The Executive Ban? It's Gone! <sniker>

[bj229r]

Speculators are not the cause. That is a calculated campaign to deflect blame.

Oil prices are global, bj229f. Perhaps you might be a little US centric in your thinking?  I'll say again that it will not put more oil in the global supply. It will stay in the US and be only a tiny blip in global prices. Another thing I would caution is that you might be trying to frame this too much on internal US bickering, cough, politics.

Lol, thank you Mr Condescension! If global output is ~85 million a day, and several wells are opened up which add...2 million a day? Would be slightly over 2% increase, and we have already heard from Senator Schumer that if the Saudis pumped another 500 THOUSAND per day, the supply/demand crunch would end? (psstt....went down again today a small bit...that's 5 days in a row since Boosh ended the Executive part of the ban)--

NEW YORK (AP) - A stunning sell-off dragged oil prices to their biggest weekly drop ever and gas prices at the pump slipped by the more than they have at any point since February, giving consumers a rare breather in a year of record fuel prices.

The national average for a gallon of regular fell by the most since February, AAA data show, and could ease further in the days to come.

and did I say speculators are uniquely Amuurican? And I didn't say they CAUSE the high prices, they are rather a barometer. Static supply and growing demand are what they have noticed, even Paul Krugman acknowledges it.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/27/opinion/27krugman.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

 

[Elfie]

It is, but I don't think there is any one bio diesel that could be used as a replacment for the entire country. That's why I say NG is the best option, because we have enough to provide for the entire country's fuel needs assuming we didn't keep using it for producing energy for our power grids.

There are several variants of the bio-diesel, if just one of them takes off it could be a replacement for regular diesel across the entire country.

[Rolex]

You misunderstood, bj229r. I'm not interested in arguing or name calling.

[Nashwan]

If global output is ~85 million a day, and several wells are opened up which add...2 million a day?

Where on earth do you get the 2 million figure from?

The EIA estimates ANWR production would peak at 780,000 barrels a day, and production in the currently off limits parts of the outer continental shelf at about 200,000 barrels a day. That's a bit less than 1 million barrels a day, production won't start for about 10 years, and won't hit those peaks until 20 years from now.

As to prizes for much more efficient solar panels, cheap ethanol etc, there are already multi billion dollar prizes on offer, via the patent system. If you can make ethanol for $75 a barrel you can sell all you can make. If you produce a solar panel that produces electricity for less, there are a lot of manufacturers waiting to licence your technology, and millions of people who want to put it on their roof.

Prizes work well in fields where there is little commercial potential for the end product, like cheap spacecraft. They are redundant in fields where success brings multi billion dollar rewards.

[WWhiskey]

It is, but I don't think there is any one bio diesel that could be used as a replacement for the entire country. That's why I say NG is the best option, because we have enough to provide for the entire country's fuel needs assuming we didn't keep using it for producing energy for our power grids.

 i get 10% bio diesel at pilot truck stops now!
i don't think that NG is going to work in the big trucks for a long time,, when you convert a diesel engine to ng you lose about 60% of its HP! and your not going to see it in the airlines, the tanks for the compressed NG would have to be pretty big!
did you know that the shipping or transportation industry of oil,, uses 2 billion barrels of oil alone? combined with  airlines and trucking, as well as rail transport, you still are going to have alot of need for oil, so we still need to find and drill for more of it in our own country, as well as finding other ways to power our homes and auto's
no   single solution exists, it can only be solved by doing all we can in every direction, IE, solar and NG as well as nuke and more oil from home
 i do love tho that the price has fallen since the pres. lifted his ban on drilling!
i really hope the congress does the same!
they need to remember they are the congress,
 of the people,
 by the people,
 and for the people!
                           not the caribou,
                           or the polar bear,
                           or the spotted owl               
                                            JUST THE PEOPLE

[lazs2]

nashwan.. I think 780,000 barrels a day is darn close to a million..  if we get a couple more million a day from offshore rigs.. and if we "conserve" a couple million a day by whatever means...


well..  a million barrels a day here another couple million a day there..  pretty soon you are talking real relief.

