Dark Man Cometh???

[Brooke]

For some reason I thought this was about corona virus.

Brooke, mind taking a look at this guys stuff and commenting?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3etuaYTDwFI&feature=em-lsp

I'm concerned about SARS-2, but I don't know if it will end up being horrific (like a million dead Americans) or more like a bad flu season.

Things that give me hope it won't be so bad (but see below):
-- Infection rates and death rates don't seem to be exponential.  (If true, this is *very* good.)
-- We aren't currently hearing of 20 deaths, then 200, then 2000 in the US.
-- Hospitals aren't overwhelmed currently.
-- Infection rates in China are supposedly going down.
-- Death rate is perhaps a lot lower than 1-3% since number of people infected is probably way higher than confirmed cases.
-- Warmer weather is coming, and infection rate might go way down.

But:
-- It's still early in the process.
-- Could easily take a year for a vaccine.
-- Testing in the US is botched so badly that we don't know infection rates.  (This makes me angry.  The US had months of advanced notice and more money than anyone.  It's so badly botched that it opens up suspicion.  However, the power of ineptitude and mistakes is very large.)
-- Will our organizations tell the common man true infection rates and death rates?
-- It would take only a small increase in need for special care in hospitals to swamp them.
-- Is infection rate in China truly going down?
-- Lots of businesses (and thus related jobs) are, I suspect, going to get creamed.

In the end, our choices range from doing nothing (live as usual) to living in a sealed plastic bubble, and it depends on our specific situation.

I have two 10 year olds.  One has at times needed hospitalization for breathing after getting respiratory infections.  I have elderly parents.  One is medically immunosuppressed for Crohn's disease.  We all live in or next to Kirkland, Washington -- US ground zero.  When people say, "It only seriously affects old people or people with conditions," I don't think, "Oh, that's fine then."

So, here's what I do.  I would be keeping my kids out of school even if schools weren't closed (which they are) for at least a couple of weeks while I see how this is playing out.  (I perhaps wouldn't do that if we weren't in ground zero, or if one of them weren't more susceptible to breathing problems.)  We mostly stay home and don't go to places with lots of people (restaurants, the gym, the mall, the movie theater).  I don't eat restaurant-prepared food much (as that goes through many hands).  The adults are careful about putting fingers in mouths or rubbing eyes, using hand sanitizer after using an ATM, gas pump, etc.  When I come home from work, I wash my hands and put on a different shirt before I hug my kids and wife.  Everyone washes hands before eating.  I wipe my mobile phone down with an alcohol swab before I come home for the day.  I don't kiss my kids or even my wife on their faces for now.  I reduce the number of days per week that I eat lunch next to co-workers.

I will do this while I see how it goes here at US ground zero.

[Meatwad]

with clay and a sharp stick?


semp

Yes

[CptTrips]

I'm concerned about SARS-2, but I don't know if it will end up being horrific (like a million dead Americans) or more like a bad flu season.

It's hard to know.  Especially now that it appears that it is beginning to mutate.  It's possible that the Italian strain is more violent than the S. Korean strain.  Many are taking the S. Korean numbers as the cleanest data-set as they've done extensive testing and are probably as close as we are going to get.  With their numbers is it still conceivable  that mortality in this country could be 2x to 3x common Flu.  That could be over 100,000 deaths in the next year.  That would be pretty horrific to me.  I hope it is less than that, it's possible it can be much worse.

-- Infection rates and death rates don't seem to be exponential.  (If true, this is *very* good.)
-- We aren't currently hearing of 20 deaths, then 200, then 2000 in the US.

It's too hard to tell that in the early sequence of a series.  By June, we will have a much clearer picture of how this is going to progress. 

-- Hospitals aren't overwhelmed currently.

That's like saying in Jan of 1942 the US had not suffered many deaths in WWII.

-- Infection rates in China are supposedly going down.

Don't rely on that.  There are wide-spread concerns that China is cooking it's numbers.

-- Warmer weather is coming, and infection rate might go way down.

Maybe.  There is no evidence yet that this virus follows that pattern.  But with you might be hard pressed to feel the difference between exponential growth and mere geometric growth.

-- Lots of businesses (and thus related jobs) are, I suspect, going to get creamed.

That's the big Kahuna.  I'd say 2nd order effects would spread that to "most" businesses.  If they are not directly effected, they are effected because businesses or customers they depend on are effected.

And the Central Banks never cleared they ledgers from the last collapse and have not ammo to use.  And the market is extremely over valued.  And...

