Just got back from India last night from a business trip. Some background before my observations. I'm in Global Supply Chain. I've done this type of work since '95, with most of the Supply Chain work done in HK, China, Thailand, Tawain...etc. I have done business in Sri Lanka and Pakistan as well. And I do Supply Chain work in Europe, the UK, and our friendly neighbors, Canada and Mexico.
Money is running to India right now, no question about it. The biggest hurdle for India to equal or pass China is twofold. One is that it is a democracy, and the second is related to that democracy and is the creation of the infrastructures necessary to sustain and facilitate the growth.
When I first started traveling to China, I used to enter there from HK to Shenzen. Back in '95, I think Shenzen had maybe 1.5 to 2 million...maybe not even that. Now it has to be well over 10 million and growing. The biggest reason that growth was able to happen was China's governmental ability to just declare and make infrastructure development happen. Now the Chinese planned well for the HK handover in '99 and improved their port in Yintian because they knew folks (like us) hated having to move our containers out through HK.
India's roads, while improving tremendously in the last 5 years, have a long way to go to. In fact, until just 3 years ago, much of the city and state road building was done by manual labor and without alot of heavy equipment. That seems to be changing rapidly. And electrical power is rationed on a daily basis, or is at least where I conducted business which was in Pune. Having said that, I see India has plans to add power plants all over the country.
Anyway, from my perspective, which is a manufacturing one (not a software or call center one), that's the challenge for India to manage and overcome.
On the plus side is the ease of communication. In China, once you wander just slightly away from a major population area where there are alot of ex-pats, then english is not spoken very much. In India, english is spoken at every level and just about every place due to the requirement that all school children must learn their native dialect, Hindi, and English in grammar school. To me, that is a huge business advantage for India.
And India's stock market is going crazy right now.
For the Brits, I was in Goa for the India v. England cricket match last week(well not for the match itself, I had suppliers to visit there). That place went crazy. When I left last week, I think India had a 4 to nil advantage in the 7 match series. And an interesting side note...on my flight from Bombay to Goa, I flew via India Air on an Airbus 320. It was loud as hell, but the excellent Portugese dinner I had that night helped alleviate the A320 induced headache. Now on my return to Bombay, I flew via Jet Blue on a Boeing 737....I fell asleep it was so quiet.
And Curval...I had lunch on Thursday at the Bombay Cricket Club. The food was excellent, and aside from the Brits, the atmosphere was great as well
. Seriously Curv...if you get over to Bombay, get yourself into there for lunch or dinner.
A small world story...I was having drinks at the hotel lounge waiting to go to the airport to come back to the States ( the flights usually leave Bombay from 1 am to 4 am) for Europe flights, and I was visiting with a Brit, a Sri Lankan, and an Indian gentlemen who was from Bombay, but has lived in Baltimore for a number of years...anyway, he asks were in the US I live, and tell him, and it turns out his daughter lives in the same town I do.
Cuisine...I didn't have a bad meal. Of course, I like curry to begin with, so that didn't surprise me. I did try a new dish...a sweet Indian desert made from Water Buffalo milk....it was damn good.
In my opinion India is going to be a major player on the sourcing map (I'm stating the obvious, I know), and will give China a run for it's money. I don't know if they can overtake them, but it's gonna be a good race.
