WE ARE NOT IN A RECESSION

[Shamus]

Everything is still going fine, we have to have 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth before recession kicks in.

All of you Bush haters should just chill.

shamus

[sluggish]

<--manages a retail electronics store.  I have posted a sales gain each month this year over last years sales in Michigan (worst economy in the country).  We are not in a recession.

<--have fallen short 3k and 4k of sales goal for the months of Sept and Oct respectively.  We're in a recession.  If you lose in the golden quarter (and I will) there can be no doubt about a recession.

[kamilyun]

The US BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) had us at negative growth last quarter.  We very well could be in a recession, but will only know in a few more months.

In July when this thread started, we weren't.  But given the definition, you don't know until after it has been happening.

[Eagler]

Everything is still going fine, we have to have 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth before recession kicks in.

All of you Bush haters should just chill.

shamus

we are in a recession
but to blame bush for it is to give credit to slick in the mid 90's for the dot com bubble during its boom.
both are events from policies set in motion before the admin which happens to benefit or suffer from said policy has even been elected..

[Chalenge]

Yes Bush is to blame for recession just like CO2 is to blame for rising temperatures. 

The only problem with screaming 'the sky is falling' is eventually people will realize the sky is not going to fall and the screamers will lose their jobs not because the economy is bad but because they suck at their jobs. 

[Dragon]

Well the company I work for is having a record year (can't wait for our bonus checks  ) and there is always cold beer in my refrig.  Can't complain. 

[drdeathx]

Recession has to do with GDP. The exact definition is this:




A recession is defined to be a period of two quarters of negative GDP growth. Now lets define GDP!


GDP. The total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a given year, equal to total consumer, investment and government spending, plus the value of exports, minus the value of imports. The GDP report is released at 8:30 am EST on the last day of each quarter and reflects the previous quarter. Growth in GDP is what matters, and the U.S. GDP growth has historically averaged about 2.5-3% per year but with substantial deviations. Each initial GDP report will be revised twice before the final figure is settled upon: the "advance" report is followed by the "preliminary" report about a month later and a final report a month after that. Significant revisions to the advance number can cause additional ripples through the markets. The GDP numbers are reported in two forms: current dollar and constant dollar. Current dollar GDP is calculated using today's dollars and makes comparisons between time periods difficult because of the effects of inflation. Constant dollar GDP solves this problem by converting the current information into some standard era dollar, such as 1997 dollars. This process factors out the effects of inflation and allows easy comparisons between periods. It is important to differentiate Gross Domestic Product from Gross National Product (GNP). GDP includes only goods and services produced within the geographic boundaries of the U.S., regardless of the producer's nationality. GNP doesn't include goods and services produced by foreign producers, but does include goods and services produced by U.S. firms operating in foreign countries.

[drdeathx]

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT


 

[Curval]

Well the company I work for is having a record year (can't wait for our bonus checks  ) and there is always cold beer in my refrig.  Can't complain. 

Same here...except I'm not naive enough to ignore what is going on in the markets and financial sectors right now.

It doesn't matter what the text book definition of a recession is.  Back in July when this thread was started there was serious trouble brewing and placing ones fingers in ones ears and ignoring the problem didn't change the fact that we are now in a world of poo.

Where ya gonna bank that bonus check?  Will there be one next year or will the crisis catch up to your business?

Bear in mind that the knock-on effects from failures hasn't even begun.  Massive funds are currently refusing to redeem holdings and are trying to weather the storm.  f they go bust then many pensions and life savings will be at risk or simply lost.

It is a cluster-f out there right now and whether Bush is to blame is absolutely irrelevant at this stage.

[Dragon]

Same here...except I'm not naive enough to ignore what is going on in the markets and financial sectors right now.

It doesn't matter what the text book definition of a recession is.  Back in July when this thread was started there was serious trouble brewing and placing ones fingers in ones ears and ignoring the problem didn't change the fact that we are now in a world of poo.

Where ya gonna bank that bonus check?  Will there be one next year or will the crisis catch up to your business?

Bear in mind that the knock-on effects from failures hasn't even begun.  Massive funds are currently refusing to redeem holdings and are trying to weather the storm.  f they go bust then many pensions and life savings will be at risk or simply lost.

It is a cluster-f out there right now and whether Bush is to blame is absolutely irrelevant at this stage.

Agreed. I posted to lighten the mood a bit.  I deal with a small, local bank, that could be good or bad.  I've seen my 401 K loose 20% with no end in sight. I am a realist and do see more trouble ahead.  Might have to switch to cheaper beer. 

[Curval]

Small local banks have actually been a much better bet than the big boys, as long as you didn't have any cowboys in your finance department trading in credit dervatives.

Hope things continue to go well for ya.

