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Author Topic: Calculating the Odds of Survival  (Read 1018 times)

Offline shamroc

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Calculating the Odds of Survival
« on: October 03, 2007, 06:51:12 PM »
Awhile back I was flying in the MA and I came upon about 5-6 friendlies ganging up against a lone enemy.

There were other friendlies milling around watching, and one of them  made a comment along the lines of :

"Wow - poor guy - that's 6 to 1 odds".

I basically thought to myself ? "6 to 1 ?!?! Try like 64 to 1 at best pal!"

Anyways, here's my reasoning:

A single fight (let's assume to the finish) has basically two outcomes.  Win or Lose.

2 possible outcomes - hence 2 to 1 odds.

Using basic math, it follows that:

1 vs 2 = 2 x 2                 = 4 to 1 odds
1 vs 3 = 2 x 2 x 2           = 8 to 1 odds
1 vs 4 = 2 x 2 x 2 x 2           = 16 to 1 odds
1 vs 5 = 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2     = 32 to 1 odds
1 vs 6 = 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2  = 64 to 1 odds
...and so on...

The above also assumes EQUAL skill, luck, advantage and aircraft.  More importantly, it assumes that all the bad guys wait their turn and attack you one after the other (each attack being an isolated fight to the finish).

Given that in any good gangbang, everyone attacks at the same time, I was just wondering (given that I'm not that great at that deep-thinking-n-brain stuff), if anyone had a more realistic (and sound) way to calculate the odds of surviving a gangbang.

Shamroc
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Offline Latrobe

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Calculating the Odds of Survival
« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2007, 08:36:46 PM »
I have my own calculations.

Me + 1 Enemy = Fun fight
Me + 2 Enemy = Funner Fight
Me + 3 Enemy = Uh oh
Me + 4 Enemy = Where'd everyone go? (but I won 1 of these fights once :D )
Me + 5 or more Enemy = RUN! RUN AWAY!!!

:D

That's how I calculate survival
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Offline JB73

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Calculating the Odds of Survival
« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2007, 08:44:48 PM »
math is for nerds and HiTech
















:D :p
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I don't know what to put here yet.

storch

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for what it's worth
« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2007, 08:52:21 PM »
who cares?  if you continually do that you improve in the area that is important namely surviving a turn fight.  measure your progress in the seconds that you last and the number that you take with you before upping a new cartoon plane.  just fight, it's a game.
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Offline Citabria

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Calculating the Odds of Survival
« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2007, 08:59:47 PM »
ok tell me the odds making 350 kills in one tour without dying, bailing or getting captured?

then tell me the odds of getting 101 kills, 122 kills and 152 kills and then dying at the start of a tour :D
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Offline NoBaddy

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Calculating the Odds of Survival
« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2007, 09:29:34 PM »
Someone has waaaaay too much time on his hands.
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Offline dedalos

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Re: for what it's worth
« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2007, 10:34:54 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by storch
who cares?  if you continually do that you improve in the area that is important namely surviving a turn fight.  measure your progress in the seconds that you last and the number that you take with you before upping a new cartoon plane.  just fight, it's a game.


Very true.  i noticed you were up to 4 seconds the other night :rofl  bhaaaahahahahahaha
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storch

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Re: Re: for what it's worth
« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2007, 10:57:23 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by dedalos
Very true.  i noticed you were up to 4 seconds the other night :rofl  bhaaaahahahahahaha
yup against two pretty good players.  I noticed it took me .25 seconds to kill you when it was reversed. :rofl  change your handle to icaros you crash better than you fly. :D
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Offline SkyRock

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Calculating the Odds of Survival
« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2007, 12:46:02 AM »
odds that my comp locks up.......once every 1.8 hours.:(
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Offline Murdr

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Calculating the Odds of Survival
« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2007, 12:56:13 AM »
All I can say is that winning a 5 on 1 is priceless :aok
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Offline trigger2

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Re: Calculating the Odds of Survival
« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2007, 01:37:43 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by shamroc
Awhile back I was flying in the MA and I came upon about 5-6 friendlies ganging up against a lone enemy.

There were other friendlies milling around watching, and one of them  made a comment along the lines of :

"Wow - poor guy - that's 6 to 1 odds".

I basically thought to myself ? "6 to 1 ?!?! Try like 64 to 1 at best pal!"

Anyways, here's my reasoning:

A single fight (let's assume to the finish) has basically two outcomes.  Win or Lose.

2 possible outcomes - hence 2 to 1 odds.

Using basic math, it follows that:

1 vs 2 = 2 x 2                 = 4 to 1 odds
1 vs 3 = 2 x 2 x 2           = 8 to 1 odds
1 vs 4 = 2 x 2 x 2 x 2           = 16 to 1 odds
1 vs 5 = 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2     = 32 to 1 odds
1 vs 6 = 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 2  = 64 to 1 odds
...and so on...

The above also assumes EQUAL skill, luck, advantage and aircraft.  More importantly, it assumes that all the bad guys wait their turn and attack you one after the other (each attack being an isolated fight to the finish).

Given that in any good gangbang, everyone attacks at the same time, I was just wondering (given that I'm not that great at that deep-thinking-n-brain stuff), if anyone had a more realistic (and sound) way to calculate the odds of surviving a gangbang.

Shamroc


I don't take time to asess the odds like that i see it like latrobe
1-2 i'll take on, 3 i'll fight if i gotta, 4 shoot down as many as i can, 5+ DIVE AND RUN

I look at my skills in the plane i'm in, compared to the other planes capabilities (it's pretty easy seeing as how i'm usually in a corsair or p47-25
it's pretty obvious a spitty can outturn a p47 at 2k :P) and that's how i figure my "odds of survival"
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Offline Sloehand

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Calculating the Odds of Survival
« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2007, 01:38:43 AM »
Interesting, but you're talking about two different things.  The first one that the guy was refering to was the 'numerical' odds the guy was facing, which was 6 to 1.

What you're refering to is the odds of probability of the 'outcome' of facing 6 to 1 odds.

Two completely different, though not unrelated, things.
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Offline Wolfala

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Calculating the Odds of Survival
« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2007, 03:57:55 AM »
I have a simple formula.

The odds of surviving a gang bang unscathed are inversely proportional to the number of Peter North's flying around and ho'n away.

Odds go way down from that vantage - since a HO and its variants mostly go from 1 guy fires and the other guy ducks and prays for a 1 pass and haul bellybutton out of the area.
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Offline Ghosth

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Calculating the Odds of Survival
« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2007, 08:01:54 AM »
Wrong question, your trying to calculate probability of survival.

What you should be figuring out is how to measure fun.

1 on 1 no interruptions, fairly even planes,  fight comes down to pilot skill = 100 fun.

1 vs 2 it got pretty hairy, but thanks to a alt advantage you prevailed = 200 fun.


More than 2 in your airspace at any given time and you have to calculate fun in SECONDS. So at 1 fun per second per enemy plane, if you stay alive in a 6 on 1 for 2 min. 2 min = 120 seconds, x 6 = 720 fun. Now you can add modifiers for planes if you really want to go that far.

Add a 50 fun bonus for each enemy death you cause. Subtract 50 when your imminent demise finally happens. As you see its possible to rack up some pretty serious FUN here folks! And really, isn't that what this whole thing is all about?

Grin
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Offline Latrobe

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Calculating the Odds of Survival
« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2007, 08:13:07 AM »
We should have Fun Points to pay for planes. ;)
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