Slight Problem in FSO setup?

[JB42]

Did a little research for this last FSO in regards to ratio of Allies to Axis. This is what I found:

Frame 1

Allies had 113 flyers and flew 139 sorties

Axis had 100 flyers and flew 118 sorties

Frame 2

Allies had 99 flyers and flew 146 sorties

Axis had 108 flyers and flew 120 sorties

In the write up, it is said that Allies are 45% and Axis is 55%. I don't know if this is supposed to be a hard cap number or a ratio in order to account for second lives. Either way, the numbers come out a little funny.

Also in Frame 1 Allies put 36 IL2s and in Frame 2 put 48 IL2s in the air. Now this may seem a little whiney to you guys but it seems to me that the Allies are given the ability to throw a massive raid together and then turn around and put that many fighters in the air. I mean look at Frame 2 numbers. 47 more sorties than players? That seems a bit out of whack.

[Captain Virgil Hilts]

Well, the Axis lost two or three squads, I think two were lost AFTER the orders for the second frame came out. We were switched to Axis (we'd asked for Axis assignment to begin with) after the 1st frame. But after that, the 56th and one of the JG squads left, and maybe one more. The 327th brought in 3 pilots over our max, and had them fly with the Rogues to help fill out the rosters. The Axis did okay considering, and would have won the 1st frame if not for the penalty.

[daddog]

Good point JB42. Many times in the past I have written in the orders to the Frame C.O. for them to give the 2nd life AC to a squad that is “not” one of their largest. Or I have said from 11-15 on down. This keeps things reasonable. Something I never told Stream and was over looked on my part.  My apologies. APDrone posted about your thread on the CM BB and the Squad Ops team will make adjustments I am sure.

[ghostdancer]

The percentages sited are desired percentages but keep in mind we usually try to put more on the Axis side because they don't tend to turn out the nubmers on the average. Thereby allocating 55% to the Axis in many cases will make sure their numbers are close to the allies.

Axis:
4-6 MAW
4-6 UNFORGIVEN
4-6 Rogue Squadron
4-6 325th Checkertails VFG
7-10 ~C-Hawks~
7-10 sickpuppies
7-10 65th FS ~Fightin *****~
7-10 327th Steel Talons
11-15 III/Jabostaffle Luftwaffe ~ES~
16-21 ~U.S.M.C~
16-21 ~~FATE~~
21-27 III./JG44 Night Hawks

Total: 108/148


Allied:
4-6 9GIAP VVS RKKA
4-6 VFS 1000
4-6 DOW
7-10 UKNIGHTED JG26 - 357th FG
7-10 412th FS Braunco Mustangs
7-10 Damned
7-10 Shillelagh
11-15 32nd Flying Mongrels
11-15 Arabian Knights
16-21 68thlightninglancers
16-21 Nightmares VMF-101

Total: 94 / 130
[/list]

The above is the modified squad list for frame 2 (dropping, Gravediggers, 56th, and JG54). And the pontential spread is still 46.5% for the allies and 53.5% for the Axis.

The problem here is the normal problem that squads assigned the allied side tend to turn out more players than squads assigned to the Axis squads.

There is little a CM can do to make squads turn out more of their pilots. Except what stream has doen which is to weight the spread more toward the Axis side so that the numbers turn out closer to 50/50.

In frame 2 the numbers were very close.

In frame 1 the allies had the advantage on numbers even with 2 allied squads not showing up at all (Gravediggers and 56th).

Good point about considering on whether restricting what size squad can up in IL2s.

However, do keep in mind that the Axis even out numbered and with the allies upping large squads in IL2s with second lives have held their own.

Frame 1 would have gone to the axis if not for 200 point penalty against the axis for a squad upping again and fighting after they died early in the frame.

Frame 2 the Axis won, by a hairs breath, but still they did win.

So the fighting has been very close even with the numbers even and the Allies able to use 2nd lives with IL2s.

So actually to anser the title of the thread .. nope there is not a slight problem with the FSO setup (miniscule if you want to talk about a difference of 1.5%). Both frames have been very, very close point wise and hinge on tactics .. the Axis does have the potential to turn out 15% more pilots than the allies .. they just haven't done it but still have won both frames if not for the point penalty.

