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General Forums => Aces High General Discussion => Topic started by: Dadtallica on March 18, 2023, 01:53:16 PM

Title: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 18, 2023, 01:53:16 PM
I hear lots of people referring back to the good old days of hundreds of people flooding the main arenas with fights and pilots galore. I am speaking mostly about USA prime time but it trickles to the rest. I left the game to children and life sometime in 2011 I think it was but am not sure exactly. (someone can check Ratpak1’s last flight if they want. Wish I could have it still.)

Whenever it was, the numbers then were not too different then now. I think on any regular weeknight there were probably 200 or so total people playing split across three arenas.

Maybe 2/3 or so of which were in the late war arena and most of the rest in the mid war where I spent most of my time. No jets! ENY then rarely seemed liked a hindrance but it creeped up on us now and then. People would just switch arenas if it bothered them. I remember the FSO’s would get up to 400 people maybe. I’m basing this all on my anecdotal memory but I am sure someone will come with receipts. My memory is old lol.

At any rate can someone give me an idea what the numbers were like between 2012ish to today? I came back about six months ago. When were the three main arenas scrapped for one arena?

Also a bit lucky for me, the game changed visually in a dramatic fashion. Bases, and strats and all sorts of things are nothing like before. There’s freaking battleships that one shot hangers! I almost feel spoiled that it still feels somewhat new to me. Still not sure where some stuff even is. I could see how someone who started with the game as it is now might feel slighted about future development.

I guess for me it’s ok as I am rather indifferent on the number of people playing. Doubtful I would stop playing now that I am back if they go up or down. Everyone has their threshold one on both sides I suppose. I will say the number of people who have passed since I left is a bit humbling. Some big names.  :salute

I appreciate anyone who can give me some player context during the 10+ years I missed.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Lusche on March 18, 2023, 04:30:09 PM
At any rate can someone give me an idea what the numbers were like between 2012ish to today? I came back about six months ago. When were the three main arenas scrapped for one arena?


This graph shows the number of pilots with at least one kill or death per tour in the (LW) main arena:

(https://i.imgur.com/FWvRLYG.png)

In 2012 there were more than 4 times the players playing in the MA, which also roughly correlates to about quadruple numbers online (I track total played hours, too). So at balanced LW arenas, this means more than twice the numbers in the arena than we are having now.
But a much bigger difference it made to those playing outside prime time, when the arena limit was suspended, and almost all players ended up in a single LW arena. At that time, MW, EW and WW1 were already almost empty outside prime time. And on the very popular titanic tuesdays, all limits were disbanded, and almost all players went into the single LW arena.

The four main arena format ended with AH3 in September 2016.

For illustration purposes, this is what the LW arenas population looked like on a thursday in 2010:

(https://i.imgur.com/0Q6bLjr.png)

As a non US player, I still had the chance to play with 150 other pilots in the early evening (in 2012 this would have been around 100). Today it's usually about 30-40 at the same time. Earlier in the day, I sometimes end up with nominally 10 players, with at least half of them AFK tower residents. Last tour, I even ended up being the only active player for an hour one day.


Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: oboe on March 18, 2023, 04:40:59 PM
Thank you for this presentation, Lusche.  Incredible answer to his question.


Two remarks:

- What happened in late summer of 2017 that caused the spike in numbers?  Was that AH III's release on Steam?

- If you look closely at the end of 2022, you'll see the decline has reversed, and there has been a small, month-over-month growth in numbers.   :banana:   I feel good about that because I felt like I have been noticing more players in the arena during US prime time.   

Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Lusche on March 18, 2023, 04:53:50 PM
Thank you for this presentation, Lusche.  Incredible answer to his question.


Two remarks:

- What happened in late summer of 2017 that caused the spike in numbers?  Was that AH III's release on Steam?

Yes. There was an enormous number of downloads on steam when AHIII was released, which isn't even properly reflected by this chart because most of them never left the runway to die in combat.

- If you look closely at the end of 2022, you'll see the decline has reversed, and there has been a small, month-over-month growth in numbers.   :banana:   I feel good about that because I felt like I have been noticing more players in the arena during US prime time.

In winter, the numbers always go up a little, but almost every time they are still lower than one year before.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 18, 2023, 04:56:35 PM
Thank you Lusche! I figured you to another would bring the receipts. Great stuff. I spend all building PowerBI reports… where do you get all this data?

Will be interesting to see if the current bump in players is sustained through the summer. I do remember the outside arenas emptying out at off hours. Maybe because I spent most of my time in MW it feels a bit the same to me.

Like I said I will play anyway. What did you do all by yourself for an  hour lol??
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Lusche on March 18, 2023, 05:03:05 PM
Thank you Lusche! I figured you to another would bring the receipts. Great stuff. I spend all building PowerBI reports… where do you get all this data?

