Originally posted by DREDIOCK
...that being said Being in Jersey Im pretty familiour with Rudy.
His opinion polls may have been down but he managed to turn NYC around.
Quite right. He did some things wrong, but he did a heck of a lot of things right.
Nobody would deny that he did a brilliant job of cleaning NYC up. The main beef with him became that he started going too far - which is a small quibble when comparing the pre-Giuliani NYC to the post-Giuliani NYC. The guy was tireless.... and he was everywhere you looked. Easily the most active and visible local politician I've ever seen. I sure did like him.
But he couldn't beat Hillary in 2000 for an open Senate seat... (he was getting hammered) and dropped out.
Anyways..... It's easy to overlook the primaries when talking about 2008. That - or take them for granted. And I don't think that either Hillary or Giuliani will be able to scrape by them.
In Hillary's case, she'll have the most money... but she will be the pro-war establishment Democrat when, in 2008, people will want anything
but an establishment
anything in office. Not only that, but after the disaster that is eight years of the Republican administration, the Democrats will just want to win.
When the survival of the nation/constitution is at stake (and this already
is the predominant sentiment), I don't think anyone is going to feel cozy enough to gamble on a first woman President. In better times, perhaps. Not in 2008. Sorry Hillary.
In Giuliani's case, I don't think he has a chance. The Republican party has done such a good job of relying on the far right wing of their base that the Republican candidate now simply
must appeal to these people in order for any chance of success in the primaries. There's no way around it, and Giuliani's stances on abortion and gays won't get him past this first hurdle.
He
has been attempting to make nice with these people lately, but McCain has been doing a much better job at that.
But aint that the rub....
Both of these men look like they want to vomit through their plastered smiles every time they get asked about having to "speak" to their base. Because the more they're forced to appeal to their base during the primary, the more they'll alienate the centrists during the general. Yet, they gotta get through the primary 1st.
This sure as hell aint yer daddy's Republican party no more..... but that's another thread.
Anyways.... I wouldn't buy the line on Hillary in '08. That's just being lazy.
Here's who to watch for:
Mark Warner
Russ Feingold
Wesley Clark
Bill Richardson
Evan Bayh
John Edwards
Tom Vilsack
and maybe?..... Gore
My bet is a fight between Warner and Feingold, with Clark a close 3rd. If Gore enters the race all bets are off.