[ghostdancer]

As I said the real issue here is turnout. Here is the info for frame 2:

AXIS
04 : 4-6 MAW   
04 : 4-6 UNFORGIVEN   
06 : 4-6 Rogue Squadron (5 327th with Rogue)
07 : 4-6 325th Checkertails VFG   
08 : 7-10 ~C-Hawks~   
05 : 7-10 sickpuppies   
02 : 7-10 65th FS ~Fightin *****~ (under by 3)
12 : 7-10 327th Steel Talons (5 flew with Rogue)
08: 11-15 III/Jabostaffle Luftwaffe ~ES~ (under by 1)
09: 16-21 ~U.S.M.C~ (under by 5)
14: 16-21 ~~FATE~~   
24: 21-27 III./JG44 Night Hawks   
[/list]

As you can see you had 3 of the Axis squads that were under their minimum number. Then you had several other squads at their minimum number )4 squads in total. That is 7 out of 12 squads at their minimum or below.

04 : 4-6 9GIAP VVS RKKA
03 : 4-6 VFS 1000
05 : 4-6 DOW
05 : 7-10 UKNIGHTED JG26 - 357th FG

03 : 7-10 412th FS Braunco Mustangs (under by 2)
07 : 7-10 Damned
08 : 7-10 Shillelagh
13 : 11-15 32nd Flying Mongrels
13 : 11-15 Arabian Knights
18 : 16-21 68thlightninglancers
20 : 16-21 Nightmares VMF-101
[/list]

In contrast the allies had 1 squad under their minimum number and then 4 squads at their minimum. So that 5 out of 11. However, they had several of their larger squads turn out in the mid range or close the high range versus only 2 LW squad hitting their high range.

So it is well within the capabilities or I should say possibilities for the LW to field more pilots and outnumber the allied pilots. But they just haven't for whatever reason.

[JB42]

I can sorta see your point GD, but notice the number of IL2s upped. Last I checked there are no squad numbers for 36 and 48. That means at least 2 squads are upping IL2s and on top of that, adding 36 and 48 fighters at the end of the IL2 sortie. That throws the balance way off in the end.

Its kinda like the whole bomber box debate. If the Allies have 100 players on and all fly Ponies (this is all hypothetical for the sake of easyness to follow) and the Axis shoots down 100 planes, there are no Allies left to fly. However, with the same number only this time the Allies up 60 Ponies and 40 B26 formations, the Axis shoots down 100 planes and there is the potential to have 80 more Allied planes in the air.

So my points are (and this is not just about the current FSO, but future ones as well):

A) Should 2nd life / bomber box planes have a max.?
B) Should that max. be counted into the overall percentage?
c) Should the 2nd life fighter have to wait until a certain time to reup?

Again, just chewing on some ideas here.

[ghostdancer]

All good feedback to consider.


A)Should 2nd life / bomber box planes have a max.? [/b]
Usually the Admin CM does factor this into his thinking. He does this by setting an original max number for planes being able to up. If we say 30 IL2s can up then we know an additional 30 planes can come into play later in the frame.

This is also the reason for setting different starting percentages per side. So lets look at this with the numbers double where appropriate:

04 : 4-6 9GIAP VVS RKKA
03 : 4-6 VFS 1000
10 : 4-6 DOW
10 : 7-10 UKNIGHTED JG26 - 357th FG
03 : 7-10 412th FS Braunco Mustangs (under by 2)
07 : 7-10 Damned
08 : 7-10 Shillelagh
13 : 11-15 32nd Flying Mongrels
13 : 11-15 Arabian Knights
36 : 16-21 68thlightninglancers
40 : 16-21 Nightmares VMF-101

So with the second lives the allies had 147 planes in the air versus the axis 103. A massive number advantage at first look. However, numbers are not everything.

The allies field 48 out of their 99 planes as IL2s. The Shills and the DAMNED were escorts. So 15 escorts, roughly 7.5 escorts per 24 IL2s (they were two IL2s strike packages  .. actually 25 & 23 IL2s was the split). Leaving only 36 planes to defend 3 targets from Axis attack.

Overall I would say this was a calculate risk taken by the allied CiC. IL2s are very tough to shoot down because of their armor and then can turn and burn on the deck. They can't climb and they can't catch you. But given them effective escort they can still be a handful. But the allied CiC gambled on a thin escort screen (in frame 1 you had something like 20 LA5Ns escorting 10 IL2s on average) and a very thin defense screen.

He probably hoped that the IL2s could hit the target and up again in time with their second lives to defend the allied bases before the LW strikes came in. However, the IL2s is a slow plane and most squads suvivors will fly home to their base (many of the IL2s in the V44 strike were damaged so augering would have given the LW the kill .. so they flew home .. delaying them upping again).

