Author Topic: Climate Change in Europe  (Read 763 times)

Offline Yeager

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Climate Change in Europe
« on: January 10, 2006, 01:32:50 PM »
ruh roh....

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsarticle.aspx?type=scienceNews&storyid=2006-01-10T123353Z_01_EIC045151_RTRUKOC_0_US-ENVIRONMENT-EUROPE-DROUGHT.xml&rpc=22

Is global climate change really happening?

and....

If it IS happening, is it happening BECAUSE of the human impact on nature?
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Offline MrRiplEy[H]

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« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2006, 01:46:18 PM »
Coincidentally the magnetic north of the globe has shifted a few kilometers also. Anyone happend to know the effects of magnetism on global weather patterns?
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Offline Ripsnort

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« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2006, 01:47:30 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by MrRiplEy[H]
Coincidentally the magnetic north of the globe has shifted a few kilometers also. Anyone happend to know the effects of magnetism on global weather patterns?
Actually, it has been shifting, and has shifted several times in the past couple hundred years from what I read...
« Last Edit: January 10, 2006, 01:50:19 PM by Ripsnort »

Offline Yeager

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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2006, 01:49:41 PM »
The next big shift in the political  powerbase of the US is going to those that strongly endorse clean fuel and a gradual and certain reduction in the dependancy of this countries economy on foriegn sources of fossil fuel.

Imagine a world where the middle east is no longer valued as a source of energy.
"If someone flips you the bird and you don't know it, does it still count?" - SLIMpkns

Offline Gh0stFT

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« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2006, 02:08:32 PM »
Yeager, wrong topic, it should be somethining along this:"water shortages haunt Europe"...
because a real climate change would affect us all, dont you think?
And i dont see anything wrong with that article, they speak mainly about the
 deadly forest fires the last years, and i saw alot the last years happening  in the US too.
The statement below is true.
The statement above is false.

Offline Redwing

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« Reply #5 on: January 10, 2006, 02:31:17 PM »
Fact: earth's magnetic poles have shifted and inversed quite often in the past and will continue to do so.
Environmental impacts of an upcoming inversion can't be predicted, earth is just way too complex for scientific modelling of an event of such enormous scale.
An inversion would most likely result in increased solar wind exposure for a couple hundred years. That for sure wouldn't be great, even if you leave all other possible consequences out of consideration, but since we can't do anything about it... we'll probably just have to try to adapt to whatever happens.

Climate changes have also happened in the past and will also continue to do so, irregardless of our efforts to boost it or put it to a stop. It's a fact that the current increase in average temperature is pretty much unparalleled in earth's history if you exclude "special" events like gigantic volcanic eruptions or asteroid impacts.
We live in an era of warming (for several reasons, including cyclic sun parameters that definately aren't human made) and we're probably doing our share in making the trend worse to some extent, but the thought of mankind singlehandedly changing earth's climate is just bizarre.

We like to think we're in charge of our environment, just because we fought our way up the food chain and invented the atomic bomb and sliced bread. In the same way a lot of people seem to think we could actually take care of our planet while in the end and on the big scale.. we just cannot.

If the yellowstone caldera blows up tomorrow it would have zilch to do with me or you burning fossil fuels or burying atomic waste in a salt mine and still mankind would probably have a hard time recovering from the event.
So it all boils down to: climate changes in europe, yeah, probably. But instead of blaming ourselves for things we can't change or reverse anyway we should just shut up and adapt. We've proven to be good at it.

Offline lazs2

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« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2006, 02:35:09 PM »
so are you saying that it is too early to build a statue of the latest global warming scientist and form a cult of worship?

Or even give the crook a grant?

lazs

Offline midnight Target

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« Reply #7 on: January 10, 2006, 02:44:59 PM »
Oh sure laugh now... but when that -150 degree hurricane hits and you are all running for Mexico, don't say that I didn't warn ya!

Offline Redwing

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« Reply #8 on: January 10, 2006, 02:52:14 PM »
Pretty much. With some scientists there's a definate trend towards drastically exaggerating possible consequences of climate changes to aquire more funding. Easy to understand actually. A government official with zero knowledge of the subject can be talked into bigger funding more easily if you predict doomsday in 5 years instead of some obscure "sometime in the next 10,000 years this and that will probably happen" scenario.

The latter one would be scientifically correct, the first one means cashflow.

Offline lasersailor184

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« Reply #9 on: January 10, 2006, 02:54:43 PM »
Quote
It's a fact that the current increase in average temperature is pretty much unparalleled in earth's history if you exclude "special" events like gigantic volcanic eruptions or asteroid impacts.
We live in an era of warming (for several reasons, including cyclic sun parameters that definately aren't human made) and we're probably doing our share in making the trend worse to some extent, but the thought of mankind singlehandedly changing earth's climate is just bizarre.