In any case..  even a million a day is better than nothing at all.   We need to start now.

lazs

[Nashwan]

Lazs, the problem is if China increases their oil consumption to the same levels as western Europe, China will need another 25 million barrels a day. India will need close to 30 million.

And all the time we are bringing new, small fields on line, older fields are drying up. For example, the Cantarell field in Mexico produced over 2 million barrels a day in 2003. It is now declining at over 10% year. The North Sea oil fields peaked in 1999 and are now producing about 25% less oil, and declining at a rate of about 10% per year. Cantarell and the North Sea are producing about 500,000 barrels a day less than last year.

The oil industry has to run very fast to stand still, and standing still results in huge oil price increases, as we have already seen.

[MORAY37]

nashwan.. I think 780,000 barrels a day is darn close to a million..  if we get a couple more million a day from offshore rigs.. and if we "conserve" a couple million a day by whatever means...


well..  a million barrels a day here another couple million a day there..  pretty soon you are talking real relief.

In any case..  even a million a day is better than nothing at all.   We need to start now.

lazs

As usual, you have no idea what you are talking about, this time being...what has driven gas prices up. Even OPEC has said that the demand has remained "static" It isn't based on supply and demand anymore.... futures traders have driven it up artificially, using the "enron loophole".  Drill all you want, until that's fixed, gas will go on up.  It's a commodity, something they thought they fixed after the stock market crashed in the 30's.  The ENRON brigade successfully lobbied to repeal that particular law....and here we are today....takin it up the tailpipe.  Around 55% of the current price rise since 1990 is due to this single act. The other 45% is due to the weakening dollar, which is the currency that OPEC set to trade oil at.  An increase in supply will do NOTHING.

Now be a good little child and read up on what I've just taught you.

[bj229r]

You misunderstood, bj229r. I'm not interested in arguing or name calling.

I wouldn't understand the big words anyway

[bj229r]

As usual, you have no idea what you are talking about, this time being...what has driven gas prices up. Even OPEC has said that the demand has remained "static" It isn't based on supply and demand anymore.... futures traders have driven it up artificially, using the "enron loophole".  Drill all you want, until that's fixed, gas will go on up.  It's a commodity, something they thought they fixed after the stock market crashed in the 30's.  The ENRON brigade successfully lobbied to repeal that particular law....and here we are today....takin it up the tailpipe.  Around 55% of the current price rise since 1990 is due to this single act. The other 45% is due to the weakening dollar, which is the currency that OPEC set to trade oil at.  An increase in supply will do NOTHING.

Now be a good little child and read up on what I've just taught you.

Hmmm...Moray you need to see Rolex's post where he contradicts all you just said re: traders....and on what basis is demand 'static', other than the last few months, where we have finally found out where the invisible line is where people will change their behavior?

[crockett]

There are several variants of the bio-diesel, if just one of them takes off it could be a replacement for regular diesel across the entire country.

Yea I know there are several different types. The problem is, it's unlikely anyone of those types could supply the entire country. The fuel needs to be the same across the entire country.. Hence the reason I say natural gas is likely the one one fuel that can do it all.

[JoeA]

Where on earth do you get the 2 million figure from?

The EIA estimates ANWR production would peak at 780,000 barrels a day, and production in the currently off limits parts of the outer continental shelf at about 200,000 barrels a day. That's a bit less than 1 million barrels a day, production won't start for about 10 years, and won't hit those peaks until 20 years from now.

ANWR production could *easily* start in 3-4 years with peak production occurring as quickly as you want to pay to bring it on line.  The "10 year" plan is stupid and assumes that work on the delivery system (estimated to take about 3-4 years) would not start until year 5 or 6.  Also the first 2-3 years of the plan are *solely* for paperwork.  What a load!

The entire USGS ANWR assessment, including the 780,000 barrels a day, is based on estimates that are 10-15 years old and assume an oil price of $20-25/barrel until 2020.  Lots of things have changed.  There's lots more ANWR oil at $130/barrel. 

The US needs to drill everywhere while working on conservation and alternative energy.  No logical reason not to, only political/ideological reasons stand in the way!

