Author Topic: German Elections (Read 601 times)

Holden McGroin · « **on:** September 19, 2005, 05:38:31 AM »

Looks like Angela Merkel will have to make some deals if she wants to be Chancellor. Schroeder could get another term if he is a better deal maker.

In the article I read about the election, it says that if after three tries the parliment cannot choose, the president could appoint the new chancellor.

I googled 'german chancellor appoint' and sure enough a Wikipedia article about Adolph appeared.

Of special note is the last entry in the trivia section, 'Hitler is still alive'

Holden McGroin · « **Reply #1 on:** September 19, 2005, 05:40:24 AM »

Damn... It's gone.... While I was posting it dissapperaed.

Nilsen · « **Reply #2 on:** September 19, 2005, 06:11:09 AM »

Hoping for Shroeder myself but im afraid its up to the Germans. Maybe thats the way its supposed to be.

babek- · « **Reply #3 on:** September 19, 2005, 08:43:48 AM »

Its a very complicated political situation in germany now.

Only few weeks ago it was expected by the so called analysists that the conservative pro-Bush CDU/CSU of Merkel would get nearly 50% and build with the FDP a coalition.
Schroeders anti-Bush socialists SPD was down at 27%.
A day before the elections a 42% for CDU and 31% for SPD was expected.

Yesterday it was quite a surprise.

Merkel got only 35.2% - a real catastrophy for her. Especially considering the fact that she has no 50% even with the FDP.

Schroeder on the other hand managed to get 34.3% - no one had expected this.

The worse thing is that the communists got 8% - in the former East Germany they got 25% of the votes. And the communists refuse to build any coalitions.

So there are only the following combinations left:

SPD + CDU/CSU
unlikely, because Schroeder only wants to join a coalition if he remains Chancellor of Germany. On the other hand the conservatives already started to damage "Angie" Merkel, blaming her for the bad result.

CDU/CSU + FDP + green party
so called "Jamaica-Coalition"

(CDU has Black colour, FDP yellow, Green - surprise, surprise - green)
Will be extremly difficult because green and FDP have many problems together. Not to mention the greens and the CSU.

SPD + FDP + green party
same problem here

SPD + green, minority tolerated by the communists
also unlikely because Schroeder and the leader of the communists, Lafontaine, hate each other.

new elections

Lets see what will happen.

But again: Yesterday was an extreme surprise. Merkel was already celebrated as the next german chancellor ruling with a solid FDP+CDU+CSU alliance.

Krusher · « **Reply #4 on:** September 19, 2005, 09:13:23 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by babek-
Its a very complicated political situation in germany now.

I have always wanted a 3rd party in America, a viable alternative to the status quo. Watching Germany, Israel, Japan and other multi party systems makes it look like we have it pretty good.

BTW Babek, I noticed you made refrence to Merkel's part as "pro-Bush" I guess it is a given Shroders is Anti-Bush afterall its whats got him this far isn't it ?

Nilsen · « **Reply #5 on:** September 19, 2005, 09:30:52 AM »

We have a multi-party system and it works great. So does Sweden i belive. Not sure about Finland tho.

The "mess" in Germany now is healthy. It means that even smaller parties has a say in politics.

Krusher · « **Reply #6 on:** September 19, 2005, 09:35:41 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by Nilsen
We have a multi-party system and it works great. So does Sweden i belive. Not sure about Finland tho.

The "mess" in Germany now is healthy. It means that even smaller parties has a say in politics.

From everything I have read, it doen't look too healthy for their economy. Whoever gets the job is going to have some heavy lifting to do and it would be easier if you had some muscle to lift with.

babek- · « **Reply #7 on:** September 19, 2005, 09:52:38 AM »

@Krusher
A 3rd party is OK - but we have a 4th and a 5th. One of them communists which are not considered a reliable partner for the other german parties.

And now there is the problem: Because many leaders of all these parties refuse to build a coalition with one or more of the others in the 1st time of german after-WW2-history there is no coalition which has 50%majority in the Bundestag.

Schroeder yesterday officially refused to accept any coalition-discussion with his SPD if he will not remain Chancellor.
So a CDU/SPD coalition is not possible as long as Schroeder or Merkel are there.

And the only option for the Merkel to build a majority would be a colaition with the greens and the FDP - which is estremely difficult.

Just some few examples:
The CDU dont want, that Turkey becomes a member of European Community - the green wants this.
The CDU wants to restart german civil nuclear plants - the greens refuse any discussions on this topic and were responsible that the nuclear plants in germany have been shut down/ are shut down.
The Greens want that their Mr. Fischer remain german foreign minister - the FDP also want this position for one of their members.
And so on...

So its now damn bad - as long as Merkel and Schroeder remain the leaders of the biggest parties they cant build a CDU/SPD coalition.
The SPD is now totally dependant to Schroeder, so its unlikely that he will deposed. And one thing is sure: Schroeder created a real miracle by bringing all these votes with his charismatic TV-discussion-shows. No one has expected such a result - we were yesterday totally surprised.

On the other hand Merkel is now in a weak position. There are many CDU leaders who dream to become chancellor of their own.

And Schroeder used again the "Bush-card" in his political game. He already won the election of 2002 by refusing to send german troops or to support in any way the so called "Iraq-adventure of Bush" while Merkel was travelling to the USA - assuring Bush that she would have done so.

And now again in this elections Schroeder has officially told the german people that Germany wouldnt join a possible war against Iran. Merkel - trying to avoid the mistake of 2002 - also agreed in this point after a few days - but it was too late. Again Schroeder got more votes by using this Anti-Bush-topic.

@Nilsen: I cant see any healthy for Germany if there will be an unstable 3-party-coalition and it doesnt matter if one of the parties is the SPD under chancellor Schroeder or the CDU of Chancellor Merkel.