Plane stats for the names (& thus number) of pilots, score page for their data like hours played in different modes & so on. Yes, I have all your scores on my HD  :devil

Like I said I will play anyway. What did you do all by yourself for an  hour lol??

I grabbed me two or three bases and ended up #1 for the second time in my AH career only because of this. It's a shame.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 18, 2023, 05:10:21 PM
Plane stats for the names (& thus number) of pilots, score page for their data like hours played in different modes & so on. Yes, I have all your scores on my HD  :devil

I grabbed me two or three bases and ended up #1 for the second time in my AH career only because of this. It's a shame.

When was my last flight?

 :cheers: #1
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Lusche on March 18, 2023, 05:24:24 PM
When was my last flight?

I can't say. First, because I don't know your exact in game handle, second because that kind of detailed data is available to HTC only. I only can see the same data everybody can see.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 18, 2023, 05:50:17 PM
I can't say. First, because I don't know your exact in game handle, second because that kind of detailed data is available to HTC only. I only can see the same data everybody can see.

Was Ratpak1… you’ve done plenty already.  I will have to hunt the tour stats to see when I fell off.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Animl-AW on March 18, 2023, 08:01:24 PM
I wonder if there is any correlation in the numbers equation with when marketing (commercials) started and slowed, or ended. I personally don't see commercials anymore. I would guess, exposure depends on what kind of channels you watch. But I would think it would be a factor. If a channel they advertised on was losing viewers that would have an effect too. Little to no marketing, no retaining new customers to counter balance those who leave for their reasons. Ya go bald when you lose more hair then new growth.

Other factors would include economy peaks and valleys. Take note: The "Great Recession" of 2008, refer to Lusche's number charts (a great informative response). I would think, things like computer or gear goes bad and no money to replace it is a factor. Which was one of my reasons I left. Time and new gaming pc is why I returned, because of better economy. I never left because the game was bad. Obviously, now common on the boards, many are returning for the same reasons. They probably left around the same time too, another common theme. Despite inflation (inflation exist because people have the money to spend too much) the economy is good, people buying new and much better gear, this is prime time to be advertising, even just a little.

One point being, the game is better off now then during the peak. Marketing could have increased to get the word out to new players.

There are a lot of variables in why numbers are what they are in all businesses. From all the readings in the forum I did, going back to when I left in 09, there were some common themes and dates. When looking at his charts, my GUESS would be that a couple small unfortunate things happened, almost at at once, that had an impact. Which have nothing to do with the quality of the game.

2 cents

Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Lusche on March 18, 2023, 08:18:37 PM
TV Ads and marketing in general has to recoup it costs. In the end, that didn't work anymore. It doesn't help to spend $$ on advertising when the potential players don't sign up after their trial. HT has tried all kinds of stuff, around 2010 there even was a boxed version of AH in the stores over here. The numbers still went down.
The big eye-opener to me was the steam launch. We had thousands of interested players downloading AH. not just "gamers" as some old folks here love to call them in some weird disgust, but a lot of ppl genuinely interested in the topic and coming from other sims. Almost nobody signed up.
What good is marketing for a product that apparently fails on the market?

Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Bopgun on March 18, 2023, 09:11:54 PM
TV Ads and marketing in general has to recoup it costs. In the end, that didn't work anymore. It doesn't help to spend $$ on advertising when the potential players don't sign up after their trial. HT has tried all kinds of stuff, around 2010 there even was a boxed version of AH in the stores over here. The numbers still went down.
The big eye-opener to me was the steam launch. We had thousands of interested players downloading AH. not just "gamers" as some old folks here love to call them in some weird disgust, but a lot of ppl genuinely interested in the topic and coming from other sims. Almost nobody signed up.
What good is marketing for a product that apparently fails on the market?

You think any kind of F2P access to the MA would help or hurt overall subscriber numbers?
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Lusche on March 18, 2023, 09:21:05 PM
You think any kind of F2P access to the MA would help or hurt overall subscriber numbers?

I seriously doubt it would help, but that's more a gut feeling than based on a careful analysis.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 18, 2023, 09:45:33 PM
TV Ads and marketing in general has to recoup it costs. In the end, that didn't work anymore. It doesn't help to spend $$ on advertising when the potential players don't sign up after their trial. HT has tried all kinds of stuff, around 2010 there even was a boxed version of AH in the stores over here. The numbers still went down.
The big eye-opener to me was the steam launch. We had thousands of interested players downloading AH. not just "gamers" as some old folks here love to call them in some weird disgust, but a lot of ppl genuinely interested in the topic and coming from other sims. Almost nobody signed up.
What good is marketing for a product that apparently fails on the market?

