Let me get this straight:
You guys take the change in numbers as a proof for players changing sides "in masses"? Hum... facepalm or lol smiley...
Ever noticed how much the numbers change over the day, even without no war victory is anywhere in sight? Ever thought that having numbers may be a essential part and couse of winning the war in the first place? Ever noticed how player just will log off in disgust when their country get's beaten up?
Sorry, but you have to come up with something better.
Until then, it's just one of those things everybody knows... like "friendly troops reset maproom" some time ago or "you 'win' the collisions if your connection is faster"