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I know I was buying those lottery tickets here in Michigan last year, when the jackpot was $1.9 Billion.
Never won diddly...
Coogan
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The odds of winning the lottery are infinitesimal but still far far greater if you buy a ticket than if you don't. I buy one every now and then when they grow into the hundreds of millions. Wife says it would ruin me if I won. No doubt she's right but I wouldn't mind a little ruining.
People say money can't buy you happiness and they are probably right but I'll bet money can buy your way out of a whole lot of misery. ;)
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I'm gonna go with 50% chance model. I think the third model is over complicating it. The person, no matter the day, always has a 50-50 chance of choosing heads or tails. Seeing that they are always unaware of the day, or how many times they have awoken before. They have no basis or enference on how to choose. Therefore they will always have a 50/50 chance. So, even if tails was selected every time and woke up Monday and Tuesday everytime, the person would never know that, therefore they still have only 2 options heads or tails. 50/50.
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I'm gonna go with 50% chance model. I think the third model is over complicating it. The person, no matter the day, always has a 50-50 chance of choosing heads or tails. Seeing that they are always unaware of the day, or how many times they have awoken before. They have no basis or enference on how to choose. Therefore they will always have a 50/50 chance. So, even if tails was selected every time and woke up Monday and Tuesday everytime, the person would never know that, therefore they still have only 2 options heads or tails. 50/50.
and that would be correct.
the fact that she's sleeping, awakened, what day it is, or if she knows anything or not have absolutely no bearing on the outcome or the odds. I don't even understand why people think of it as some kind of conundrum.
It's simple. They toss a coin only one time. 50/50 chance it's heads. If it's tails, they wake her up two days in a row - and those are the only outcomes.
Same thing if I said: flip a coin. If it's heads you get an apple on Monday. If it's tails you get an apple on Monday and an apple on Tuesday.
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I'm gonna go with 50% chance model. I think the third model is over complicating it. The person, no matter the day, always has a 50-50 chance of choosing heads or tails. Seeing that they are always unaware of the day, or how many times they have awoken before. They have no basis or enference on how to choose. Therefore they will always have a 50/50 chance. So, even if tails was selected every time and woke up Monday and Tuesday everytime, the person would never know that, therefore they still have only 2 options heads or tails. 50/50.
3rd option pee.
semp
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The process was explained to her. She knows the odds. Heads, she will be awakened once. Tails twice.
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The process was explained to her. She knows the odds. Heads, she will be awakened once. Tails twice.
But she won't know that she's already been awakened.
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She knows the odds. That 2 out of 3 times she is awakened the coin will have been tails.
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She knows the odds. That 2 out of 3 times she is awakened the coin will have been tails.
Every time she wakes up, she knows that the coin was tossed. That's all she knows. It doesn't even matter what she knows. The only question she has to answer is "What is the probability that the coin came up heads"
The odds of her waking up are 100 percent.
The odds that's she wakes up twice in a week are 50%
The odds that she wakes up once is 50%
There is no mystery and there is no controversy of math or philosophy.
Each time she wakes up, the probability that the coin came up heads is 50%
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It's interesting that the likes and dislikes are almost 3 to 1 for likes. I figured it'd be more half and half. I think it's because he explains it well.
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I don't get what people are thinking, or even why he thinks it's a riddle.
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Just to recap.
Heads = she wakes up Monday
Tails = she wakes up Monday and Tuesday.
No riddle at all.
There is no "one in three" probability for the coin toss. It's 50/50
There's "no one in three" probability that it's a Tuesday when she's awake either. It's 50/50