I remember the commercials!

As a father of a “super gamer” 16 year old I have refunded more steam games than I care to mention. Steam lets you refund a purchase after certain times if you don’t like something. What do you want to bet a much a bunch of younger players downloaded it and found out the learning curve was steep and then said hey dad I need to refund this? Lol. Wonder if Dale took a capital hit for that?

Bu the way, my son doesn’t know it but he’s getting a cool new rig for his bday so I can steal his alienware, soup it up and go vr!  :rock
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Lusche on March 18, 2023, 10:08:23 PM
What do you want to bet a much a bunch of younger players downloaded it and found out the learning curve was steep and then said hey dad I need to refund this? Lol. Wonder if Dale took a capital hit for that?


The players left during the trial period, no refund necessary. Also, it's a subscription service, not a game purchase.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 18, 2023, 10:15:16 PM

The players left during the trial period, no refund necessary. Also, it's a subscription service, not a game purchase.

Right same premise. Steam lets you refund base on time during a certain period. I don’t know the exact math.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Lusche on March 18, 2023, 10:30:40 PM
Right same premise. Steam lets you refund base on time during a certain period. I don’t know the exact math.

Max two hours of gaming time and only up to 14 days after purchase. For subscriptions, it's 48 hours, but only if you didn't use it.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 18, 2023, 10:36:12 PM
I envision a 12 year old absolutely flummoxed and running upstairs to mom!  :joystick:  :furious
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Lusche on March 18, 2023, 10:38:23 PM
I envision a 12 year old absolutely flummoxed and running upstairs to mom!  :joystick:  :furious

 :rolleyes:
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Shane on March 19, 2023, 01:24:29 AM
Have you ever did one for the CT/AvA? I spent quite a bit of time there learning the various planes in their historical matchups which let me use them better in the MA as well.   :joystick: :airplane:


Now it's basically... Thursday Tank Night...  :noid


This graph shows the number of pilots with at least one kill or death per tour in the (LW) main arena:

Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Lusche on March 19, 2023, 03:08:46 AM
Have you ever did one for the CT/AvA?


The data for that arena is very unreliable - scoring and stats tracking were often disabled for extended periods, so I did gather data only occasionally, depending on availability.

But quick and dirty I can give one example, how the recorded playing time was distributed between the arenas in January 2012:
LW Arena 111,000 hours 4303 pilots
MW Arena 4,500 hours 522 pilots
EW Arena 500 hours 156 pilots
WW1 Arena 892 hours 450 pilots
AvA Arena 585 hours 196 pilots


As time went on, those minor arenas lost players (and spent hours) even more quickly than the (LW) main arenas.

 

Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Vraciu on March 19, 2023, 04:59:01 AM


- If you look closely at the end of 2022, you'll see the decline has reversed, and there has been a small, month-over-month growth in numbers.   :banana:   I feel good about that because I felt like I have been noticing more players in the arena during US prime time.

It's way too early to know if that's a long-term trend or just another short-lived spike (like several that preceded it).

Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 19, 2023, 08:23:28 AM

The data for that arena is very unreliable - scoring and stats tracking were often disabled for extended periods, so I did gather data only occasionally, depending on availability.

But quick and dirty I can give one example, how the recorded playing time was distributed between the arenas in January 2012:
LW Arena 111,000 hours 4303 pilots
MW Arena 4,500 hours 522 pilots
EW Arena 500 hours 156 pilots
WW1 Arena 892 hours 450 pilots
AvA Arena 585 hours 196 pilots


As time went on, those minor arenas lost players (and spent hours) even more quickly than the (LW) main arenas.


I miss Mid War!  :(
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: oboe on March 19, 2023, 09:42:07 AM
It's way too early to know if that's a long-term trend or just another short-lived spike (like several that preceded it).

Agreed.  Looking for hope in what appears to be a pretty bleak set of data for Aces High.   It is missing data from the first 3 months of 2023 though, and it would be interesting to know if we pushed up past that first threshold of 1,000 players.   

It would also be interesting to include data points from the wider world - for example, what effect did recessions really have?  I see a dip in numbers in the 2nd half of 2008, but overall the player base seems resistant to economic cycles?   Would also be interesting to see the introduction dates of War Thunder, IL-2 Great Battles multiplayer, and DCS WWII, and the ending dates of Air Warrior and Microsoft's Fighter Ace, and how those developments impacted AH's player count.   I think I can see a small "COVID bump" in early 2020.

Interesting to see the slope of the decline in players is consistent; player numbers declined at nearly the same rate after the Steam peak as they did after the game's 2008 high point.   But that slope has more or less flattened since 2019.   

Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Animl-AW on March 19, 2023, 10:00:16 AM
TV Ads and marketing in general has to recoup it costs. In the end, that didn't work anymore. It doesn't help to spend $$ on advertising when the potential players don't sign up after their trial. HT has tried all kinds of stuff, around 2010 there even was a boxed version of AH in the stores over here. The numbers still went down.
The big eye-opener to me was the steam launch. We had thousands of interested players downloading AH. not just "gamers" as some old folks here love to call them in some weird disgust, but a lot of ppl genuinely interested in the topic and coming from other sims. Almost nobody signed up.
What good is marketing for a product that apparently fails on the market?

Always informative replies from you. I'm jumping into speculations mid-stream, after being gone for so long. But I was here at the beginning, the peak, and present. The reason I went back in time on the forum was to inform myself with what I missed in the grape vine.

But I still look at the 2008 recession as a factor in the equation. That could also be a factor in why the ads didn't work well.
If it fails in the market I would assume it would not exist, but I get the failing ad concept.

JUST MY POV. On the gamer thing, I don't think sim/games like DCS draw as much mixed crowds like the AH MA does. It can be played sim or game. it is assumed by "old timers" that a gamer is after points and how to game the game,.. in destructive ways, like the HO epidemic or kamikaze style piloting, exploiting bugs, constant talk of other things we can't mention.

Simmers who like scenarios practice in the MA, which is what most gamers like. They are somewhat conflicting concepts. My average is, 6 out of 10 flights is being HOed. Ya, that disgust me. Why waste 10-20 min of time getting up to alt and to a fight just to not even get a shot off and being HOed. The most often reason I log off is because of that, not that it's too late, ... it's too much. That alone could be a reason for losing people. It's about to lose me. Aw never had this kind of HO epidemic. The wya I see it, the players/gamers are ruining it themselves. Simmers just don't commonly do that stuff. So ya, they come thinking it's more of a sim and find out it's being gamed to death. And the very people doing it are saying "Where'd everyone go?". It's like a drunk in a bar who makes everyone move away from him because of his antics. I don't mean to sound harsh, almost all good peeps, but sometimes a bathroom mirror should be held up.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Nefarious on March 19, 2023, 10:42:13 AM
FSO Numbers - I only have a few logs from before 2009. If I recall correctly, there was some kind of server switch or move, something which caused us to lose arena logs. In the few records I have before Jan 2009, it seems that at some point in late 2008 we reached the peak numbers of FSO of near 600 pilots.
 
(https://i.postimg.cc/90msR71v/overallfso.jpg)
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: oboe on March 19, 2023, 11:37:03 AM
To Animal's point about marketing ads - here is a quote from Hitech I've saved from the time recently after AH's release on Steam:

Quote
Quote from: hitech on November 29, 2017, 10:21:00 AM
Don't mean to jump on ya but on this rare occasion I want to point out how mistaken almost all people on this board are about the dynamics of AH.

In the last 100 days aprox 40,000 people have installed Aces High, 20,000 new people have created accounts and entered an arena. Of the people entering the arena 65% are gone and do never reenter by the 10 minute mark of being in the arena. 75% are gone after 30 Minutes. HiTech

I think if you compare the cost of ads versus their effectiveness of getting people to download and try the game - even a stellar ad with an excellent response would absolutely pale in comparison to the numbers of new accounts facilitated by AH's release on Steam.   And I don't think Steam has an upfront cost like marketing would have - rather, I think Steam just takes a cut of the subscriber fee?  Not positive about that.   But anyway, Steam must be several orders of magnitude more efficient at exposing people to the game and getting them to D/L and try it out.   And you can see the dramatic Steam bump in the chart - but the player numbers just don't last. 

Here's Lusche's player numbers chart, with some events added in for context:
(https://i.imgur.com/6tAmXbc.jpg)
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 19, 2023, 12:38:55 PM
FSO Numbers - I only have a few logs from before 2009. If I recall correctly, there was some kind of server switch or move, something which caused us to lose arena logs. In the few records I have before Jan 2009, it seems that at some point in late 2008 we reached the peak numbers of FSO of near 600 pilots.
 
(https://i.postimg.cc/90msR71v/overallfso.jpg)

Thank you for validating my memory!!
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Animl-AW on March 19, 2023, 01:24:12 PM
To Animal's point about marketing ads - here is a quote from Hitech I've saved from the time recently after AH's release on Steam:

I think if you compare the cost of ads versus their effectiveness of getting people to download and try the game - even a stellar ad with an excellent response would absolutely pale in comparison to the numbers of new accounts facilitated by AH's release on Steam.   And I don't think Steam has an upfront cost like marketing would have - rather, I think Steam just takes a cut of the subscriber fee?  Not positive about that.   But anyway, Steam must be several orders of magnitude more efficient at exposing people to the game and getting them to D/L and try it out.   And you can see the dramatic Steam bump in the chart - but the player numbers just don't last.

