Author Topic: Puzzle time!  (Read 772 times)

Offline Tank-Ace

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Re: Puzzle time!
« Reply #30 on: January 15, 2012, 10:43:05 PM »
Its implyed that you are to pick an answer out of the 4 listed options. Theres a saying, the clever answers are often the simplest..... they're also usually wrong. Point is that if you try to read into things too much, and find some clever, trickety trick to solve the problem, its usually going to blow up in your face, becuase the problem is strait forward.



Like I said, there is no answer to that question. And by no answer, I don't mean theres 0% probability that you will pick the right answer, I mean that you can't answer the question because the data you are given is constantly changing.
You started this thread and it was obviously about your want and desire in spite of your use of 'we' and Google.

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Offline clerick

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Re: Puzzle time!
« Reply #31 on: January 16, 2012, 06:03:09 AM »
Ok, so here's the deal with this question. It states "If you choose an answer to this question at random..." It must be stated that there really is no question to answer so, we are forced to make some assumptions and, depending on what you assume, your answers will be different.

If you assume that the answers given are irrelevant, a red herring as it were, then you cannot answer the question since we do not know what the correct answer is and the odds of getting the correct answer are different depending on which you choose.
For Example, replace the percentages with some other thing:
    A) Cat
    B) Dog
    C) Bird
    D) Cat
Obviously your chance of guessing cat is double the chance of guessing the others, but since we don't know, from the question, what the correct answer is, we cannot calculate the odds.

If you assume that the choices given are meant to be your options then you have a 0% chance of getting the correct answer since none exists. You have a 50% chance of guessing "25%" which automatically makes it an invalid answer and, of course, the other answers are wrong because 50% and 60% do not equal the odds either. I would argue that this is the approach that requires the least assuming and/or reading into the problem.

If you assume that the question is asking something like "Given a set of four solutions, only one being correct. What are the odds you will guess the correct solution at random? Select from the options below." In this case the correct answer is 25% and you have A or D to choose from. This is what many here are doing. They are answering the question independent of the answers provided, then applying the answers after the fact.
     "Oh! one out of four is 25%! But I have two 25% answers, therefore the answer is 50%!" (Most first graders will tell you that 25% does not equal 50%.)

You could get all philosophical and assume that since there really is no definite question, as if the question were as vague as "what am I thinking of?" Your odds here would be one in infinity of guessing the answer correctly or 1/infinity. **WARNING MATH** The limit of x (your possible solutions) approaches infinity your odds become zero. In other words, one divided by a REALLY big number become, the same as makes no difference, zero.

I'm going to guess that the purpose of this question is to start all kids of discussions like this. It really is a good critical thinking exercise. I agree with Tank-Ace, there really is not enough information to definitely prove one way or the other what the answer is, we need more. BUT, the path with the fewest assumptions will give us an answer of 0%.

Offline clerick

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Re: Puzzle time!
« Reply #32 on: January 16, 2012, 06:07:32 AM »


It doesn't say which answer is correct, it just asks what are chances that you choose a correct answer... again 25% is the correct number...there are two choices for this answer and 2 wrong ones.... 50%

Think about this for a moment. Since, as you admit, the correct answer is not given, how do you come to the conclusion that 25% is the correct answer?

If "25%" happens to be the correct answer, then you have a 50% chance of getting it right.

However, you only have a 25% chance of getting "50%" or "60%." So the odds of guessing the correct answer change depending on which answer is actually correct.

Offline clerick

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Re: Puzzle time!
« Reply #33 on: January 16, 2012, 06:10:12 AM »
There are 4 choices. Since two of those choices (25%) are the same, you remove one of them. So now, the choices look like this.

A) 25%
B) 50%
C) 60%

Now there are only three possible answers, and out of three, one of them is right, hence, 33.3% chance of getting a right answer. The problem is. The answer is not there So this question cannot be answered given the choices.



This isn't how probability works. If you have four items you you don't get to throw one item out of the calculations just because it is the same as another.

Offline clerick

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Re: Puzzle time!
« Reply #34 on: January 16, 2012, 06:12:21 AM »
...all it asks is what is the chances of choosing 25%...


.... 50%

Read it again, it says no such thing.

Offline helbent

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Re: Puzzle time!
« Reply #35 on: January 16, 2012, 08:56:12 AM »
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Offline FLOTSOM

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Re: Puzzle time!
« Reply #36 on: January 16, 2012, 10:31:07 AM »
(Image removed from quote.)

 :huh :D


wow for being so smart some of you guys are really silly!!!!!!

read the actual question being asked.......it doesnt ask you anything but to take a guess....at nothing.....so realistically you cant possibly be wrong with any of the potential answers. no question means no correct answer maens no wrong answers, so any answer is correct so your chances of guessing correctly is 100%
FLOTSOM

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Offline FireDrgn

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Re: Puzzle time!
« Reply #37 on: January 16, 2012, 01:36:19 PM »
However, by answering 50% one invalidates 25% as a correct answer, thus bringing the probability down to 25%.  This cycle creates a paradox.

-Penguin

Its not a paradox . Its is known to be false,.   Its called a complex question, using ambiguity to do its work.     You can not do false things  you can only represent them with launguage  and math. So the answer is 0%

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Offline Mar

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Re: Puzzle time!
« Reply #38 on: January 16, 2012, 01:44:32 PM »
Just erase 60% from the board and put 33.333-% in its place, there's your answer.
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Offline FireDrgn

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Re: Puzzle time!
« Reply #39 on: January 16, 2012, 02:00:20 PM »
Read it again, it says no such thing.

Its ambiguous.   Its asking it in a false way.       These type of questions almost always use a logical fallacy . This one certianly does.
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Offline Dragon

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Re: Puzzle time!
« Reply #40 on: January 16, 2012, 02:12:46 PM »
 :headscratch:


If you chose not to reply, have you still made a choice?
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Offline Tank-Ace

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Re: Puzzle time!
« Reply #41 on: January 16, 2012, 02:34:05 PM »
A paradox is a logical statment or group of statments that leads to a contradiction or a situation which, if true, defies logic or reason.

The question itself isn't a paradox, but any attempt to follow the question through to its end will result in a paradox. Arguably it is also a circular reference.


But the point is that the question doesn't have any answer, because depending on how you look at it, your data is either incomplete or constantly changing. Because we don't have any hard, unchanging data, we can't answer the question.

X = Yx when Y= .4 Z.
4Z = X+Y, find X and Y

This roughly illustrates what dealing with, even if the situation and numbers aren't the same. We're looking for X and Y, whos value canges based on variable Z. Since Z is unknown (we could say that its constantly changing value) we can't find an answer for X and Y because the value of X and Y is dependent on the value of Z. We need Z to solve for X and Y, but we need X and Y to solve for Z.
You started this thread and it was obviously about your want and desire in spite of your use of 'we' and Google.

"Once more unto the breach"