Dark Man Cometh???

[CptTrips]

False,the ratio you speak of is tested positive not infected.The mistake of that term is really starting to irritate me because infected to positive test is a huge uknown.

Then put aside the unknowns for now.   Simply look at the number of actual deaths and the rate of increase.  That is a known.  We're not guessing about the dead bodies.




The US has bee tracking a death rate that's doubling every 3 day.  There is no evidence so far of that velocity is slowing.  I'm hoping after a couple of months of tight quarantine, we can bend that curve, but for a couple of months that's going to continue anyway from the infected that are already in the pipeline.

This chart was for Mar 23 and we were approaching 500.  (I don't believe China's or Iran's improvement.  They have just made a political decision to stop reporting true death numbers.)
By the 26th we blew past 1000.  (3 days)

If we continued that rate:  (I hope we don't.  This is not a prediction, just seeing "what ifs".)

Mar 29th = 2000
Apr 1 = 4000
Apr 4 = 8000
Apr 7 = 16000
Apr 10 = 32000
Apr 13 = 64000
Apr 16 = 128000
Apr 19 = 256,000
(Lets say by here we start seeing the effect of the quarantine bending the curve.  Maybe to doubling every week.)
Apr 26 = 512,000
May 3 = etc

What would it be a year from now?

I find those numbers hard to believe.  I honestly hope to God they are not even close to being correct.

But just looking at them and projecting further, I say fuggit.  Shut everything down and print as much money as we need for 3 months and bend that curve.  We'll clean it up later.
I think the economic damage might pale in comparison to the social/political disorder if we see 1000-2000 deaths per day, every day, for months at a time.



 

[FLS]

For some of us this debate about death numbers and politics is really getting old. By the time this is over the death toll worldwide is going to be biblical. Laying blame is both ignorant and meaningless. Science has already proven that no one is to blame; viruses mutate and when they do, they can become deadly.
This is not an American crisis, its a world crisis akin to a world war. It's going to take worldwide scientific co-operation to solve it; and politicians need to get out of the way.

As for blame, it's obvious that China lying and covering this up is why it's a pandemic and not just another local outbreak. It's also the reason the initial response was slow all over the world. 

I think we can also blame the national stockpile of masks being depleted in 2009 and not being restocked on somebody.

[SysError]

If only you guys could see the Double Reverse False Flag Operation under way right now you would understand what is going on here....

Gary "Heavin ...  said of COVID-19, “We know that it’s a weaponized virus because we see the RNA strands that were put into this virus from HIV, from MERS, and from the SARS virus. There’s no way this could have happened in nature.” As for who made COVID-19, Heavin pointed to “the powers that be in this country who want to destroy [Donald] Trump’s presidency.”"

   

https://www.mediamatters.org/infowars/texas-businessman-who-claims-coronavirus-race-targeting-bioweapon-says-he-advised-texas

[CptTrips]

The US has bee tracking a death rate that's doubling every 3 day.  There is no evidence so far of that velocity is slowing.

I should have said the death "count" was on a trend of doubling every 3 days, not the "rate".  It was late.  My brain was tired. 

[OldNitro]

If only you guys could see the Double Reverse False Flag Operation under way right now you would understand what is going on here....
   

https://www.mediamatters.org/infowars/texas-businessman-who-claims-coronavirus-race-targeting-bioweapon-says-he-advised-texas

Sorass owned Grooms of the Stool, at Mediasplatters???

Just listen to the real thing yourself, the original Gary Heavin segment is on Banned.video..
I was listening that day, there was many different opinions being tossed around over the 4 hr show..

There is genuine concern that this is not of natural origin, AND, They will use it as a political weapon against Trump.. Plainly, they already are, no doubt about that!

Heavin was right about that.. But, Trump screwed up on this, and gave them an opening, and they are going to play it for all it is worth.. Not all Trump supporters agree with Kung Flu policy, me being one of them..

Many people are concerned that these unprecedented powers being assumed by Govt, will never be returned to normal.. Unfortunately, there is a long history of that.. And the longer this lasts, the more likely some form of Tyranny will spawn from it.. I am part of that group as well..

That is why I support some drastic measures, to END IT NOW.. Then, the wannabe Hitlers don't have any reason to continue their power grab.. The absolute WORST option, is to drag it out!

It is a strange confusing juxtaposition to be in..
But, ya can't fight for freedom, if you are dead from the Kung Flu..

[CptTrips]

These estimates are a bit more optimistic than the numbers I posted last night.  Too optimistic?  I'm skeptical that the death rate drops that much starting June.  So far there is no evidence that this virus will decline in Summer (Sure hope it does.  That would give us some needed time.).  And by June, the resolve to maintain quarantines will have evaporated so the infection rate will accelerate again.  Come Sept, Oct, Nov?  Hold on Nellie.  That might make April look like a walk in the park.


https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

[hitech]

Then put aside the unknowns for now.   Simply look at the number of actual deaths and the rate of increase.  That is a known.  We're not guessing about the dead bodies.