Well, I never thought it is THE issue, I simply stated it could be a factor in the equation, most of which is educated speculations, I suggested several possible indicators.  While expensive advertising may not yield the desired result, or pay for itself, that's the whole risk. There are types of marketing that are fairly costless.

Many games join Steam for direct exposure and/or connection to gamers verses advertising on the History Channel where only a percentage is into gaming. It really all comes down to how one squints their eyes just right to have the golden answer. I think these charts tell several stories.

I don't think any of it is because the game is bad, its not. I just don't think flight sims and combat sim games are the biggest draw in the gaming industry. It's a niche. Everyone I know that does some gaming, don't fly flight-sims. This is a different caliber of gaming. It's a lot of work to get up to standard pace in kills. When I came back it took a few weeks to get up to any pace and I'm still not close to what I used to be yet. We may be bored with anything else.

It's a shame AH3 didn't come during the peak, it is better.

I'm not committing to anyone one reason individually.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Animl-AW on March 19, 2023, 01:27:39 PM
To Animal's point about marketing ads - here is a quote from Hitech I've saved from the time recently after AH's release on Steam:

I think if you compare the cost of ads versus their effectiveness of getting people to download and try the game - even a stellar ad with an excellent response would absolutely pale in comparison to the numbers of new accounts facilitated by AH's release on Steam.   And I don't think Steam has an upfront cost like marketing would have - rather, I think Steam just takes a cut of the subscriber fee?  Not positive about that.   But anyway, Steam must be several orders of magnitude more efficient at exposing people to the game and getting them to D/L and try it out.   And you can see the dramatic Steam bump in the chart - but the player numbers just don't last. 

Here's Lusche's player numbers chart, with some events added in for context:
(https://i.imgur.com/6tAmXbc.jpg)

BTW, I like what ya did with that chart.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: CptTrips on March 19, 2023, 01:49:28 PM
Here's Lusche's player numbers chart, with some events added in for context:

Missed an important one:

October 28th, 2008. 
HTC announced the abandonment of Tour of Duty.

Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: oboe on March 19, 2023, 02:18:53 PM
BTW, I like what ya did with that chart.

Thank you, Animal.  Agreed, more than one reason is in play here.   Many people suggest lack of marketing is to blame, but its hard to imagine any advertising campaign that could match (or even come anywhere close to) Steam's results: 40,000 D/Ls in 100 days, with 20,000 new accounts created and entering the arena.  At that point, the player is HTC's to lose, but some combination of factors prevented them from sticking around.

@CptTrips - doh!   I should add that (could that factor be the 'notch' in the 2008 player peak?), as well as the release dates of Aces High II and III.    Also, when did AH drop its subscription price to a flat $14.95/mo from $29.95/mo?

I still don't know what caused the high spike in player count in early 2003.   But that matched the highest peak reached in 2008.  AH II was released in Q3 2003 (or was it early 2004?), so the early peak came before that.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Lusche on March 19, 2023, 02:47:02 PM

I still don't know what caused the high spike in player count in early 2003.   But that matched the highest peak reached in 2008.  AH II was released in Q3 2003 (or was it early 2004?), so the early peak came before that.


AHII was released June 2004, in tour 53
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: oboe on March 19, 2023, 03:21:25 PM
New version, with AH-specific events included.

(https://i.imgur.com/DUHi5qZ.jpg)

Ironic, but it looks like a new release actually drives player numbers DOWN for a bit.  I suppose its due to increased hardware requirements?  I also can't help wondering about the release dates of certain popular aircraft, and how that may have impacted player numbers.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 19, 2023, 03:47:39 PM
What was tour of duty?
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: oboe on March 19, 2023, 03:50:48 PM
"Tour of Duty" was basically going to be Aces High with a career mode.

https://www.simhq.com/_air/air_059a.html (https://www.simhq.com/_air/air_059a.html)
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Nefarious on March 19, 2023, 04:23:54 PM
Ironic, but it looks like a new release actually drives player numbers DOWN for a bit.  I suppose its due to increased hardware requirements?  I also can't help wondering about the release dates of certain popular aircraft, and how that may have impacted player numbers.

I distinctly remember the system requirement quit posts from both AH2 and AH3. Both times a lot of "Welp, guess I'll quit posts" we're seen.

Missed an important one:

October 28th, 2008. 
HTC announced the abandonment of Tour of Duty.

