Author Topic: Make Iran Make the 1st Move  (Read 4156 times)

Offline Thrawn

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« Reply #120 on: January 29, 2005, 03:21:38 PM »
:aok

Offline SaburoS

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« Reply #121 on: January 29, 2005, 03:39:29 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
Me telling you that I disagree with your pov and that I think you are wrong insults you?

No need to continue the discussion if thats how you are going to take it.


No, not at all. It is obviously clear that we disagree with each other. Your wanting to throw in labels was and is not necessary. Simple, no?

Yes, it is best you withdraw if you feel you can't carry on a meaningful discussion without childish namecalling/labels.
Men fear thought as they fear nothing else on earth -- more than ruin -- more even than death.... Thought is subversive and revolutionary, destructive and terrible, thought is merciless to privilege, established institutions, and comfortable habit. ... Bertrand Russell

Offline GRUNHERZ

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« Reply #122 on: January 29, 2005, 03:52:51 PM »
Labels? Adjectives are not labels. I sincirely feel that your ideas are naive because you seem to assume all these extremely complex precision strikes will go off smooth and cheap. I think your ideas are not well thought out because you think reforming intelligence is some simple thing and you dont account for the time it will take or the enormous costs requited to reform the dozen or so major US intelligence organizations. You also seem to think its just a matter of finding the precise location of a particukar person and send in a precision team to arrest him quickly, well thats not easy. Thats exactly the mission profile of Mogadishu and those things dont go off easy, ever. Now you want to the same but with no close ground presence or armored vehicles for support and extraction.  If you bring in heavy air support you just end up with a big price tag again. Not mentiuon that your plan requires many of these operations to capture the Al qaeda terrorists that you yourself admit would try to hide and be dispersed.  

There are so many holes in your story that it would take hours of face to face discussion to maybe give you an idea of  how wrong you are.  But seeing that you threaten to make it even more personal and angry in a private setting I really see no point wasting my time to go see somebody who will yell and scream obscenties at me when I tell him his ideas are not well thought out and try to explain the weaknesses of his argument as I see them.

So why go on about this topic, Saburo?

Tell me, have you taken any cool pictures lately?
« Last Edit: January 29, 2005, 03:55:45 PM by GRUNHERZ »

Offline SaburoS

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« Reply #123 on: January 29, 2005, 08:26:37 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
Labels? Adjectives are not labels. I sincirely feel that your ideas are naive because you seem to assume all these extremely complex precision strikes will go off smooth and cheap. I think your ideas are not well thought out because you think reforming intelligence is some simple thing and you dont account for the time it will take or the enormous costs requited to reform the dozen or so major US intelligence organizations. You also seem to think its just a matter of finding the precise location of a particukar person and send in a precision team to arrest him quickly, well thats not easy. Thats exactly the mission profile of Mogadishu and those things dont go off easy, ever. Now you want to the same but with no close ground presence or armored vehicles for support and extraction.  If you bring in heavy air support you just end up with a big price tag again. Not mentiuon that your plan requires many of these operations to capture the Al qaeda terrorists that you yourself admit would try to hide and be dispersed.  

There are so many holes in your story that it would take hours of face to face discussion to maybe give you an idea of  how wrong you are.  But seeing that you threaten to make it even more personal and angry in a private setting I really see no point wasting my time to go see somebody who will yell and scream obscenties at me when I tell him his ideas are not well thought out and try to explain the weaknesses of his argument as I see them.

So why go on about this topic, Saburo?


My price tag is much cheaper than an invasion/occupation/govt building that we're prosecuting in Afghanistan right now. Success rate would be higher as covert ops are just that, covert.
You have the forces on the ready for standby when the need arises.
Big difference is that we are tracking/targeting suspects for extraction, not toppling govts and nation building. We don't need a major overhaul of our intelligence forces, they just need a common goal of actually gathering intelligence.
As far as my making it more personal and angry has to do directly on how you wish to pursue it.
You want to remain civil in private, I'll respond in kind (as I try to do here as well). If I'm yelling obsenities, it's only cause I'm responding to yours. I thought I was clear on that.

