Good questions, and I can't say that I know... I've never played with the nose-mounted guns in the TA.
One thing I've noticed in the TA is that the little green x doesn't always go where the bullets go... It's not quite a "perfect" tool. Rolex and I flew together in there doing quite a bit of testing a while back (over a year ago, I believe), and we were able to find some flaws with where the green x told you to shoot under certain circumstances. We actually had to aim differently in certain situations than the x told us to, in order to score hits. Honestly, I don't remember the specifics anymore though. I believe that firing while inverted was one place to see that.
I do a huge amount of shooting IRL, and pay a lot of attention to how things work. I shoot flat shooting rifles like my 22-250, and very slow, highly arched smoothbores like my BP Brown Bess (.75 cal). Even some BP cannons (Although I've now sold mine...) I pay a lot of attention to detail. Coming into the game with that knowledge, I'm probably looking for things that most folks don't pay attention to. Overall, I/we found the "shooting" model to be pretty close, but not quite perfect (I'm not complaining, it's way better than I expected it to prove out, and I have no idea how to make it better...)
A few things to realize when you test- One, the target is WAY bigger than you think. It's huge... The spacing between each ring is ten feet (from what I recall) which makes the center ring 20 feet across, and the total target size is 100ft x 100ft. What looks like a pretty nice, tight group may actually be 10-15 feet across! Two, ballistic "facts" like the fact that bullets will strike high when you fire uphill, OR downhill, are modelled correctly. I believe I see errors when I fire upside down, or in "knife-edge" attitudes, but it's awful hard to test/prove that. If there are errors there, I can't say that they adversely affect the game. Level flight is pretty easy, I do all my testing on Auto-level, afetr speed has built up and stabilized. Remember, in game most people hit things (with guns) less than 5% of the time... I'm not sure how much more difficult HTC needs to make the shooting... Also, if you fire while experiencing anything more or less than 1G your results will be skewed.
Another big factor is the vertical spacing between your "line of sight", and the muzzle of the weapon. The greater that distance the more difficult things get. When mounting a scope on a rifle, getting the scope as low and close to the barrel as you can is beneficial. In a plane like the F4U, that vertical distance appears to me to be 5-6 feet. It's less (so, better...) in a P38 (or any other nose-mount gun). Draw a line from your eye, through the sight, and to the target. That's always a straight line... Now, realize that in addition to tilting the muzzle up to compensate for trajectory, you also need the bullet to "come up" to your line of sight, and generally THROUGH your line of sight (in a hand-held rifle), to drop back down onto the target at range. My .270 bullet will cross my line of sight at about 25yds, be about 2.5 inches high at 50 yards, and hit the bulls-eye at 100, for example. If I set my F4U convergence at 100yds, with a flat shooting gun like a .50, where will my bullet hit at 200yds? Extremely high... For a 200 yard shot, the .50 has less than 3 inches of vertical "arch". But in the F4U with it's low guns, in order for the bullet to cross my line of sight at 100yds, its coming up roughly six feet! That's pretty steep! With the flat trajectory of the .50's I would guess my bullet would be a little less than 6 feet above the target at 200 yards, roughly 10-11 feet high (above my line of sight) at 300yds, maybe back to only 6-8 feet high at 400, and eventually coming back down to my line of sight... See what I mean?
Now, in game, that's not what I see. I can't get my bullets to hit high (above my line of sight) no matter how close I set my convergence. Even setting convergence to 200 should result in high hits at 300, when you take the line of sight and flat trajectory into account. Now, it may have something to do with the sighting system, I don't know... When we look through the sight, is it basically a pane of glass? Or are we seeing an image that compensates for the distance between the eye and the muzzle? No idea...
Now, if we tip the plane on its side, the guns are no longer tilted "up" to compensate for gravity, but to the side instead. Where should the bullets go now? Way over to the side due to the tilt of the guns, and way low, because there's no longer any tilt to fight gravity...
Put the plane inverted... now where should the bullets go? Now the "upward" barrel tilt to compensate for gravity is actually reversed... The barrels are now tilted to "assist" gravity... With a convergence set at say, 200yds, the bullets should actually cross through the line of sight earlier, so from the upside down pilots view his bullets will hit high (or completely miss the target, hehe!), which in reality means he's firing well UNDER his target (barrels are tilted down, and gravity is pulling down).
Anyway, there's a lot too it when you really look at it. And we're only looking at vertical aspects so far. There's probably more to it than we really want to discuss...