Not sure how important it was, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little bit disappointed - but I'm still here :)

Friday Squad Ops used to be called Tour of Duty - and we even changed the name to Friday Squad Operations when Tour of Duty was announced or sometime thereafter.

Most of those game play settings became available for the players like you to tinker with and it allowed me to have some fun times in the SEA. I Need to start running those again soon.

I think there are lot of factors in the decline of numbers. Game Age, Game Development, Player Age, Subscription Costs, Game Competition (WT, IL2BOX, DCS)... No point in rehashing it.

I think the biggest thing that could help is social media sharing gameplay video. Some tweaks to camera views and in flight recording would go along way into making good gameplay videos.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 19, 2023, 06:18:11 PM
"Tour of Duty" was basically going to be Aces High with a career mode.

https://www.simhq.com/_air/air_059a.html (https://www.simhq.com/_air/air_059a.html)

Ahhh yes now I remember. I came in around 07-08. What was the reason it was scrapped. Would have been a great way to learn the game. Seems like the missions that are in place now are kinda of that.

Great discussion everyone!
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Vraciu on March 19, 2023, 06:30:08 PM
When did AH2 end?
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 19, 2023, 06:37:57 PM
New version, with AH-specific events included.

(https://i.imgur.com/DUHi5qZ.jpg)

Ironic, but it looks like a new release actually drives player numbers DOWN for a bit.  I suppose its due to increased hardware requirements?  I also can't help wondering about the release dates of certain popular aircraft, and how that may have impacted player numbers.

Nice additions to the chart! Is there any player breakdown by country?
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Lusche on March 19, 2023, 06:40:05 PM
Ahhh yes now I remember. I came in around 07-08. What was the reason it was scrapped.



Quote from: Pyro
We had our convention this past weekend which gave us the chance to speak with players in person and talk about the future of AH.  We’ve been thinking about how we were going to move forward and came to some conclusions that we decided to announce at the convention.

The main news is that we have decided to put Combat Tour on an indefinite hold.  The reason for this is that we have decided that it is better to steer our development in a way that allows us to implement our CT developments first as part of the regular game.

The way we’ve been going has been like trying to fight a two front war with only one army.  It’s stretched us too thin and has hurt our overall level of productivity.  It also has handcuffed us in a lot of our development decisions by forcing us to indefinitely postpone a lot of other things.

Our biggest obstacle with CT is in breathing life into it to make it fun and immersive.     While a basic structure is there, there’s a ton of detail work to be done to reach that end goal.  Without it, it just has too much of a cardboard cutout feel that’s not going to engage players and hold their attention for long.

What this all means for now is that we are going to focus on core game development.  We’re going to pull the CT AI mission system and redevelop it for use by CM’s in scenarios and special events.  We’re working on new terrain upgrades in both the technology and the art used.  We want to implement a character animation system.  We want to bring back the old 8 player H2H but expand it both in the number of players and with additional gameplay capabilities.  There’s a lot of systems in the game engine that are dated and in need of overhaul.

In hindsight, this is how we should have approached it from the start.  This will keep us heading in the right direction while getting improvements out to our current players and speeding up our development.  It’s really a chance to reboot our process to get back to our old development cycle that saw things moving at a faster pace.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Nefarious on March 19, 2023, 06:58:54 PM
Quote
What this all means for now is that we are going to focus on core game development.  We’re going to pull the CT AI mission system and redevelop it for use by CM’s in scenarios and special events

someone should tell the rest of the CMs...  :rofl

Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 19, 2023, 07:49:41 PM
Thanks Lusche once again!
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: oboe on March 19, 2023, 08:49:27 PM
When did AH2 end?

The research I did suggested Aces High III was released in Sep 2016, with a Steam release in Aug 2017.  IIRC there was a few months of Beta while both AH II and III were playable, but once III was release, II was no longer supported or offered for download...
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 19, 2023, 09:34:50 PM
The research I did suggested Aces High III was released in Sep 2016, with a Steam release in Aug 2017.  IIRC there was a few months of Beta while both AH II and III were playable, but once III was release, II was no longer supported or offered for download...

So was AH 3 when the updated base layouts and strats were introduced. Bummed I missed this launch. What were the big new features?
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Animl-AW on March 19, 2023, 10:11:22 PM
I'm reading the chart like this;...
11/2001 is when the AWIII crowd migrated over to AHI, AH got a big boost from that.... and the game held a steady 4000 all the way through 3/2011, 10 years.

The rest is peaks and valleys. As I read it 4000 was the core high number, follow that over and War Thunder and IL-2 releases, which are a different breed. Quite a few games have come and gone since AH started. steady 1000 from beginning to present.