People can never wrap their heads around a really, really bad situation at first.  Same reason many of the first life boats off the Titanic were half empty.  The natural instinct is to say to themselves, "surely this just blow over."   https://psychcentral.com/lib/the-5-stages-of-loss-and-grief/

(Sorry, I'm going to make you mad.)  I believe we have exactly the wrong leadership for this crisis. I believe the country has not been this broken and divided in 150 years.   I believe the markets are leaning way over their ski's, just asking for it.  I believe the Central Banks have been behaving in a deranged manner and are about to get caught with their pants down. 

I believe this is a once in 100 year black swan.

Good luck.

[DmonSlyr]

hate to tell you but neither does violator.  him and his conspiracy theories calling others cockroaches, traitors and other stupid comments.

he claims whatever he listens to is the only right way.  that dude is so far gone that he actually believes there's 60k secret indictments which is surprising because a while ago, he claimed there were 93k secret indictments.

the American basic values of society was just a dream based on who you ask.

you defending a guy that years ago claimed Americans were gonna be held in concentration camps.  and i can go on and on, but violator proved everything i have said just in this thread alone.



semp

A cockroach, coward, and a traitor.
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-acting-inspector-general-us-department-homeland-security-indicted-theft-government

You see I have 0 sympathy for peices of crap who abuse our people and sell us out.
The liberal, sell out your children agenda, is OVER.

Isnt it strange how you losers constantly attack Trump every day while Obama ordered over 2500 drone strikes In Syria, overthrew the Lybian government, had ambassadors killed, funded isis, sold out to russia and iran, committed a coup in Ukraine, sold us out to China, and committed false flag attacks on Americans to take our guns.

Now the left is hoping people get sick so that they can short the markets and make Trump look bad. Its sick.

You will never be able to convince me he isnt 100x times better than all of your coward clowns. He makes me proud to be an American every single day. If you don't like that he is making America better and stronger every day. You can eat crap. I am tired of your peoples crap liberal agenda. I am glad your pathetic side is getting what's coming for em.

[CptTrips]

<insert 4chan rant here...>

So, less than 100 CoronaVirus/SARS-2/COVID-19 deaths in the US in the next year?

[Oldman731]

The liberal, sell out your children agenda, is OVER.

Isnt it strange how you losers constantly attack Trump every day while Obama ordered over 2500 drone strikes In Syria, overthrew the Lybian government, had ambassadors killed, funded isis, sold out to russia and iran, committed a coup in Ukraine, sold us out to China, and committed false flag attacks on Americans to take our guns.

Now the left is hoping people get sick so that they can short the markets and make Trump look bad. Its sick.

You will never be able to convince me he isnt 100x times better than all of your coward clowns. He makes me proud to be an American every single day. If you don't like that he is making America better and stronger every day. You can eat crap. I am tired of your peoples crap liberal agenda. I am glad your pathetic side is getting what's coming for em.

Can we take up a collection to bring Skuzzy back, just to monitor the boards?  Sooner or later, even we mild-mannered types probably will start to respond to this sort of ugliness.  Madness must follow.

- oldman

[AKKuya]

The worst case scenario is the infection rate increases exponentially through an airborne virus strain.  This allows the possibility of a strain that can incubate within an infected person under 6 hours.  The mortality rate hovers around 50%.

When that happens, our worst fears will become a nightmarish reality.  Every theoretical piece of paper written on this, every book, movie, and TV series will be put to the test.

The social breaking point will start with the food riots especially in the major cities and western countries where urban lifestyle centered around economic shopping.  These will be the most dangerous places to be.  Lives will be lost in the tens of thousands world wide when panic and desperation turns good natured people into killer protective mode for their families in a only the strong will survive mentality.

Rural camps of refugees will become the new local form of rudimentary government.  Forward thinking leaders of these settlements will establish a procedural testing method for new arrivals.  Those that are not infected will have to decide on leaving any family member who is infected.  infected members of the family will be quarantined and await any possibility of leftover cures if any was ever created.  A settlement security force will be created to enforce the tough situations arisen from the separation of family members plus the day to day infractions of refugees trying to survive and any outside threats from criminals and other local warlords trying to seize the resources of these settlements.

This will continue until either a cure has been able to be manufactures and delivered around the world or the virus has run its course and only the naturally immune has survived.  Depending on the world wide population left, this will determine the future course of humanity.

1) Better utopian approach to better living and understanding
2) Back to those with strength to rule over the weak
3) The Haves and the Haves Not


The final situation when humanity has been reduced to under 10 million population world wide.

Cats and dogs are living together.



Gentlemen, let's stat placing our bets now.  I'm going all in on cats and dogs living together. 

[Brooke]

That's like saying . . .

Don't rely on that.

Yep.  That's why I put in the "but see below" part that gives all the caveats.

(Sorry, I'm going to make you mad.)

Not at all.  You and I probably have a similar mindset on many things.

I believe this is a once in 100 year black swan.