So what were the results? The VVS killed the axis Vehicle base and the Axis Airbase. Now this was not a given. If they did not they would have to used their 2nd lives as IL2s since only the LA5N carries eggs and then only 2 x 100 kg bombs. Worthless for taking down hangars. In frame 1 the IL2s did fail to take down the Vehicle base.

But they did kill those two bases. However, the Axis punched through and wiped out the allied bases. Net sum was both sides were even in the JABO factor.

So it came down to air to air. The IL2s launched at about the T+50 mark. By that time many of the LW were already knocked out along with the VVS fighters. Numbers were even until the IL2s upped again and then the VVS had about double the numbers.

But it came down to an air to air fight. LW shot down 77 and VVS shot down 69. So by the time all the extra VVS were up they had not targets left really .. ground targets were already done, and only thing left was hunting down the LW survivors if they could find and catch them after the T+60 mark. Main area of fighting was up by the Axis convoy because it was not orginally killed. So LW and VVS slugged it out up there.

So even with the second lives the Allied CiCs decisions play an interesting part of the battle that actually lessen the advantage of those additional planes by the time they could come into play.

[/b]B) Should that max. be counted into the overall percentage?[/b]
That overall percentage actually is usually based or determined with the 2nd life in mind along with other factors. For example the 190F8 and 110 are much better JABO planes than the 110 if you really think about it. Or at the very least much more versatile. Both can work in the JABO role and defend against a strike. Remember the only real strike capability for the VVS is the IL2. The 110 can handle the IL2. However, the IL2 would have a problem stopping a 110. Yes, it is armored however, its speed, lack of climbing ability etc. make it a difficult plane to conduct a defense with. By this I mean a flight of IL2s can not stop a flight of 110s on a JABO mission. A flight of 110s and FW190s can stop a flight of IL2s.

So the LW planes are bit more versatile while the VVS are much more restricted. That is also taken into consideration. When setting percentages besides just pure numbers.

c) Should the 2nd life fighter have to wait until a certain time to reup? [/b]
This is a thought but in many cases they already limit themselves to later in the frame. Remember they have to hit target by T+60 and most cases when in a plane like an IL2 or JU87 or other slow attack plane it usually takes 40-50 minutes to get to the target .. while following a path to it that tries to skirt the defenders.

In the case of the Nightmares we reupped at T+50 with out second lives. We could say T+60 for upping for second lives but not sure how much of an impact an additional 10 to 15 minutes wait would have.

[ghostdancer]

Now a major thing dictating things in the event and the setup Stream came up with is strike capability.

VVS
IL2 - 2x250 kg bombs, 4 rockets (roughly 1540 lbs if ordinance)
LA5N - 2x100 kb bombs (440 lbs of ordinance)
LA7 - 2x100 kb bombs (440 lbs of ordinance)
Yak9T - no bombs or rockets
Yak9U - no bombs or rockets

LW
109G6 - 1x250 kg bomb (550 lbs of ordinance)
109G10 - 1x250 kg bomb (550 lbs of ordinance)
190D9 - 1x500 kg bomb (1100 lbs of ordinance)
190F8 - 1x500kg bomb, 4x50 kg bombs (1540 lbs of ordinance)
110G2 - 2x500 kg bombs, 4x50 kg bombs (2640 lbs of ordiance)
[/list]

As was the case the 109s and LA5Ns were really used in an attack role but that was a strategic decision. The 190F8 carries the same amount of ordinance as the IL2 and actually the 190D9 comes to close to carry the same amount also. The 110 is the big boy in this event when it comes to ordinance.

Remember both sides only had to use 4 plane types. The LW could have gone with all 190F8s which I would say is a much more capable, survivable and versatile plane than the IL2.

So the LW had more flexibility and more options while the VVS were stuck with just the IL2 to hit a Vehicle and Airbase at.

Now lets take a look at the targets.

The Vehicles base had 3 vehicle hangers, 4 ammo bunkers, 10 fuel bunkers, 5 barracks, and 1 radar. The airbase had 1 vehicle hangar, 3 fighter hangers, 2 bomber hangers, 2 ammo bunkers, 4 fuel bunkers, 1 barracks, and 1 radar.

We leave the guns out of this equation.

Hangars take 2871.2  lbs of ordinance to kill. All the bunker typess and radar take 312.5 lbs to kill.

So to kill the Vehicle and airbase both sides need to land 34,590.8 lbs of ordinance.

