2012 End of The World?

[ink]

This seems to be a light hearted discussion (unless a Jupiter sized comet suddenly appears, which isn't likely since we track all comets and most large meteors)-- why would you get so angry you'd say something to get banned?

not angry at all.....but my reply fell in the religious category

[RTHolmes]

See Rule #4

[RoGenT]

I personally don't think the world is going to end in that day. I have no doubt eventually it will end, but not anytime soon.

Like someone else pointed out, the Mayans couldn't even predict their own culture being wiped out eventually, let alone when the world is. I am strong believer that they ended their calendar on that particular day. Plus if you think about, that culture believed in several type of gods and even the sun was eclipsed, they thought it was another god doing it.

I have to call balony on the whole ending in 2012 theory.

[PuppetZ]

I did consider it, but it was hardly relevant to my argumentation. Sure Earth is riddled with geological signs of past catastrophic event. The last quake in Japan and ensuing tsunami will surly leave a mark in the sediment deposited around the same time on the coasts of the pacific. We know it happened, We know it happens and we can guess without too much of a doubt that it will happen again. I will not be holding my breath on 12.21.12 tough. Not enough scientifc evidence to support any of these apocalypse hypothesis(I will not say theories as the word implies that it's something that's been tested and proven to work). Only the gibberish written by a man living in an age when most men tought the sun orbited earth. Or a calendar created by mayans thousands of years back (and a very precise one at that) to keep track of when to plant crop and their deity's holidays. If you write something on a stone you must stop when you run out of space. The only thing that keeps them from updating it is propbably the fact that the guy who make it it is dead.

[NatCigg]

I personally don't think the world is going to end in that day. I have no doubt eventually it will end, but not anytime soon.

Like someone else pointed out, the Mayans couldn't even predict their own culture being wiped out eventually, let alone when the world is. I am strong believer that they ended their calendar on that particular day. Plus if you think about, that culture believed in several type of gods and even the sun was eclipsed, they thought it was another god doing it.

I have to call balony on the whole ending in 2012 theory.

remember the movie w/ the the black panther? the white man showed up on the beach right on time.

[RTHolmes]

amazing.

[fbWldcat]

Seems to me that there was a book by Clive Cussler. Atlantis Found I believe. Members of the "Fourth Reich" who were essentially perfect clones of Hitler... Well... I'll let you all read it. Great book. Anyway, doomsday was to be man-made. To be lined up directly with the theory of 2012 I think. I read it years ago.

[Sundowner]

Quote from: Sundowner on Yesterday at 07:09:44 PM

Is it so very hard to not see the increase in frequency and severity of "natural" events and not discern a logical pattern? headscratch


Extrapolate into the future what the outcomes will be if the current trends continue and/or increase.

But is there an increase in frequency or severity of natural events?  Or is it that the cycle is so long that history does not record far enough into the past?  Or is it that there really isn't an increase in frequency or severity?  Perhaps it is all a function of a media that needs ever increasing calamity to satisfy present day sensationalism.  Or perhaps a certain subset of folks with their own agenda needs there to be an increase to validate them, so the tend to forget that there used to be things like super volcanoes etc.

Just saying...

Work with the best available data. Stating that there may be more unknown data is a flimsy (at best) method to support a position.

This bit of free research is all I give away for today...

 
Regards,
Sun



Late April tornado outbreak sets new record, Weather Service says

(CNN) -- At least 178 tornadoes were part of the severe weather that raked the Midwest and South April 27-28, making it the largest recorded tornado outbreak in U.S. history, the National Weather Service said Wednesday.

The number of twisters surpassed the previous record of 148 tornadoes in the April 3-4, 1974, outbreak, the Weather Service said.

The April 27-28 outbreak caused 327 deaths, making it the third deadliest tornado outbreak in U.S. history, behind outbreaks in 1925 and 1932, with 747 deaths and 332 deaths respectively.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/05/04/tornado.record/index.html?hpt=Sbin


Flood Unease Builds South Along the Mississippi

......Memphis, where the Mississippi was at 43.8 feet Tuesday, could see a near-record crest of 48 feet on May 11, just inches lower than the record of 48.7 feet in 1937.