Anyone else find it ironic that some people tend to throw the phrase "It's a fact" around whenever they feel like it?


The fact of the matter is that currently the temperature has been going up.  Some people are freaking out about Global Warming.

The fact of the matter is that 40 years ago the temperature was going down.  Some people were freaking out about Global Cooling.
Punishr - N.D.M. Back in the air.
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Offline Redwing

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« Reply #10 on: January 10, 2006, 03:10:05 PM »
Lasersailor.. read up on milankovitch cycles (eccentricity, precession and axial tilt), ice core isotope analysis methods for paleoclimatic reconstruction, paleomagnetic modelling and average ocean salinity and it's impact on oceanic currents which do affect climates (gulfstream, for example)
And don't consider Reuters or CNN online to be scientific sources, because they're not.

You see, I'd probably be last person to give up his car or anything else because some environmentalist wacko said so.. but some things in earth sciences can be considered facts. Warming and cooling trends are among them. These trends are in the scale of 10,000s of years, not 20 or 50 years. There may be peaks in both directions, which is what most of the current hype is all about. But the current general direction is UP, because earth will get closer to the sun for a couple ten thousand years.

Offline eagl

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« Reply #11 on: January 10, 2006, 03:24:36 PM »
NASA has also recently noted that even Mars is undergoing a warming period.  I guess took only one year for those solar rovers to destroy the whole planet!

Seriously, the question isn't whether the Earth is undergoing a warming cycle.  The question is if human activity is making it worse.  Some people even theorize that based on geological evidence, the Earth *should* be approaching an ice age right about now, and industrial activity is the only thing keeping us from freezing.

There are some "facts" that the whackos on both sides of the argument should think about though...

First, the last 200 or so years have been extremely moderate.  We have firm historical records of a time when it was much much colder (ice so thick on the Thames river that they could hold a winter market and festival on the river), and records of a time when there was a warm agriculture-friendly climate on Greenland and Iceland.

We know that there should be swings in temperature, but we're not putting the research into important areas.  First, we need to pin down rates of change and the actual trends a lot better than we can now.  That means investment in sensing technology and raw analysis.  Instead, they've dipped a thermometer into the water for a couple of years and declared that the earth is about to die because of freon.  That's a pretty damn big step IMO.  Second, we ought to do a little research on how we're going to adapt to the changes.  Run some what-if scenarios, and see where we need to put government measure in place to minimize the effects.  We already know that the earth is warming and probably will continue to do so regardless of what we humans do, so we probably ought to prepare for the effects.  The Katrina aftermath is a prime example of where we're falling down on these efforts.  It was postulated decades ago that global warming would probably cause more violent storms, yet we haven't engineered more robust storm defenses in our coastal areas.  Why not?  Because they're too busy bickering over what's causing the global warming before they've even characterized the effects to any degree of accuracy or completeness.

The people who want "something done" have personal agendas and they're using the global warming threat to force through things that they want anyhow.  They would be just as well off spending time convincing the govt to take early measures to deal with the inevitable problems that will come about through natural cycles.  The other non-obvious measures can wait until we know what we're really trying to accomplish.  I say "non-obvious" because some things such as reducing soot emissions, ought to be done anyhow 'cause soot and other pollution in the air is unhealthy.  But to force through massive and expensive changes that may or may not actually DO anything, ought to wait until the research is done.
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Offline Redwing

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« Reply #12 on: January 10, 2006, 03:43:12 PM »
Yep, correct. That's what I meant when I said serious research.

Regarding the geological record, we're not even living in a moderate global climate, we're in a generally cold climate compared to earth's history.
In the mid cretacious (around 100 million years past) average temperature in the subpolar regions of earth was above 20 degrees C. Today it's 0 degrees.
Ocean level was 200 meters higher. There have been even cooler periods, but not much cooler than today.

What most people can't comprehend are the enormous time scales in which earth changes. 10, 20, 50, 200 years will never give a true indication of general global warming or cooling trends.
We could measure record summers every year the next 10 decades and in the geological record (in case someone looked at it in a million years) it wouldn't be more than a little peak on a bigger trend.

The question remains, are we making things worse on our current little peak? Probably, but it can't be answered with certainity. Even if it could and we did, could we do something about it without having to radically change our way of living? Probably not.

Offline eagl

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« Reply #13 on: January 10, 2006, 04:17:22 PM »
One thing we probably ought to be doing is farming the crap out of old seabeds now, and figuring out where we'll be farming when they're under water in a couple hundred years.  All it would take is a few dozen ft sea level rise and maybe an earthquake or two, and we'd lose a lot of cropland just in Calif.
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Offline *NDM*JohnnyX

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« Reply #14 on: January 10, 2006, 04:19:09 PM »
And then the sun collapsed into a brown dwarf and we all froze.