The drop of big numbers started during the great recession of 08. There was already a distinct downward pattern before AHIII and Steam was released. AHIII certainly stopped the hard spiral, and leveled out. Unfortunately IMO it was after most left, they didn't get to see it.

From what I read on IL-2 boards, it's not doing all that well, according to posts in their forums "great graphics, but this and that..". On steam they are offering 30%-85% discounts during winter.

AW-AHIII is a very strong dedicated base for 35+ years. Not sure I know any other game that can say that. We also have players that have aged playing AW through AHIII. Many core players are passing away.

It's not the game,... IMO it's the niche genre.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 19, 2023, 10:40:32 PM
I was in the moving and storage industry in 2008 and was laid off late that year. I also had a 3 year old and and a pregnant wife. I started before the crash so it was 2007 when I first started and then the rest is…

(https://i.imgur.com/gtWVncO.gif)
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: RichardDarkwood on March 20, 2023, 04:52:18 AM


  Also, when did AH drop its subscription price to a flat $14.95/mo from $29.95/mo?

I still don't know what caused the high spike in player count in early 2003.   But that matched the highest peak reached in 2008.  AH II was released in Q3 2003 (or was it early 2004?), so the early peak came before that.


It was always $14.95


The commercials on the history channel and the military channel are what boosted the numbers.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Lusche on March 20, 2023, 05:24:26 AM

It was always $14.95

Up to tour 19 it was 29.95. Price went down to 14.95 on August 15th 2001



The commercials on the history channel and the military channel are what boosted the numbers.

Well, until they didn't anymore ;)


Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Nefarious on March 20, 2023, 07:01:09 AM
It was always $14.95

lol

we know a thing or two because we've seen a thing or two.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: oboe on March 20, 2023, 08:30:44 AM

It was always $14.95


The commercials on the history channel and the military channel are what boosted the numbers.

I remember paying $29.95/mo back in the day, which was less than 1/2 of my typical monthly bill from WarBirds (@ $2.00/hr in the arena).   I wish I could add the commercial runs to the chart - would be interesting to see plotted against player numbers. 

If they were really responsible for boosting numbers, wonder why HTC would stop running the ads?  Unless they were so expensive the profit from the additional players didn't cover the cost of advertising, over the life of the average new player subscription?

The other thing I wish I could plot is the intro date of the significant added aircraft.  I wonder if many people held off subscribing until HTC released their favorite ride?  IIRC the P-51, 109, Zero and C-47 were here from nearly the start, but not sure what tours the other aircraft were added.   

I think I remember another player who said he negotiated with Hitech about moving his entire squad over from their then-current sim.  I'm guessing it was a multi-game mega-squad, like "The Damned", but not sure.  But that move added alot of people all at once...
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 20, 2023, 08:38:47 AM
The commercials on the history channel and the military channel are what boosted the numbers.

It was the commercial that brought me in my first time. I can still hear the announcers voice. So of course I looked it up and now  it’s going to be stuck in my head all day. Good luck getting any work done today.

https://youtu.be/B4SVS3QOQzY (https://youtu.be/B4SVS3QOQzY)
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: oboe on March 20, 2023, 09:50:32 AM
Thanks Dad - I searched YouTube for Aces High commercials and found three - with upload dates of Nov 2006, Oct 2007, and Jan 2008.   Not sure how well these dates correlate with air dates on the Military and History channels, but I've thrown them on the chart:

(https://i.imgur.com/TgOWANq.jpg)   

Without knowing the times and frequencies of the runs, I suppose its difficult to draw conclusions.  But it at least appears they added to player growth.   It also occurs to me that while Steam garners LOTS of D/Ls and account creations, its not reaching the "right" kind of people to become long-lasting players.  Maybe the History and Military channel ads were better at exposing AH to people who had more of an interest in history, and that aspect hooked them on AH, while most of the Steam people were interested in pure gaming, and AH falls short in appealing to that crowd?
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Nefarious on March 20, 2023, 09:56:39 AM
Thanks Dad - I searched YouTube for Aces High commercials and found three - with upload dates of Nov 2006, Oct 2007, and Jan 2008.   Not sure how well these dates correlate with air dates on the Military and History channels, but I've thrown them on the chart:

(https://i.imgur.com/TgOWANq.jpg)   

Without knowing the times and frequencies of the runs, I suppose its difficult to draw conclusions.  But it at least appears they added to player growth...

