Author Topic: $2.61/gal  (Read 7451 times)

Offline moot

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« Reply #60 on: May 13, 2004, 02:06:01 PM »
2.05 is average in Tempe Steve.
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storch

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« Reply #61 on: May 13, 2004, 02:13:43 PM »
Kubota L245 1978 with mechanical fuel pump, heating the tank is a possibilty.  It's just a pain to need it and have to spend an hour plus doing maintenance.  great tractors otherwise.  a marine fuel/water separator sounds like a great idea as well. thanks staga.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2004, 02:17:37 PM by storch »

Offline Charon

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« Reply #62 on: May 13, 2004, 02:25:04 PM »
Quote
Diesel in Europe is a better grade than what is sold in the U.S. Euro standards call for sulphur levels half of what is required here, which increases production costs.
Euro diesel sulphur requirements are getting more stringent, either this year or next year. I forget which.

I'll have to dig the breakdown up again.


Things are going to get much tighter here in the coming years, and even the oil industry doesn't exactly know what is going to happen. Diesel sulfur is going to drop to 7 ppm leaving the refinery, and can only increase to 15 ppm by the time it leaves the retailer's tank. This has been a major challenge for the oil industry since current highway "lower sulfur" diesel is about 500 ppm, but the downstream distribution channel is in for an even greater challenge.

Petroleum products are shipped in pipelines, tanker trucks, barges, etc. You ship multiple products using the same infrastructure, and some products may have sulfur levels of several thousand ppm. The ability to cross contaminate this diesel above 15 ppm is not that hard, and the impact of that results in damage to the  next generation of pollution control equipment pretty quickly. (Who says the oil industry is all powerful? The automakers kicked the industry’s bellybutton on this requirement, making clean air a “fuel” problem for diesel instead of finding a better emission technology). This of course creates liability issues, and the likelihood that somebody has to eat the cost of diesel that is contaminated above 15 ppm (but nobody knows who yet). These issues have to be worked out. Various off road diesel dynamics and phase in periods issues (some regions and small refiners can carry and produce the 500 ppm for a longer period than other for hardship reasons) further complicate matters by having maybe 6 grades (as I remember off the top of my head) of diesel total. That means marketers will likely carry what’s easier, safer and in the most local demand at the expense of others.

The end result is that most refineries will likely have made the investments to produce the new ultra low sulfur diesel. But, many terminals and bulk plants may not carry it, and some may close. The base price will certainly be higher by some percentage, but supply volatility price increases and general availability of the appropriate diesel for the appropriate engine in all markets is far from certain. Might not be an issue, or could be a total mess in about 2006. Fortunately, Iraqi crude is low sulfur crude :)

Charon

Here’s a detailed analysis: http://www.nacsonline.com/NR/exeres/2E275E2B-AE24-4CEB-AFC6-1DD2A1E4099C.htm

Offline Charon

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« Reply #63 on: May 13, 2004, 02:30:26 PM »
As for gas prices, refinery capacity, etc. The only way around that is a regulated industry. In a free market, and with all of the consolidation (oil company mergers/less competiton/set world demand) the upstream oil industry is doing exactly what it needs to do to maximize shareholder value and quarterly profitability - like it or not. (I'm glad I telecommute :)) Iraq wont result in cheaper gas (LOL!), just more profits upstream for whoever gets the E&P contracts. That's where the real money is (Big oil). Actually selling it is small, inconsquential oil. Even refining is more trouble than its worth for the majors.

Charon
« Last Edit: May 13, 2004, 02:33:41 PM by Charon »

Offline rpm

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« Reply #64 on: May 13, 2004, 02:33:03 PM »
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Originally posted by Mini D
Nice to have a car that gets 30+ to the gallon right now.

Diesel is cheaper than gasoline for PUC vehicles (semis, commercial, etc).  For the public, it's heavily taxed so the price usually falls somewhere between 87 and 92 octane fuel (Usually closer to 92).  For PUC it is usually 10-15% less than 87.

