CV groups don't appear to have a "wake".. very difficult guessing their direction at 15k.
I had the same problem, but it went away when I installed my new video card - but I changed all the sttings from min to max, so I'm afraid I don't know what specifically made it go away.
A squaddie pointed out something that should have been obvious to me: unless it's a 2-cruiser TF or turning in circles, wherever the cruiser is in the formation is the way the TF is headed.
I also find the new darker water makes the ships harder to spot from a great distance, but I don't think that's a bug.