Well, anyone on your six with controlled closure who is a decent shot has a reasonable chance shooting you out of the sky. However, controlling our closure can be almost physically painful in the MA...you want to close in and shoot, you are thinking about other bandits, friendlies diving in front of you to steal the kill, etc...this is what Batfink is trying to say here...
Interesting to consider the mental approaches going on here. I tend to think about the world in physical terms, that carries over to AHII. I tend to think about what myself and the other airplane can do in terms of energy and angles. These things are empirical absolutes, the kind of information the average adult male (average AHII player) is most comfortable working with. I'm just not put together mentally in a way that makes me good at "reading" people though.
Batfink of course must think about E and angles, but through either practice or inclination, he is also thinking in psychological terms-he has a grasp of what the opponent is likely to be thinking. And this is an advantage that demonstrably works for him. Now you can argue that you can only guess what the other guy has in mind, but it is possible to become a rather good guesser with enough experience.
If you have a good enough grasp of E states and relative plane capabilities, you can always know what the other guy CAN do with a very small marging for error. But this information may not help you out of your particular situation. Guy on our six with sufficient E reasonably controlled closure-he CAN kill you every time if he is a hot enough shot. But most of the time, he won't be, and knowing what the other guy is LIKELY to do 9 of 10 times can work when nothing else will.