[Nashwan]

ANWR production could *easily* start in 3-4 years with peak production occurring as quickly as you want to pay to bring it on line.  The "10 year" plan is stupid and assumes that work on the delivery system (estimated to take about 3-4 years) would not start until year 5 or 6.  Also the first 2-3 years of the plan are *solely* for paperwork.  What a load!

No, the EIA analysis assumes the first 2 - 3 years are for issuing the permits and for collection of seismic data. As they point out:

The primary constraints to a rapid development of ANWR oil resources are the limited weather “windows” for collecting seismic data and drilling wells (a 3-to-4 month winter window) and for ocean barging of heavy infrastructure equipment to the well site (a 2-to-3 month summer window).

Their actual timeline is:

2 to 3 years to obtain leases, including the development of a U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) leasing program, which includes approval of an Environmental Impact Statement, the collection and analysis of seismic data, and the auction and award of leases.

2 to 3 years to drill a single exploratory well. Exploratory wells are slower to drill because geophysical data are collected during drilling, e.g., rock cores and well logs. Typically, Alaska North Slope exploration wells take two full winter seasons to reach the desired depth.

1 to 2 years to develop a production development plan and obtain BLM approval for that plan, if a commercial oil reservoir is discovered. Considerably more time could be required if the discovered oil reservoir is very deep, is filled with heavy oil, or is highly faulted. The petroleum company might have to collect more seismic data or drill delineation wells to confirm that the deposit is commercial.

3 to 4 years to construct the feeder pipelines; to fabricate oil separation and treatment plants, and transport them up from the lower-48 States to the North Slope by ocean barge; construct drilling pads; drill to depth; and complete the wells.

Apart from the extreme conditions in Alaska, another problem is that the oil industry is already working pretty much to capacity. The number of drilling rigs in operation in the US, for example, is more than double what it was in 2002.

The entire USGS ANWR assessment, including the 780,000 barrels a day, is based on estimates that are 10-15 years old and assume an oil price of $20-25/barrel until 2020.  Lots of things have changed.  There's lots more ANWR oil at $130/barrel.

No, the analysis was produced in 2008. It does take in to account higher prices, it's just that they don't have much impact in the early years. Higher prices make it more cost effective to use advanced recovery techniques, but they mainly have an impact as a field declines.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, which typically has a price premium of $5 to $8 per barrel over Alaska North Slope crude, has recently exceeded $120 per barrel.
Considered in isolation, higher prices alone might raise an expectation of higher ultimate recovery from whatever oil resource exists in place.11 Higher prices can motivate efforts to increase the recovery factor through more intensive drilling and through the application of advanced techniques to increase recovery factors. While the menu of available methods may in some cases be limited by the features of the Alaska North Slope environment, for example, steam-injection enhanced oil recovery of the near-surface West Sak heavy oil deposits could endanger the permafrost, some techniques would likely still be suitable. Higher prices also make it more attractive to go after very small fields that are in close proximity to the larger fields that are presumed to be the initial development targets. However, as discussed below, the main impact of such approaches on the amount of oil actually recovered from ANWR is likely to occur after 2030, the current time horizon for EIA analyses.

<snip>

In summary, the basic intuition that higher crude oil prices would likely result in higher ultimate recovery from whatever resource exists in place is sound. However, given the timing and cost considerations outlined above, EIA does not expect the recent increase in oil prices to affect the projected profile of ANWR development and production activities prior to 2030, the end of the time horizon for this analysis.

The US needs to drill everywhere while working on conservation and alternative energy.  No logical reason not to, only political/ideological reasons stand in the way!

Oh, I'd agree with that. Placing substantial oil fields off limits was a stupid idea in the first place. The 10 year timeline shows why.

[bj229r]

Id have to assume offshore drilling has a much faster startup than the mosquito refuge--I pointed out an article earlier that showed from the time Shell identified a spot in the Gulf they wasnted to drill---exactly 2 years later it was producing oil, eventually up to 300,000 barrels a day...ONE well!

[Nashwan]

Yes, the EIA estimates production would begin 5 years after the area was opened up.