[drdeathx]

If you listen to the political rhetoric some believe we are in a recession. Water is seeking its level for many wrong doings in the past. The financial crisis goes back to other administrations. Dems and Republicans. Not only have they been "Lax" at giving loans, many people have gotten loans with little or no money down. Banks have been bastardizing mortgages and selling them for the "almighty buck". These banks need to pay the price for buying the risk out of stupidity.

The automotive industry is also paying a high price. Your 401k's are heavily invested in many categories. Pharmaceuticals, medical and OIL. Detroit is so much in bed with politicians they never really developed technology to address the OIL situation until now. When OIL prices rose GM,FORD and CHRYSLER were in a "reactive" mode where Honda and Toyota already had Hybrid technology developed many years prior. Just like in the 70's, they were ahead of the game by miles. When the public reacted, they were ready. Detroit wasn't due to Political motivation and $. Also, every GM, FORD and CHRYSLER has $1500-$2000 in every car for the retiree' and benefit packages which gives a huge advantage to foreign automakers. Lets not forget Honda and Toyota have been making cars that last 200,000 miles plus for many years. Also, the American auto makers really do not have anything better than foreign automakers. The may have at best, equal products in a category or 2. Honda/Toyota outperform, have great style and are priced right. Why would I buy a GM, Ford or CHRYSLER when I can get a better car from Honda or Toyota. The New Hybrids from American automakers are almost $40k. If I am looking for Hybrid, a Prius is $22k. Understand the $40K is bigger and stylish but the $5k to $10K is a substantial difference from the same non hybrid car.

Jobs have left this country due to "Global Economy" which was fine when NAFTA was signed because the tec industry and our economy was great and there were many jobs available(with quick education). Some went back to school others migrated to different industries.One could easily find a programming job at 45k in this sector but the loss of jobs were not as great as recent past. When some lose there jobs due to whatever reason, there are not many jobs available in the 30k to 50k level. The unemployed only see service related jobs paying $8 to $12 and either do not want them or cannot afford to live on this income. We did not look to the future but looked to the present. The bottom line is availability to find jobs that one can support a family, mortgage, ect.

Stocks have been over inflated for years. Companies have lied and cheated in the past to get stock's up and this is no secret. This started leveling off years ago but are finally at the level they probably should be. Companies lied about projections and they finally make more realistic projections as there stocks will not fluctuate as much unless the surpass these projections.

Homes were over inflated. Seeing the economy was so good for so many years, property values rose at a minimum of 7% and sometimes as much as 15% a year. It was definitely a sellers market for a long time.

It's funny how much Oil has dropped. If OIL were over $100 a barrel we would be in serious trouble. The economy may get worse before it gets better but I think we have 6 months until we start seeing a turn.


THE DEFINITION OF RECESSION STAYS THE SAME. YOU CANNOT REDEFINE A WORD BECAUSE WE HAVE MADE MANY MISTAKES OVER A DECADE OR TWO

[Curval]

THE DEFINITION OF RECESSION STAYS THE SAME. YOU CANNOT REDEFINE A WORD BECAUSE WE HAVE MADE MANY MISTAKES OVER A DECADE OR TWO

Correct, but the only reason we aren't currently in a DEPRESSION right now is the government bailouts.

[DREDIOCK]

Recession has to do with GDP. The exact definition is this:




A recession is defined to be a period of two quarters of negative GDP growth. Now lets define GDP!


GDP. The total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a given year, equal to total consumer, investment and government spending, plus the value of exports, minus the value of imports. The GDP report is released at 8:30 am EST on the last day of each quarter and reflects the previous quarter. Growth in GDP is what matters, and the U.S. GDP growth has historically averaged about 2.5-3% per year but with substantial deviations. Each initial GDP report will be revised twice before the final figure is settled upon: the "advance" report is followed by the "preliminary" report about a month later and a final report a month after that. Significant revisions to the advance number can cause additional ripples through the markets. The GDP numbers are reported in two forms: current dollar and constant dollar. Current dollar GDP is calculated using today's dollars and makes comparisons between time periods difficult because of the effects of inflation. Constant dollar GDP solves this problem by converting the current information into some standard era dollar, such as 1997 dollars. This process factors out the effects of inflation and allows easy comparisons between periods. It is important to differentiate Gross Domestic Product from Gross National Product (GNP). GDP includes only goods and services produced within the geographic boundaries of the U.S., regardless of the producer's nationality. GNP doesn't include goods and services produced by foreign producers, but does include goods and services produced by U.S. firms operating in foreign countries.



(Image removed from quote.)

At this point.
Does it really matter what the hell we call it?

I said back when this thread was started it wasnt a recession but it felt like one.
Now it feels like an outright depression.

Even if it doesnt technically meet the definition of either.
And even if it never does.
I think they are going to invent a whole new word for this one.
I've seen the economy go bad a few times in my 47 years.
I cant say from a personal standpoint I've ever seen it worse.

[Mark Luper]

I paid $1.69 a gallon for gas today...I find that utterly amazing. Just think: when ghi made his trip back in July of this year what the gas prices were.

Mark