Germany-USSR, the ultimate what-if

[SirLoin]

The only way Hitler could have defeated USSR is by surprise attack(which they almost did)..If England have come to terms with Germany in 1940,USSR would have known what was coming & mobilized near it's borders...It would have been a standoff phony war with perhaps the USSR launching on Hitler as early as 1942.

[lasersailor184]

Originally posted by Elfie
So many questions and most of them could have whole threads devoted to each one.

I'll just go with the last paragraph.

No, the US doesn't build a nuke without a war to drive their efforts. Without a war, there just isn't a need to build a nuke. Germany does build one and uses it against the Soviets to force their surrender. Germany and Japan become the two military Superpowers in the postwar era.

Don't forget that without a war, America would still be stuck in a depression.

Without a war, FDR would have screwed this country into the ground even worse then he already had.

[Angus]

I do have the data for how much materials the USSR got through the western allies. It was actually quite staggering.
I also have numbers about how much of the USSR resources such as oil and wheat fell into German hands. Also quite impressive.
As for Mussolini, he went to the same channel as some others....thinking that the Germans had the Brits in the bag. Brits in bag = let's go grab.
Those who took that conclusion were the  Italians, and then the Japanese.
(Japan was NOT after U.S's resources, but since the USA and UK were getting into the same boat, the U.S. Navy would have to be neutralized for Japan to have their peace to overtake the weakened UK's resources in the far east)
The Italians attacked the French when France was about to fall. They took a tiny part in the BoB. Then, beliving that Britain was on the knees, they went for some colonies in N-Africa. Same to the Balkans. In all cases, Germany had to make a rush to fix things. And it was at times, costly.
The Japanese, pressed by the U.S. embargo, either had to bow, or go for resources. They decided to go for the UK's troubled colonies rather than their former foe, the USSR. UK was in trouble, and their colonies close and rich of necessary materials. But the USA would have to be "castrated" in order fot the Japanese to gain some proper hold. So basically, Japan chose the UK & USA instead of the USSR because the UK was in trouble already with Japan's ally.
Bottom line, UK's existance as an enemy of the German REICH, changed the whole decision-making of the Italians and the Japanese.
As for the USSR, I remind you guys that Molotov was also stating his demands for the setup if the UK would go to it's knees.....he wanted access to the med and atlantic as well as through the Suez....from the black sea.
So in short, USSR, Germany, Italy and Japan were all drooling over the gains of a broken British empire....

[lasersailor184]

No.  If you want (as a favor) I can cite to you the passages that explains the reason that the Japanese attacked America over Russia as I mentioned before.

[Angus]

Originally posted by SirLoin
The only way Hitler could have defeated USSR is by surprise attack(which they almost did)..If England have come to terms with Germany in 1940,USSR would have known what was coming & mobilized near it's borders...It would have been a standoff phony war with perhaps the USSR launching on Hitler as early as 1942.

Hitler had a deal with Stalin, and did his utmopst for the bluff.
Actually, the Balkan war was quite difficult for Hitler in this regard, since it could be looked at as moving closer to the south-eastern borders of the USSR.
Never the less, Stalin ignored the threat of the Germans, and looked at the westerners as the future foe. He even completely discarded the UK's warnings of a German attack, forwarded to him from the British ambassador.
Had Britain submitted to a truce with the Germans, or subdued to them, there would have been an environment that Molotov was expecting, since he already had his claims for the behalf of the USSR prepared for the Germans, and promptly promoted them.
So, I think it would not have been much of a difference  in the reality of the USSR had the UK made a non-agression pact. The USSR was hoping for the UK to bow or loose and had their act ready for picking up the goods....

[Angus]

Originally posted by lasersailor184
No.  If you want (as a favor) I can cite to you the passages that explains the reason that the Japanese attacked America over Russia as I mentioned before.

You mean the embargo?
Anyway, please do. In the meantime I can dig up some of my stuff on the subject.
Quite a story really....

[Elfie]

Don't forget that without a war, America would still be stuck in a depression.

Maybe, maybe not.....

If the US starts selling war materials to the Germans or Soviets, that could have kick started the US economy. Of course, that would depend on just how much crap we produced and sold.