At near the start of this thread I posted I was against our policy on Afghanistan and Iraq.
You were surprised on Afghanistan. I gave you some of my reasons as to why.

Afghanistan:
How long have we been there as a military presence?
Projected for how long our continued stay?
Total dollars to date?
Total projected dollars for the whole campaign?
US and Allied casualties to date?
Projected?
Total Afghanistan civillians killed to date?
Wounded?
Al Quaeda bases/camps found?
Other terrorist bases/camps?
Where are the Al Quaeda members from Bin Laden's group?
Bin Laden?
Reason given for involvement in Afghanistan?

Bottom line is when any country invades another, the local populace tends to get up in arms about an invasion. The more civillian casualties, the breeding ground for hate and revenge.
The USSR couldn't control Afghanistan and it was on her border.
War on terror? We're going to lose if we keep invading/occupying/overthrowing other sovereign nations. We're not talking total war here where anything and everything is open for targeting (like WWII).
The only time I could recall it (non-total war) happening and working is when Vietnam invaded and overthrew Pol Pot's Khmer Rouge forces. After Khampuchia (former Cambodia) stabilized, Vietnam withdrew her forces.
Now we can keep going around in circles, or, how about you fill in the answers of the above questions. You should know them right? After all you're the expert.
After you're done, you tell me that the present ops in Afghanistan is the best policy.
Why don't we have Bin Laden in custody?

...And who's naive?

Unless you have nothing new to add and wish not to answer my above questions, we'll agree to remain gentlemen about it and agree to disagree.

History will prove one of us right.

Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
Tell me, have you taken any cool pictures lately?


Actually sitting on some images that I have to process. Went to Vancouver, some good ones there.

How about you?
Men fear thought as they fear nothing else on earth -- more than ruin -- more even than death.... Thought is subversive and revolutionary, destructive and terrible, thought is merciless to privilege, established institutions, and comfortable habit. ... Bertrand Russell

Offline GRUNHERZ

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« Reply #124 on: January 29, 2005, 08:37:01 PM »
You can eaily find the casualty and cost numbers of the current Afhghan operation,  in fact I think you prolly know them.

However I feel that you are trying a pull a fast one with this instance on numbers because you would want to compare the real numbers of a real operation to the hypothetical numbers of your hypothetical dream operation.

Also what makes you think that we would be any more succesful in finding Bin Laden?  We are doing exactlt that which you suggest and we still cant get him.  WE are using extreme intel efforts toi  try to find him and have been from day one.  But it's really really really hard to locate a single specific individual. I must make that point you because your plan is centered on that idea, the idea of locating single people and picking them up. It just doesnt work out easily, yet you make plans that we should target hundreds of individuals in that way.

Economies of scale work in military operations as well so I'd say that your operation would be far more expensive than you imagine if we were to seek out more or less individual targets with the level of specificity that you reccomend.

And what makes yoiu think that the taliban would just sit around fiddly diddly while we attacked targets all around their nation with helicopter raids? They would fight us too.  

Also where would we launch these strikes out of if we couldnt occupy afghan land for permenant forward bases?  Do you think Pakistan would let us do it to the exent your plan requires with all their problems? I doubt it.  

Would you make bases in the northern alliance area in the 10% of the land north they occupy?  If so wouldnt we be getting involved in the afghan civil war, because they would surely ask for help in order to get the bases.

Or do you think choppers shpuld just fly hours over all of Afghanistan from bases in the former USSR states?  

Maybe from CVs in the ocean?

What would that do to your element of surprise?

There are just so many tremendous issues with your overly simple vision of this plan that we can go on for pages and pages here Saburo.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2005, 08:44:01 PM by GRUNHERZ »

Offline SaburoS

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« Reply #125 on: January 29, 2005, 08:55:33 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ
You can eaily find the casualty and cost numbers of the current Afhghan operation,  in fact I think you prolly know them.