I'm not dismissive of the odds.  We've had our roaring '20's.  Which tech billionaire is our Great Gatsby?

[guncrasher]

A cockroach, coward, and a traitor.
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/former-acting-inspector-general-us-department-homeland-security-indicted-theft-government

You see I have 0 sympathy for peices of crap who abuse our people and sell us out.
The liberal, sell out your children agenda, is OVER.

Isnt it strange how you losers constantly attack Trump every day while Obama ordered over 2500 drone strikes In Syria, overthrew the Lybian government, had ambassadors killed, funded isis, sold out to russia and iran, committed a coup in Ukraine, sold us out to China, and committed false flag attacks on Americans to take our guns.

Now the left is hoping people get sick so that they can short the markets and make Trump look bad. Its sick.

You will never be able to convince me he isnt 100x times better than all of your coward clowns. He makes me proud to be an American every single day. If you don't like that he is making America better and stronger every day. You can eat crap. I am tired of your peoples crap liberal agenda. I am glad your pathetic side is getting what's coming for em.

omg false flag attacks in the usa.

funny story i moved to the USA in 79 early 80s saw an nra hour long documentary about how they were coming to take our guns, joined nra, almost 40 years now, nobody had showed up at my house to take my guns.

i don't know of anybody other than convicted felons that have their guns taken away. well except those that have been tried to harm themselves or others.

only ones that took my gun away was the marines when they said thank you, now go to the gate and don't come back.


semp

[rabbidrabbit]

Can you guys stop poking the crazy train so we can talk about the actual subject matter.  Thanks.

[Arlo]

Can you guys stop poking the crazy train so we can talk about the actual subject matter.  Thanks.

Is your version of this forum thread somehow edited to appear differently from the rest of us?

[rabbidrabbit]

I'm concerned about SARS-2, but I don't know if it will end up being horrific (like a million dead Americans) or more like a bad flu season.

Things that give me hope it won't be so bad (but see below):
-- Infection rates and death rates don't seem to be exponential.  (If true, this is *very* good.)
-- We aren't currently hearing of 20 deaths, then 200, then 2000 in the US.
-- Hospitals aren't overwhelmed currently.
-- Infection rates in China are supposedly going down.
-- Death rate is perhaps a lot lower than 1-3% since number of people infected is probably way higher than confirmed cases.
-- Warmer weather is coming, and infection rate might go way down.

But:
-- It's still early in the process.
-- Could easily take a year for a vaccine.
-- Testing in the US is botched so badly that we don't know infection rates.  (This makes me angry.  The US had months of advanced notice and more money than anyone.  It's so badly botched that it opens up suspicion.  However, the power of ineptitude and mistakes is very large.)
-- Will our organizations tell the common man true infection rates and death rates?
-- It would take only a small increase in need for special care in hospitals to swamp them.
-- Is infection rate in China truly going down?
-- Lots of businesses (and thus related jobs) are, I suspect, going to get creamed.

Thanks for the well thought out response as usual.  I pretty much agree with all your points.

Some notes from my research so far. 
There are two strains, the original and a more virulent strain.  The lesser is basically equivalent to a bad run of the flu, the more virulent strain is decidedly worse. 

R0
In China, they were seeing a R0 of 3.84 until they instituted increasingly severe  countermeasures.  We can probably assume a similar number here.  With a base R0 about twice as high as the flu, it's not likely to just fade away like the flu tends to each summer as it's R0 naturally drops below 1.  We can reasonably expect the R0 to drop and slow the spread but not go just go away.  We have seen similar R0 in Italy and other places with case doubling every 3-5 days.  That's disturbing as it will take severe measures to choke the R0 back below 1 even with summer coming.

CFR
We are seeing a CFR from .5 in South Korea (best case) to north of 6 in other places when there is limited medical support.  We can probably assume the base CFR is in that upper range but high quality medical care can mitigate that down to .5 or maybe even lower.

One thing that affects the CFR is the denominator which is the highest in South Korea because they are testing everyone who was in contact with someone with it and anyone else who asks.  In most other countries, restricted testing cuts down on the official numbers of those testing positive but also bumps up the official CFR.

BTW, The cases in China are almost certainly cooked numbers but there are widespread reports that the case loads are going down.   For now...  As they force people to go back to work and as what they unleashed on the rest of the world comes back at them, they will be in a constant struggle for the foreseeable future.