You seem to be trying to prove something I'm not even speaking about?

HiTech

[Shuffler]

Usa just surged past china in cases of coronavirus.

Don't worry shuffler...........you will get your deaths.

Not that many go to china or can leave china.  USA has always been free to come and go. What did you expect?

How many cases of flu are there now?

I know some do not care... but just because they hate facts does not mean you should ignore it.

Texas sitting at 23 deaths.

[hitech]

So far there is no evidence that this virus will decline in Summer (Sure hope it does.  That would give us some needed time.).  And by June, the resolve to maintain quarantines will have evaporated so the infection rate will accelerate again.  Come Sept, Oct, Nov?  Hold on Nellie.  That might make April look like a walk in the park.

Just for the sake of argument consider the possibility that for every 1 person testing positive there are another 10 people who had the virus but were never tested. And now consider the graphs you are seeing on number of cases has been extremely skewed by the fact that how many test were available to be run has expanded greatly over the last 2 weeks.

So what are you really measuring by looking at the numbers of confirmed cases.

The death count is a fair measure of the current rate of expansion of the virus, but with out knowing the real infection rates it is very difficult to do longer term projection of those rates which will follow a bell curve, not a continuing exponential curve.

But I believe the chart you posted https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections is well with in the realm of possibilities. My only issue is that to try extrapolate %death rate from current confirmed infections numbers, at this time is folly. Hence why it irritates me when the terms confirmed vs total infections are used interchangeably.

HiTech

[CptTrips]

You seem to be trying to prove something I'm not even speaking about?

No, I'm not.  I'm trying to agree with you. 

I'm just providing an alternative method method of projecting possible outcomes bases on known, hard data we do have, because trying to project outcomes based on CFR and currently reported infection rates is problematic because we exactly don't know how many are infected and haven't been tested. 

So I'm suggesting don't look at it that way. Exactly for that reason.  project along the known, measured death rate until you see that curve bend.


 

 

[CptTrips]

So what are you really measuring by looking at the numbers of confirmed cases.

Which is exactly why I'm suggesting not to do that. Because I'm agreeing that is weak data.

[Mister Fork]

Which is exactly why I'm suggesting not to do that. Because I'm agreeing that is weak data.

It's the untested that pose a HUGE risk to containing this disease. Many states are now only testing those who show up and require ICU/medical care. That poses a mind-boggling question, WTF are they hoping to accomplish by under-reporting COVID infections?

So people can do along their quasi-quarantined day and infect everyone they meet at the grocery store, fast food outlet, or gas bar? Just because the state wanted to save a few bucks and only test those who are symptomatic?

And does anyone believe that China only had 80k/3k infected/deaths? I sure don't. Up here, the government is only testing those who require hospitalization. The WHO's motto is  TEST, TEST, and TEST.  It seems the stupid method of "test only the sick" is a great way to make this pandemic an apocalyptic catalyst.

 

[OldNitro]

Oh Great!

A university in Iceland did a genetic study within their small population, that allowed them to track it directly back to the source carriers.. One from Italy, One from Austria, One from UK.. Apparently, they are separate mutations.. Now they have discovered 40 mutations.. And, that a person can have more than one mutation at the same time..

Maybe that's why people are getting re-infected???

[CptTrips]

It's the untested that pose a HUGE risk to containing this disease. Many states are now only testing those who show up and require ICU/medical care. That poses a mind-boggling question, WTF are they hoping to accomplish by under-reporting COVID infections?

Oh, I'm not saying don't test people.  I'm saying you test for a different reason.  To identify infected and get them isolated and early aggressive treatment.


I'm saying that using the tested known infected and either trying to extrapolate or apply CFR numbers at this point is problematic for projection purposes. And you need to be able to make reasonable projections to make informed decisions.  You're better data to make projections from, are the know deaths we know we've had, and the rate at which those deaths appear to be currently increasing. 

There is, of course,  a limit to how far along that trend line you can project confidently, but it is by far the best dataset to get a grasp of where this is heading in the short to mid-term.

But if you think there is a better model, I'm open to hearing the argument.

[CptTrips]

Oh Great!

A university in Iceland did a genetic study within their small population, that allowed them to track it directly back to the source carriers.. One from Italy, One from Austria, One from UK.. Apparently, they are separate mutations.. Now they have discovered 40 mutations.. And, that a person can have more than one mutation at the same time..

Maybe that's why people are getting re-infected???

Can I get your link for that?  Thanks.