However I feel that you are trying a pull a fast one with this instance on numbers because you would want to compare the real numbers of a real operation to the hypothetical numbers of your hypothetical dream operation.

Also what makes you think that we would be any more succesful in finding Bin Laden?  We are doing exactlt that which you suggest and we still cant get him.  WE are using extreme intel efforts toi  try to find him and have been from day one.  But it's really really really hard to locate a single specific individual. I must make that point you because your plan is centered on that idea, the idea of locating single people and picking them up. It just doesnt work out easily, yet you make plans that we should target hundreds of individuals in that way.

Economies of scale work in military operations as well so I'd say that your operation would be far more expensive than you imagine if we were to seek out more or less individual targets with the level of specificity that you reccomend.


Go ahead Grun, post them. Use your figures, just be honest about it.

So where was Bin Laden after 9/11? LOL, my plan would sure be a lot less costly than our present Afghanistan one. Remember we went to Afghanistan to find Bin Laden. Find him at all costs. Well after how many dead and wounded? Both military and civillians? Remember we were told that there were untold numbers of Al Quaeda training bases and that we were going to go hunt down Bin Laden and his group.
Targeting Bin Laden covertly without a huge military presence in Afghanistan would most likely result in pinpointing him. We gave him a reason to hide with our very uncovert presence.
My way would have been less costly in everyway, less of our boys coming back in coffins.
We don't have Bin Laden in custody, we've got casualties, inflicted civillian casualties, spent big dollars. REAL success with our Afghanistan campaign... OOOOKAY. In the mean time here's betting he and his group aren't even in Afghanistan anymore. Can't find someone who isn't there. We're wasting good men and resources on a poorly planned military ops.

So why are we really in Afghanistan, again?
Men fear thought as they fear nothing else on earth -- more than ruin -- more even than death.... Thought is subversive and revolutionary, destructive and terrible, thought is merciless to privilege, established institutions, and comfortable habit. ... Bertrand Russell

Offline NUKE

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« Reply #126 on: January 29, 2005, 09:03:30 PM »
We went to Afghanistan to remove Al-Qaeda and capture Bin Ladden.

We went to Aghanistan to remove the Taliban , who allowed Al-Qaeda to have an entire country to operate from.

We did not capture Bin Ladden yet.

Al-Qaeda no longer has a host country with a host government allowing them to operate freely.

What's not to like so far?

Offline SaburoS

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« Reply #127 on: January 29, 2005, 09:04:11 PM »
BTW Grun,
Just so you know where I'm coming from.
I grew up from a military family. I've got friends in the military. I don't want someone sitting behind a desk making life and death decisions using our military personnel as pawns. War is a serious business not to be entered casually. I want my govt to make absolutely sure of its goals and have a very defined set of targets, not changing its goals inn the middle of the game, so to speak.
I love my country and the forces who protect her. I don't want anyone getting a visit informing the family of a soldier that he/she won't be coming home.
We better be damn sure before we go to war.
Afghanistan and Iraq are both wrong in how we're executing them, IMHO.
Men fear thought as they fear nothing else on earth -- more than ruin -- more even than death.... Thought is subversive and revolutionary, destructive and terrible, thought is merciless to privilege, established institutions, and comfortable habit. ... Bertrand Russell

Offline Raider179

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« Reply #128 on: January 29, 2005, 09:05:19 PM »
I believe Bin Laden to be in IRan.... Discuss... lol

Offline NUKE

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« Reply #129 on: January 29, 2005, 09:12:15 PM »
It's obviously now become a Grun/ Saburo exchange.

Why not just email each other?

Offline Raider179

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« Reply #130 on: January 29, 2005, 09:14:34 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by NUKE
We went to Afghanistan to remove Al-Qaeda and capture Bin Ladden.

We went to Aghanistan to remove the Taliban , who allowed Al-Qaeda to have an entire country to operate from.

We did not capture Bin Ladden yet.

Al-Qaeda no longer has a host country with a host government allowing them to operate freely.

What's not to like so far?