So, I'm concerned about the US as it seems to be following the wrong model of restrictive testing to keep the official numbers down.  Everyone else that followed that path is seeing high growth in weekly cases as this method is least effective in actually reducing spread.  You are right to say the medical system isn't overwhelmed yet but then again, we are just getting started.  Italy had just a few cases three weeks ago and is now quarantining the entire Lombard province and calling all retired medical personnel back and putting critical patients in hallways as they are out of beds in the affected region.  They are collapsing and they are only part way through the first stage of the pandemic.  The killer is everyone else is not much more than a few weeks behind them on the curve including the US so it's likely to hit everyone around the same time.  The US has little ability to absorb any additional cases in many areas.  We are back in the Boston area and my wife's hospital which is a major metropolitan medical center was diverting patients three out of the last seven days because they were at 100% occupancy.  There is no place to put any new patients, never mind highly infectious ones needing critical care.  They are currently freaking out about the CDC telling people over 60 to stay home because they are the main blood donors and the blood supply is perpetually at critically low numbers.  What is going to happen as things slide downhill?

On a side note, I hope you might be coming to the Boston area some time in the future. If so, lunch is on me.

[FLS]

Testing was only restricted because there were limited tests available thanks to CDC screwing up. That's changing now.

[DmonSlyr]

Can we take up a collection to bring Skuzzy back, just to monitor the boards?  Sooner or later, even we mild-mannered types probably will start to respond to this sort of ugliness.  Madness must follow.

- oldman

Dont blame me for what your people did. Dont F act like I am not suppose to be mad for what these cowards are doing to my country. I am so tired of losers giving the last administration a pass while they constantly go after Trump. I am really F tired of it.

Go cry me a river Oldman. You want to make silly comments about me? I will gladly respond and shove it in your face to call out hypocrites like you and others.

I'm concerned about SARS-2, but I don't know if it will end up being horrific (like a million dead Americans) or more like a bad flu season.

Things that give me hope it won't be so bad (but see below):
-- Infection rates and death rates don't seem to be exponential.  (If true, this is *very* good.)
-- We aren't currently hearing of 20 deaths, then 200, then 2000 in the US.
-- Hospitals aren't overwhelmed currently.
-- Infection rates in China are supposedly going down.
-- Death rate is perhaps a lot lower than 1-3% since number of people infected is probably way higher than confirmed cases.
-- Warmer weather is coming, and infection rate might go way down.

But:
-- It's still early in the process.
-- Could easily take a year for a vaccine.
-- Testing in the US is botched so badly that we don't know infection rates.  (This makes me angry.  The US had months of advanced notice and more money than anyone.  It's so badly botched that it opens up suspicion.  However, the power of ineptitude and mistakes is very large.)
-- Will our organizations tell the common man true infection rates and death rates?
-- It would take only a small increase in need for special care in hospitals to swamp them.
-- Is infection rate in China truly going down?
-- Lots of businesses (and thus related jobs) are, I suspect, going to get creamed.

In the end, our choices range from doing nothing (live as usual) to living in a sealed plastic bubble, and it depends on our specific situation.

I have two 10 year olds.  One has at times needed hospitalization for breathing after getting respiratory infections.  I have elderly parents.  One is medically immunosuppressed for Crohn's disease.  We all live in or next to Kirkland, Washington -- US ground zero.  When people say, "It only seriously affects old people or people with conditions," I don't think, "Oh, that's fine then."

So, here's what I do.  I would be keeping my kids out of school even if schools weren't closed (which they are) for at least a couple of weeks while I see how this is playing out.  (I perhaps wouldn't do that if we weren't in ground zero, or if one of them weren't more susceptible to breathing problems.)  We mostly stay home and don't go to places with lots of people (restaurants, the gym, the mall, the movie theater).  I don't eat restaurant-prepared food much (as that goes through many hands).  The adults are careful about putting fingers in mouths or rubbing eyes, using hand sanitizer after using an ATM, gas pump, etc.  When I come home from work, I wash my hands and put on a different shirt before I hug my kids and wife.  Everyone washes hands before eating.  I wipe my mobile phone down with an alcohol swab before I come home for the day.  I don't kiss my kids or even my wife on their faces for now.  I reduce the number of days per week that I eat lunch next to co-workers.

I will do this while I see how it goes here at US ground zero.

IMO, only 3,000 going down in China is really not that bad.

It's going to be <100 in America. We are much cleaner and more spread out than china. We are much healthier for the most part than China. No cases of any children getting this virus yet. (I find that strange)

The media and everyone is literally spreading fear like a wildfire.

They want a recession, they want to control us with fear. They want to make Trump look bad at all cost. It's all perfect timing.

I am not worried about it. If it was really bad, you'd see people dying left and right, and fast. I am not seeing that.

This is a fear based propaganda campaign to short the markets. While I think it will continue to spread a little bit, it's going to be over by the end of March.

I'm not saying to not take precautions, but I really dont think it's as bad as the media wishes it was.

[CptTrips]

It's going to be <100 in America.
[...]
While I think it will continue to spread a little bit, it's going to be over by the end of March.
[...]

Recorded. 

(The rest discarded.)