Meaning 23 IL2s on the VVS side need to hit with all their bombs and rockets. On the LW side 23 190F8s or 14 110s.

The VVS upped 48 IL2s .. or roughly double what they needed under the best conditions. Maybe it would have been better if they had only upped 34 IL2s .. basically sending in 150% of the ordinance needed to take out the targets.  This is where it really starts to boil down to strategy, calculated risks, and actually battle.

The allied CiC decided to send in enough guys to make sure the targets were wiped out. In frame 1 that did not happen and the follow up IL2 attack was ripped to pieces because there were not enough escorts.

If he had gone with 34 IL2s that would given him say 16 more fighters to defend with. Possibly preventing the LW from killing all three of their targets 100%.

So I don't think stream was that off on his setup. But, yes I can envision other situations FSO where you do want to cap the ammount of 2nd life planes. But it is hard to come up with a hard and fast rule about it. Part of it is coming up with thinking about the capabilities of both sides aircraft and thinking about what is the most likely course of CiCs using them. Some times you are suprised at what people come up with. But in most cases it does balance out .. got with a massive JABO force .. weak defenses. etc.

[ghostdancer]

Oh, and stream has moved the 332nd (11-15  squad who fielded 13) over to the Axis side for frame 3.

[o0Stream140o]

Allied Minimum: 88
Axis Minimum: 109

Expected total for both sides Frame 3 (Minimum): 197

[Sled]

USMC is suposed to be 11-15 or this event. I have checked with Tracer, and he did put us (USMC) down for 11-15 in this event. I don't know why we are still listed as 16-21.

[o0Stream140o]

I know sled... I took that into account... just haven't changed the events site.  Will change it.

[Sled]

[Captain Virgil Hilts]

While there have been problems with squads dropping out, this has been pretty balanced when you look closely.

I'm not sure either side has out maneuvered the other strategicly.
In either frame.

Even short some pilots, the Axis squeaked out a narrow victory in Frame 2, and had there not been a penalty in Frame 1, they'd have done the same there as well. Frame 3 will tell the tale.

The whole FSO CM Team has done well with this tour, it is a good matchup and a close exciting battle.

[TracerX]

Originally posted by SLED
USMC is suposed to be 11-15 or this event. I have checked with Tracer, and he did put us (USMC) down for 11-15 in this event. I don't know why we are still listed as 16-21.

Thanks for noting the error Stream, Ghostdancer is calculating the side strenght however with the wrong numbers.   (Edit: I see now that you both recognize the mistake.  )

May I chime in on the IL-2 second life debate.  I have been on both sides of IL-2 raids, and I think the IL-2 is a capeable enough bird that it should almost never get a second life.  It has one of the best gun packages in the game, it is a flying tank, and it doesn't have to shoot anything down to be effective.  A radiator/oil hit from the rear gunner position is just as good as a kill because that plane will not be able to refuel, while the IL-2 even if shot down, will.  We lost 4 planes to LA-5's, and 3 to IL-2's this last frame.  Two of those were planes that landed but could not continue because of dammage sustained while attacking the IL-2's.  Additionally, we had a period of almost 10 minutes where the IL-2's were without effective escort, and I still only managed to shoot down 2 IL-2's.  I was landing 2+ 30mm cannon hits, and the planes kept flying.  It took a lot less time to kill the 4 LA-5's than those 2 IL-2's I got in the last frame.  

People forget the IL-2 is a Bomber/Attack, not a Fighter/Attack plane, yet they use it like a Fighter/Attack plane.  I might argue that the IL-2 is the Best Bomber/Attack plane in the game.  I would argue it has a better chance of surviving a frame than an A20 or a TBM, but I haven't heard an argument for second life in either of those aircraft.  Noone would dream of sending the A20 or TBM on an assignment unescorted, but for some reason, the IL-2 is frequently sent with light or no escort on its job.  Additional proof that it is a very capable airplane.  Noone should feel they did not get their money's worth with even a single life in an IL-2.  I never do.

With regards to this last frame, we were lucky that both sides destroyed their targets in the first wave, but what if they hadn't?  Had the Axis missed a train or building at one of the targets, it would have been nearly impossible to make a second strike successfully.  Alternatively, if the Allies did not kill all of their targets in the first wave, I doubt that the Axis would have had sufficient forces to stop a 20-30 plane raid of haingliders with slingshots that late in the frame.  We ended up with about the best the Axis could do, and it was a narrow victory.  The potential was much higher to go the other way.