Good points Nuke. Regardless of whether we got Osama we got rid of the Taliban government who allowed him and who knows who else to operate with impunity. They were warned and when they failed to heed they showed which side they were on. Good riddance.

Offline SaburoS

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« Reply #131 on: January 29, 2005, 09:20:37 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by GRUNHERZ

And what makes yoiu think that the taliban would just sit around fiddly diddly while we attacked targets all around their nation with helicopter raids? They would fight us too.  

Also where would we launch these strikes out of if we couldnt occupy afghan land for permenant forward bases?  Do you think Pakistan would let us do it to the exent your plan requires with all their problems? I doubt it.  

Would you make bases in the northern alliance area in the 10% of the land north they occupy?  If so wouldnt we be getting involved in the afghan civil war, because they would surely ask for help in order to get the bases.

Or do you think choppers shpuld just fly hours over all of Afghanistan from bases in the former USSR states?  

Maybe from CVs in the ocean?

What would that do to your element of surprise?

There are just so many tremendous issues with your overly simple vision of this plan that we can go on for pages and pages here Saburo.


Where the hell did I say helicopter raids? What part of covert do you not understand? Talk about framing your opponents' argument. We've got spec ops going around all over the world. Yes, it would take pages and pages of your framed arguments attributed to me.
BTW, you're still evading answering some easily answered questions. You ever going to answer them or are you just content on spinning away? C'mon Grun, answer them.
BTW you might want to start a new post rather than editing. Helps keep it somewhat cronological.

Again:

Afghanistan:
How long have we been there as a military presence?
Projected for how long our continued stay?
Total dollars to date?
Total projected dollars for the whole campaign?
US and Allied casualties to date?
Projected?
Total Afghanistan civillians killed to date?
Wounded?
Al Quaeda bases/camps found?
Other terrorist bases/camps?
Where are the Al Quaeda members from Bin Laden's group?
Bin Laden?
Reason given for involvement in Afghanistan?

Tell me again how I'll pull a fast one after you post figures? We're having a discussion on our present day policy and ops in Afghanistan, remember?
Show me how we're prosecuting this one the best way.
Men fear thought as they fear nothing else on earth -- more than ruin -- more even than death.... Thought is subversive and revolutionary, destructive and terrible, thought is merciless to privilege, established institutions, and comfortable habit. ... Bertrand Russell

Offline Raider179

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« Reply #132 on: January 29, 2005, 09:32:01 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by SaburoS
Where the hell did I say helicopter raids? What part of covert do you not understand? Talk about framing your opponents' argument. We've got spec ops going around all over the world. Yes, it would take pages and pages of your framed arguments attributed to me.
BTW, you're still evading answering some easily answered questions. You ever going to answer them or are you just content on spinning away? C'mon Grun, answer them.
BTW you might want to start a new post rather than editing. Helps keep it somewhat cronological.

Again:

Afghanistan:
How long have we been there as a military presence?
Projected for how long our continued stay?
Total dollars to date?
Total projected dollars for the whole campaign?
US and Allied casualties to date?
Projected?
Total Afghanistan civillians killed to date?
Wounded?
Al Quaeda bases/camps found?
Other terrorist bases/camps?
Where are the Al Quaeda members from Bin Laden's group?
Bin Laden?
Reason given for involvement in Afghanistan?

Tell me again how I'll pull a fast one after you post figures? We're having a discussion on our present day policy and ops in Afghanistan, remember?
Show me how we're prosecuting this one the best way.



Please dont hijack this thread. The title is Make Iran make the 1st move. you want to talk afghanistan take it to another thread unless you are gonna link it into the Iran thing.

Offline NUKE

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« Reply #133 on: January 29, 2005, 09:33:07 PM »
I'm telling you, it's a Saburo/ Grun stupid fest at this point.

Guys, just email each other.

Offline GRUNHERZ

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« Reply #134 on: January 29, 2005, 09:38:34 PM »
Covert raids now?

How do they get in to position?

Is it walking in by foot and walking out by foot (with caputerd high value target in tow) through miles and miles of territory controled by the distinctivly unfriendly taliban...