If that doesn't happen, then the US probably does stay stuck in a depression, at least until FDR was voted out of office and someone else took over.

[Masherbrum]

Originally posted by Angus
Ahh, the Balkans. Well, it was a successful campaign for the Gerries, and they did not waste a lot of troops. Holding the balkans also helps with access to the Eastern front.
But of course, everything counts,- after all, Moscow almost fell.

Let's look at some facts to assist you.   Tito and the Balkans Campaign were deliberately staged by MI6 to stall the "then upcoming Barbarossa Campaign".    It was delayed 6 weeks and that first Winter brought about a Major flaw in the German Army/Luftwaffe.    

This would be the poor coordination and planning of the Logistics of such a massive Offensive.    Field Marshal Erhard Milch had to fly to Russia and sort out what "needed to be done and what needed to go where".    Shortly after he left, it uncoiled again.   A very subtle reason for the Germans having a hard time with the Russian Winter (besides improper clothing) was the constant jamming of the rifles.    The Germans were constantly cleaning their rifles, the problem was their gun oil would freeze.   The Russians had a simple additive to their gun oil that prevented jamming (basically freezing though) rifles.    They added Kerosene to their gun oil.  

Germany never had a snowballs chance to "win in Russia".     Not even close.

[lasersailor184]

Originally posted by Angus
You mean the embargo?
Anyway, please do. In the meantime I can dig up some of my stuff on the subject.
Quite a story really....

I think I said it in this post.  Anyway, the reason why Japan attacked the US instead of the Soviets was because the Soviets had planted agents in the Japanese government.

[Boroda]

Originally posted by SirLoin
The only way Hitler could have defeated USSR is by surprise attack(which they almost did)..If England have come to terms with Germany in 1940,USSR would have known what was coming & mobilized near it's borders...It would have been a standoff phony war with perhaps the USSR launching on Hitler as early as 1942.

Angus already mentioned naval power in another thread on this subject.

Without Hanko base complete and a full mine-artillery position a-la WWI USSR  couldn't prevent "allies" from entering Finnish Gulf. Building forts like Ino could take years, so until 1943 Leningrad was helpless against British navy. So was Black Sea.

OTOH with proper brave command Baltic dreadnoughts and some railway-based artillery could serve as good as forts at Northern side of Finnish Gulf, but Finns went back to old border quite fast.

I quoted Gabriel Gorogetsky here, he wrote that  on June 22nd Soviet command was sure that British navy entered Baltic Sea to attack. In June Baltic Fleet was acting according to pre-war plans, frantically trying to lay mines around Bornholm and in Dutch Straits.

[lasersailor184]

Originally posted by Elfie
Maybe, maybe not.....

If the US starts selling war materials to the Germans or Soviets, that could have kick started the US economy. Of course, that would depend on just how much crap we produced and sold.

If that doesn't happen, then the US probably does stay stuck in a depression, at least until FDR was voted out of office and someone else took over.

The power of economy behind a lend lease program is a tiny fraction of the power behind a war economy.



While it is easy to say that the great depression would have continued til FDR got voted out of office, I'm not sure I have enough faith in any period of Americans to pull the trigger.  Unfortunately, the results and expectations of the time show us not to expect anything of quality.


The people of the great depression were willing to sacrifice a long term result for a short term good feeling.  It's not like they traded a "Friends with Benefits" for a single BJ.  They traded what could have been a FWB for a BJ without the happy ending.

[Angus]

Originally posted by Masherbrum
Let's look at some facts to assist you.   Tito and the Balkans Campaign were deliberately staged by MI6 to stall the "then upcoming Barbarossa Campaign".    It was delayed 6 weeks and that first Winter brought about a Major flaw in the German Army/Luftwaffe.    

This would be the poor coordination and planning of the Logistics of such a massive Offensive.    Field Marshal Erhard Milch had to fly to Russia and sort out what "needed to be done and what needed to go where".    Shortly after he left, it uncoiled again.   A very subtle reason for the Germans having a hard time with the Russian Winter (besides improper clothing) was the constant jamming of the rifles.    The Germans were constantly cleaning their rifles, the problem was their gun oil would freeze.   The Russians had a simple additive to their gun oil that prevented jamming (basically freezing though) rifles.    They added Kerosene to their gun oil.  