MiniD

Mini, you just THINK it's cheaper. Trucks with a PUC sticker get the bill all at once. Lots of states work this way with a reciprocal agreement to share fuel taxes. You can buy $50 worth of fuel or pay the tax anyway whether you buy or not.

I remember once in Arizona at a little rinky dink station in the desert where I stopped for fuel. There was a sign saying 77 cent a gallon tax paid. Tax Paid ment for vehicles with the PUC sticker. An old man in his RV came near attacking the guy when he told him it was 1.07 a gallon for him after he filled up. :rofl
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Offline myelo

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« Reply #65 on: May 13, 2004, 02:37:57 PM »
Storch, in the winter it helps to keep the fuel tank full to decrease condensation. Also there is usually a drain at the bottom of the fule tank to drain out any water, which settles to the bottom of the tank.
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Offline eskimo2

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« Reply #66 on: May 13, 2004, 04:05:04 PM »
You'd think that after all of these "Blood for Oil" wars we'd own one of those moddle East countries by now...

eskimo

Offline Gyro/T69

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« Reply #67 on: May 13, 2004, 07:53:16 PM »
Correct me if I’m wrong here. But doesn’t the commodities market have a wee bit to do with the price of oil? A very fast check showed today’s Light Crude at 40.85 a bbl.
http://money.cnn.com/markets/commodities.html

While in Oct 2003 it was only 31.88 bbl. That seems to be a large jump in 6 months or so. http://www.oil.net/reuters/energyOverview.asp

If there’s a big demand for light Crude, doesn’t that force the price to climb? Higher gas prices at the end?  It seems Soybeans climbed up 10.25 per bu just today. Wouldn’t that price increase also show up at the soybean pump at your local grocery store at some point?

Offline Torque

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« Reply #68 on: May 13, 2004, 08:52:22 PM »
That ain't nothing yet wait till mid summer. Going to the gas station will feel like being mauled by a bear minus the coupons.

Offline Charon

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« Reply #69 on: May 13, 2004, 10:05:26 PM »
Quote
Correct me if I’m wrong here. But doesn’t the commodities market have a wee bit to do with the price of oil? A very fast check showed today’s Light Crude at 40.85 a bbl.


Absolutely. And that price is usually controlled by the amount of oil released into the market. The goal is keep prices at the maximum profit point short of seriously impacting demand. This largely sets the base price of gasoline or diesel, etc. For a long time OPEC held production to fit a "basket" that (off the top of my head) kept prices in the $23-$28/bbl range.

The same factors come into play downstream with refined products like gasoline and diesel. With the refining capacity in the US at 98 percent in the summer, any hint of a disruption due to refinery fire or pipeline break etc. in a region means a potential shortage and higher rack prices. Combined with various environmental fuels regulation, and the inability to easily make up a shortfall (in many cases) because Indiana gasoline can't be used in Chicago, and you can get an immediate short term spike in gasoline prices that can be quite high. No one wants to have dry tanks, and it's a seller's market.

Charon
« Last Edit: May 13, 2004, 10:07:28 PM by Charon »

Offline Nash

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« Reply #70 on: May 13, 2004, 10:12:05 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Torque
That ain't nothing yet wait till mid summer. Going to the gas station will feel like being mauled by a bear minus the coupons.


LOL!!!

Offline Holden McGroin

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« Reply #71 on: May 13, 2004, 10:17:32 PM »
If one were to assume a 6% fuel price inflation rate, 0.35 per gallon in 1970 would be 2.53 / gal now.

We have been living with cheap fuel for a long time now.
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Offline Estes

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« Reply #72 on: May 13, 2004, 10:17:48 PM »
Filled up today. 1.89 here.

Offline Steve

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« Reply #73 on: May 13, 2004, 10:21:48 PM »
I may have to get a loan for my next fill up.
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Offline lazs2

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« Reply #74 on: May 14, 2004, 10:39:02 AM »
I can get 12mpg if I keep my foot out of the secondaries.

lazs