Forecasters say the river could break records in Mississippi set during catastrophic floods in 1927 and a decade later. Gov. Haley Barbour started warning people last week to take precautions if they live in flood-prone areas near the river, comparing the swell of water moving downriver to a pig moving through a python.

With tornados and the threat of rivers gone wild, "we're making a lot of unfortunate history here in Mississippi in April and May," said Jeff Rent, a Mississippi Emergency Management Agency spokesman........

Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2011/05/04/flood-unease-builds-south-mississippi/#ixzz1LR6mbnpi

Japan earthquake becomes fifth-strongest since 1900
The strongest quake occurred in Chile in 1960 and measured magnitude 9.5. The devastating quake in Japan supplants the 2010 Chile quake, which at 8.8 was fifth-strongest. The deadliest quake in history is believed to have been an 8.0 temblor in Shaanxi, China, in 1556, in which 830,000 are believed to have died.
March 11, 2011|By Michael Muskal | Los Angeles Times

When the earth shook off the coast of Japan on Friday, the magnitude 8.9 quake became the fifth strongest since 1900.

According to records kept by the U.S. Geological Survey's Earthquake Information Center, the largest quake remains the one in Chile in 1960 that measured 9.5. That was followed by the 1964 quake in Prince William Sound, Alaska, at 9.2; the 2004 quake off of Sumatra, at 9.1; and the 1952 quake in Kamchatka, a peninsula in eastern Russia near the Bering Sea, at 9.0......
http://articles.latimes.com/2011/mar/11/news/la-pn-worst-earthquakes-in-history-20110311

[PuppetZ]

Work with the best available data. Stating that there may be more unknown data is a flimsy (at best) method to support a position.

This bit of free research is all I give away for today...

 

Stating that you can predict the long term outcome of a complicated system like the earth atmospheric/hydrologic system is flimsy (at best), and probably a bit arrogant from us as a race. These record flood and whatnot are merely record in relations to what WE have experienced and measured in the recent past. We hold no (really good, only hints and bits of) data regarding the last 4 billions or so years. And I must also say that the event are fairly localised as many place around the world that are not at any particular risk have not (quite surprisingly) experienced any form of out of the ordinary event. And if I might add, that would be very surprising the Mississippi didn't flood from time to time (especially in spring) since it has shown a propency to do so in the past. Let's take another example, in 2005 with the hurricane, the storm tide did flood lands that were merely a few feet from sea level. The catastrophe is undisputable. But that's hardly something that was totally unexpected. They even had digs in place so someone knew of the risk. That hurricane's storm surge and a combination of factors simply overwhelmed the defense the city put in place to keep the sea out of it's street. There has been tornadoes in the midwest before ,in fact, in the article you quote, it says that 2 times before the outbreak has been deadliest. The strenght of the japanese quake is related to the amount of tension accumulated and released when the tectonics plates moved and cannot be correlated with any trends since the tension in that fault line began to build probably thousands of years back. And let me make a prediction : San-Fransisco will probably experience a major quake in the coming century. Last one was in 1906. And before that we don't know for sure (maybe someone can correct me here). There will be death and major disruption of human activity. And yet someone WILL be surprised when it happens even tough it practically sitting on the San-Andreas fault. Heck, if I write it in quatrain I'm sure someone will vow me a cult.

The town of the towering bridge
will fall and burn
when in the bowel of earth
saint-Andrew grumbles with anger

(ok, I have no idea what a quatrain is...  )

[Sonicblu]

Ah just makes me want to get my shotgun, put on my wifebeater tshirt and start hunting zombies.