I recall the commercials being earlier than that. I searched the forums and the #1 post was from Feb 2004. When I saw them it was about 2004-2005.

https://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/index.php/topic,108500.msg1120459.html#msg1120459
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: oboe on March 20, 2023, 10:01:17 AM
I recall the commercials being earlier than that. I searched the forums and the #1 post was from Feb 2004. When I saw them it was about 2004-2005.

https://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/index.php/topic,108500.msg1120459.html#msg1120459

Thanks Nef - no doubt the runs had to preceed uploads to YouTube.  Wish we could get hard dates for them, but we can probably safely assume they contributed to the upward trajectory of player numbers, from 2004 - 2008, and they were spaced approximately a year apart?  That could be a reach, but seems like a reasonable assumption to me...
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Nefarious on March 20, 2023, 10:11:18 AM
Thanks Nef - no doubt the runs had to preceed uploads to YouTube.  Wish we could get hard dates for them, but we can probably safely assume they contributed to the upward trajectory of player numbers, from 2004 - 2008, and they were spaced approximately a year apart?  That could be a reach, but seems like a reasonable assumption to me...

I think it's fair to say that the commercials were part of an upward trend in player numbers in that time frame, yes.

AH2 had numbers and the game play to keep it #1. No other game had it. The other games maybe had the graphics and small multiplayer arenas and some still have that (IL2:BOX) but nothing could compete with the player numbers that AH2 had.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 20, 2023, 10:33:02 AM
Don’t forget that computer gaming and flight sims were nothing like they were in 2008ish from when AH started and ditto that exponentially for today. The increasingly number of other options has to be accounted for. The chart is awesome but it can’t account for all of that. It at least is not itemizing the options, the chart overall shows that diversity in my view.

For me, AH is all I play. I have so little time as is that I can’t imagine investing it into learning something new. The steeeeeeep learning curve of AH is probably my favorite thing. Learn new things daily. There’s planes and tanks I have never even been in yet. I couldn’t imagine trying to start all that knowledge into a new game.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: CptTrips on March 20, 2023, 10:49:13 AM
I remember paying $29.95/mo back in the day, which was less than 1/2 of my typical monthly bill from WarBirds (@ $2.00/hr in the arena).   


Yep.  I started at $29.95 after the beta.  And yes, at the time I thought that was a great bargain.

 
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: oboe on March 20, 2023, 10:59:18 AM
Don’t forget that computer gaming and flight sims were nothing like they were in 2008ish from when AH started and ditto that exponentially for today. The increasingly number of other options has to be accounted for. The chart is awesome but it can’t account for all of that. It at least is not itemizing the options, the chart overall shows that diversity in my view.

For me, AH is all I play. I have so little time as is that I can’t imagine investing it into learning something new. The steeeeeeep learning curve of AH is probably my favorite thing. Learn new things daily. There’s planes and tanks I have never even been in yet. I couldn’t imagine trying to start all that knowledge into a new game.

Dad, if you're discovering things every day - here's something for you, which I don't know if you'll recall from before:  Do you know what happens if you go to the hangar, select the C-47 with the Paratroop loadout, and then just observe the troops for the next 30 seconds or so?    I think its from the character animations Pyro talked about working on for Tour of Duty.   Just sortof spilled over into a moment of silliness...
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 20, 2023, 12:21:01 PM
Lol nope but will try it out!

Do I press Alt-F4 first?  :lol I actually fell for that my first time in not gonna lie.  :lipsrsealed:
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: oboe on March 20, 2023, 12:53:36 PM
No, its not a mean trick.  You will laugh at what you see, or at least smile...
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Dadtallica on March 20, 2023, 02:53:45 PM
No, its not a mean trick.  You will laugh at what you see, or at least smile...

Will do! I just noticed the dancing troops in the hanger not long ago.

Once again I appreciate everyone’s contribution to this discussion, it was excellent!
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: oboe on March 20, 2023, 02:59:43 PM
Will do! I just noticed the dancing troops in the hanger not long ago.

Once again I appreciate everyone’s contribution to this discussion, it was excellent!

Yep, the dancing troops - that's what I was referring to.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Shuffler on March 21, 2023, 11:24:56 AM
He must have missed the sights downtown. The Hooters with the girls that have .... well... you know. Then there is IHop where all the one legged girls work.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: ariansworld on March 22, 2023, 08:37:54 PM
You probably forgot to put when the ARENA SPLIT happened in the chart.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: Lusche on March 22, 2023, 09:17:37 PM
You probably forgot to put when the ARENA SPLIT happened in the chart.

In case anyone is wondering, that was in September 2006.
Title: Re: Help Me Understand the Numbers?
Post by: DmonSlyr on March 23, 2023, 08:01:46 AM
You probably forgot to put when the ARENA SPLIT happened in the chart.

 Too me, that did have an impact at the time and slowly killed the squads because they couldn't fly together. And while the #s on the chart seemed high and growing it didn't appear that way because 2 arenas split the #s and one was full at 350 while the other had lower #s. I never fully truly understood the reason for the split.