Krusher · « **Reply #8 on:** September 19, 2005, 10:02:54 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by babek-
[B
@Nilsen: I cant see any healthy for Germany if there will be an unstable 3-party-coalition and it doesnt matter if one of the parties is the SPD under chancellor Schroeder or the CDU of Chancellor Merkel. [/B]

Thanks for the detailed reply.

If the goverment turns out to be too weak to acomplish what is needed to move the country forward, is there any way within the system to call for a new election?

Ripsnort · « **Reply #9 on:** September 19, 2005, 10:24:21 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by babek-
Its a very complicated political situation in germany now.

Only few weeks ago it was expected by the so called analysists that the conservative pro-Bush CDU/CSU of Merkel would get nearly 50% and build with the FDP a coalition.
Schroeders anti-Bush socialists SPD was down at 27%.
A day before the elections a 42% for CDU and 31% for SPD was expected.

Yesterday it was quite a surprise.

Merkel got only 35.2% - a real catastrophy for her. Especially considering the fact that she has no 50% even with the FDP.

Schroeder on the other hand managed to get 34.3% - no one had expected this.

The worse thing is that the communists got 8% - in the former East Germany they got 25% of the votes. And the communists refuse to build any coalitions.

So there are only the following combinations left:

SPD + CDU/CSU
unlikely, because Schroeder only wants to join a coalition if he remains Chancellor of Germany. On the other hand the conservatives already started to damage "Angie" Merkel, blaming her for the bad result.

CDU/CSU + FDP + green party
so called "Jamaica-Coalition" (CDU has Black colour, FDP yellow, Green - surprise, surprise - green)
Will be extremly difficult because green and FDP have many problems together. Not to mention the greens and the CSU.

SPD + FDP + green party
same problem here

SPD + green, minority tolerated by the communists
also unlikely because Schroeder and the leader of the communists, Lafontaine, hate each other.

new elections

Lets see what will happen.

But again: Yesterday was an extreme surprise. Merkel was already celebrated as the next german chancellor ruling with a solid FDP+CDU+CSU alliance.

Babek, quick question: Why are candidates linked as "Pro-Bush/Anti-Bush" in their elections? We never associate our elections with "Pro-German Chancellor", etc.

mora · « **Reply #10 on:** September 19, 2005, 10:32:17 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by Nilsen
We have a multi-party system and it works great. So does Sweden i belive. Not sure about Finland tho.

I dunno about Norway, but at least Sweden seems to be a discusting socialist nanny state with even more PC than in the US, which seems to dictate all politics(no offence Swedes, thats just my peception).

Finland is not as bad PC-wise(yet!), but all the parties try to be copycats of each other. No one wants to stand out, and if you suggest anything but welfare state politics(Helluva taxes, everyone equally poor!) you're committing a political suicide. Doesn't really matter which party is in charge, they just cater different special interest groups. Other than that there's not much difference between the parties. Even the rightist National Coalition Party, which is pretty liberal when it comes to economics, is marketing itself with the welfare state concept.

Personally I allways vote NCP just for balance, even though they're way too conservative for my taste. It's just the least bad option. I could also vote for the Liberal Party(libertarian) but so far the've got no MP's and it's likely to be that way in the future.

Nilsen · « **Reply #11 on:** September 19, 2005, 10:54:27 AM »

Cant speak for Germany i guess..

Perfect for Norway, i assumed it would work in Germany too... sorry

babek- · « **Reply #12 on:** September 19, 2005, 10:55:06 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by Ripsnort
Babek, quick question: Why are candidates linked as "Pro-Bush/Anti-Bush" in their elections? We never associate our elections with "Pro-German Chancellor", etc.

Because it already worked in the 2002-elections.

Schroeder had no chance to win this election, when Bush attacked Iraq and Schroeder used his chance by refusing openly any support to this operation.
The CDU/CSU supported the position of Bush.

And because the majority of the german people were strictly against the Bush-Iraq-policy Schroeder could win the election in 2002.

He tried the same trick in this elections - and although Merkel also said that under her chancellorship no german soldier would be send to Iraq or Iran the people obviously didnt believe her. The SPD-propaganda also was effective by showing Merkel as a pro-Bush-politician who would sacrifice german soldiers only to get to power.

Its really strange - but it worked again.

We are living in a time where political programs are no longer important but the better show-man and propaganda.

And its a fact that many germans dont like Bush and his war-politic. So you can really get many votes in Germany by taking an anti-Bush-position. Schroeder did it now 2 times.

Nilsen · « **Reply #13 on:** September 19, 2005, 11:06:19 AM »

I guess our Labour party got afew votes for promising to pull out the few guys we have in Iraq too. They are going home soon i think.

Ripsnort · « **Reply #14 on:** September 19, 2005, 11:54:27 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by babek-
Because it already worked in the 2002-elections.

Schroeder had no chance to win this election, when Bush attacked Iraq and Schroeder used his chance by refusing openly any support to this operation.
The CDU/CSU supported the position of Bush.

And because the majority of the german people were strictly against the Bush-Iraq-policy Schroeder could win the election in 2002.

He tried the same trick in this elections - and although Merkel also said that under her chancellorship no german soldier would be send to Iraq or Iran the people obviously didnt believe her. The SPD-propaganda also was effective by showing Merkel as a pro-Bush-politician who would sacrifice german soldiers only to get to power.

Its really strange - but it worked again.

We are living in a time where political programs are no longer important but the better show-man and propaganda.

And its a fact that many germans dont like Bush and his war-politic. So you can really get many votes in Germany by taking an anti-Bush-position. Schroeder did it now 2 times.

Ah, Gotcha. Thanks for the explanation.