[Sundowner]

Stating that you can predict the long term outcome of a complicated system like the earth atmospheric/hydrologic system is flimsy (at best), and probably a bit arrogant from us as a race. These record flood and whatnot are merely record in relations to what WE have experienced and measured in the recent past. We hold no (really good, only hints and bits of) data regarding the last 4 billions or so years. And I must also say that the event are fairly localised as many place around the world that are not at any particular risk have not (quite surprisingly) experienced any form of out of the ordinary event. And if I might add, that would be very surprising the Mississippi didn't flood from time to time (especially in spring) since it has shown a propency to do so in the past. Let's take another example, in 2005 with the hurricane, the storm tide did flood lands that were merely a few feet from sea level. The catastrophe is undisputable. But that's hardly something that was totally unexpected. They even had digs in place so someone knew of the risk. That hurricane's storm surge and a combination of factors simply overwhelmed the defense the city put in place to keep the sea out of it's street. There has been tornadoes in the midwest before ,in fact, in the article you quote, it says that 2 times before the outbreak has been deadliest. The strenght of the japanese quake is related to the amount of tension accumulated and released when the tectonics plates moved and cannot be correlated with any trends since the tension in that fault line began to build probably thousands of years back. And let me make a prediction : San-Fransisco will probably experience a major quake in the coming century. Last one was in 1906. And before that we don't know for sure (maybe someone can correct me here). There will be death and major disruption of human activity. And yet someone WILL be surprised when it happens even tough it practically sitting on the San-Andreas fault. Heck, if I write it in quatrain I'm sure someone will vow me a cult.

"Increases in frequency and severity" is the pattern to look for.

In order to maximize pattern correlations many data points must be sampled. Best case is all data available.

Stating that there are possibly many more unknown data points in the past doesn't necessarily invalidate the current analysis of the available data pool!

Of course to get the widest possible number of data points requires "butt-time"--time in the chair spent researching.

Also this skill can come in handy:

Pattern recognition intelligence score
http://www.intelligencetest.com/report/pattern-recognition.htm

Out of all mental abilities this type of intelligence is said to have the highest correlation with the general intelligence factor, g. This is primarily because pattern recognition is the ability to see order in a chaotic environment; the primary condition for life. Patterns can be found in ideas, words, symbols and images and pattern recognition is unlearned and untrainable. Pattern recognition is a key determinant of your potential in logical, verbal, numerical and spatial abilities. It is essential for reasoning because your capacity to think logically is based on your perception of the logic around you. Your pattern recognition skills are expressed verbally through your long term exposure to language and your mathematical and spatial abilities are based on your perception of numerical data and 3D objects.

Regards,
Sun

[Lepape2]

People think there is more disasters than ever before and that they are therefore not normal... WRONG!
The increasing amount of media coverage and sources of information or detectors/satellites means that more disasters will be talked about. The massive fish and bird deaths this winter is just the perfect example of that: It has always happened for hundreds of years (If not millions)! but no one ever heard anything about it, so they freak out.

Stop freaking out!

Nibiru doesnt exist
Sun will be aligned with center of galaxy? So what? Happens every year.
Planet alignment? wow... get the program "Stellarium" and see for yourself.
Increased earthquake rates? wow... see the USGS website for yourself.
Climate change? Pff... nothing compared to the last ice age or super volcano.
What else... Oh yeah! Solar flares... don't fly in commercial flights that go over the poles after an earth directed flare... simple as that.  
Humm... magnetic pole shift? Unlikely.
Geographic pole shift? Axial Precession and Milankovitch Cycles...

[Karnak]

The Earth will end, yes it surely will....

In about four point five billion years as Sol consumes the last of its hydrogen and swells into a red giant, incinerating the inner planets.



I don't think this eventuality really matters to Homo Sapiens Sapiens.

[coombz]

People think there is more disasters than ever before and that they are therefore not normal... WRONG!
The increasing amount of media coverage and sources of information or detectors/satellites means that more disasters will be talked about.
Stop freaking out!

Amen 

Fear sells

[Lepape2]

Amen 

Fear sells

Yup... and if you are still not convinced, you can always start to gather some savings for this:
http://bunkers.intuitwebsites.com/