Germany never had a snowballs chance to "win in Russia".     Not even close.

Never seen anything about the MI6 staging the Balcans campaign, which BTW was a disaster for the British.
As for the invasion delay, it was on the northern side partially due to late spring thaws. However that would not have counted for a southern front.
The Germans had a problem with the winter indeed, particularly because they did not plan on fighting in the winter at all! It was not just the rifles, - it was engines, coolants, oil, fuel, tracks, aircraft, everything.
Yet, a year later, the deal was not sorted on the eastern front, - the doomsday bell was sounding though, for Germany was in war against the USA as well as loosing rapind ground and resources in the med.
And they came close to winning the USSR....it was a matter of miles in some cases, and cities like Moscow only held by a few divisions....

[Angus]

Originally posted by Boroda
Angus already mentioned naval power in another thread on this subject.

Without Hanko base complete and a full mine-artillery position a-la WWI USSR  couldn't prevent "allies" from entering Finnish Gulf. Building forts like Ino could take years, so until 1943 Leningrad was helpless against British navy. So was Black Sea.

OTOH with proper brave command Baltic dreadnoughts and some railway-based artillery could serve as good as forts at Northern side of Finnish Gulf, but Finns went back to old border quite fast.

I quoted Gabriel Gorogetsky here, he wrote that  on June 22nd Soviet command was sure that British navy entered Baltic Sea to attack. In June Baltic Fleet was acting according to pre-war plans, frantically trying to lay mines around Bornholm and in Dutch Straits.

Boroda, - in my study I regard the UK as absolutely neutral and lifting the naval embargo on the Axis. So the USSR would not have the UK as a foe, nor as an ally. (After all, untill Barbarossa, the Germans and the USSR were allies of a sort and the USSR was supplying Germany with war materials which were applied to fight the British, so I bet on a totally icy-cold status)

Nothing the USSR could have mustered would have stood a chance against the RN anyway, nor the combined Kriegsmarine and the Italian navy, both with several battlewagons, - and then there was some stuff from the french as well....even after Dakar. (The RN sank French Battleships so they would not work for the Germans)

So my naval teaser goes to the question of both the Northern front (Baltic and even the Arctic) as well as a southern supply/invasion route through the Turkish straits all the way to Crimea and the opening of the Don and Kuban.
A good supply route assisted with proper gunpower would IMHO have been disastrous to  the Crimea.  Germans having foothold in Ukraine in June 1941 already while starting a heavy assault on the northern line....baaaaad.

[Masherbrum]

Originally posted by Angus
Never seen anything about the MI6 staging the Balcans campaign, which BTW was a disaster for the British.
As for the invasion delay, it was on the northern side partially due to late spring thaws. However that would not have counted for a southern front.
The Germans had a problem with the winter indeed, particularly because they did not plan on fighting in the winter at all! It was not just the rifles, - it was engines, coolants, oil, fuel, tracks, aircraft, everything.
Yet, a year later, the deal was not sorted on the eastern front, - the doomsday bell was sounding though, for Germany was in war against the USA as well as loosing rapind ground and resources in the med.
And they came close to winning the USSR....it was a matter of miles in some cases, and cities like Moscow only held by a few divisions....

As for MI6, read "A Man called Intrepid" by Sir William Stephenson.   The Balkans were merely a "distraction".    Good book.

[Angus]

I have the loss numbers for the Germans in the Balkan campaign. It is absoltely stunning how little they lost, however for the Italians, it was a disaster.
I'll try to bring them on along with other things. (Data)
Now, some German Generals do actually blaim the Balkans for slowing the beginning of Barbarossa, as well as swallowing up force.
While IMHO this is true, it's double edged, for holding the Balkans means a safer and easier route to the east.
I cannot see any British benefit of promoting a war there, nor any British benefit from the outcome.
BTW, the German losses at Crete only were really much more serious, and the force applied there (Elite Fallshirmjaeger) might have been at good use in the Barbarossa plot, as well as all the transports that got butchered over there.