Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY

[perdue3]

But, they will only allow 10 people to attend the funeral for Granny, which is worse?

[CptTrips]

I don't think our legal system and its armies of lawyers will  let you cremate granny on hospital grounds without a fight

I don't think there would be any particular difficulty when the needs for public safety are primary.

The same way they can fine or arrest you for violating Shelter-in-Place orders.

All it takes is a piece of paper. Even a local county judge can sign that and put it in force.  Certainly a Governor declaring a state emergency.  Certainly a President declaring a national emergency.

This is not politics BTW.  Officials of both parties will be signing public safety orders of various types and they will be enforced for the common good.

[Shuffler]

The should treat every body like a gun.  Just assume it's loaded regardless of what the paper work says.

Holy crap.... did hell freeze over?

I agree completely. LOL

[TheBug]

Is Mutt a big dog or a little dog?

[CptTrips]

On the good news side, Italy is finally seeing some traction from their extreme quarantine measures:

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-04-05-20/h_38b2305e063290ed0cb34b29d48bae60

and it looks like the US numbers are ever so slightly bending down. Like by a hair.  I think we are seeing the beginnings of our quarantine measures.

Quarantine works.  It's how China got their problem under control (and we'll probably never know how large their problem really was).  It's worked in Singapore and Hong Kong.

However, that only holds for as long as you hold the quarantine.  The second you try and relax it, things start up again at exponential speed because that's how virus' work. 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/asia/hong-kong-coronavirus-quarantine-intl-hnk/index.html

Maybe more good news.

It could be noisy data, but maybe we are just starting to see some effects to our quarantine...

New cases:


New deaths:



Quarantines definitely work for as long as you can maintain them.  But the virus hasn't gone away.  It's just sitting there hoping to out-wait you then it's off to the races again. 

[hitech]

Graphs makes no sense to me, deaths should lag new cases.

HiTech

[CptTrips]

Graphs makes no sense to me, deaths should lag new cases.

Correct.  And it's only a one day decrease.  I'm not suggesting you can take that to the bank. 

However, it could also be that the "true" new cases has been already decreasing since the start of the quarantine, and the graphed new cases is just showing the effect of stepped up testing recording additional people who were already sick. 

There are a lot of moving parts.  We'll just have to see if the blip develops in to a sustainable trend. 

[TequilaChaser]

Well,.at least I don't have to do any of my monthly Doctors visits looking like August they told me today.....

And they will be delivering all my meds to the house, including my narcotics.....double yay!

[hitech]

However, it could also be that the "true" new cases has been already decreasing since the start of the quarantine, and the graphed new cases is just showing the effect of stepped up testing recording additional people who were already sick. 

This is what I would bet on , but Like we said be for we really need a random sampling of some area using both anti body and antigen test to be able to know what is going on.

In MHO this should be at the top of the lists of priorities. With a 1 - 10k sampling of an area of NY, a clear view would emerge. For all we know we could already be at 50% infected in some areas.

HiTech

[CptTrips]

Well,.at least I don't have to do any of my monthly Doctors visits looking like August they told me today.....

And they will be delivering all my meds to the house, including my narcotics.....double yay!

Heh.  Good! 

You know what I got in the mail yesterday?  A notice I had to go in and get my drivers license renewed in person.  I wasn't eligible to do it online again.

But I checked and there is a state decree that all drivers license expirations after Mar 13 are waived until further notice.   

Whew!  I couldn't imagine anything more like a scene from a Stephen King novel than having to go to the DMV during a pandemic. 

[Arlo]

Heh.  Good! 

You know what I got in the mail yesterday?  A notice I had to go in and get my drivers license renewed in person.  I wasn't eligible to do it online again.

But I checked and there is a state decree that all drivers license expirations after Mar 13 are waived until further notice.   

Whew!  I couldn't imagine anything more like a scene from a Stephen King novel than having to go to the DMV during a pandemic. 

I'm restricted to driving back and forth to the fridge.

[CptTrips]

This is what I would bet on , but Like we said be for we really need a random sampling of some area using both anti body and antigen test to be able to know what is going on.

In MHO this should be at the top of the lists of priorities. With a 1 - 10k sampling of an area of NY, a clear view would emerge. For all we know we could already be at 50% infected in some areas.

HiTech

Maybe.  I certainly would like both test as widely available ASAP.  Testing is cheap relatively speaking.  Testing at least is something we CAN do in the short term while waiting on a vaccine. 


I do wonder though.  I have seen reports of it mutating. (40 different mutations? )  I have seen reports of people testing positive for multiple strains simultaneously.  I have seen reports of people getting re-infected after recovering.  (Same strain?  Mutation?  Same infection just flared back up?)

So if you show anti-bodies for a previous strain, does that mean you are also immune to all all other and all future strains?

I'm sure the scientists are taking this into account but I'm curious.

[Eagler]

Hoping not to sound political as I don't want to be a mutt but I find the death count as mainly an incomplete reference to be used to keep us scared, uninformed and in our houses

Where is the data that shows what the age of the dead were?

What pre existing conditions did they have?

Are the majority half dead to start with?

What date did they feel sick?

What symptoms did they have?

When and where did they think they got it from?

How did the sickness progress?

When how many days before they were admitted to a hospital?

Did they go to ICU? Did they require a  ventilator?

From sick to dead how many days?

Also would like the stats on all of the recovered ones

Without facts and details one is left to trust some talking head who may or may not have an agenda

Has anyone found the above info anywhere?

I have not

The only thing the dead count does if provide a very vague reference to see if more or less are dying from one day to the  next and that is only if everyone is accurate in their reporting

<S>

Eagler

[hitech]

Maybe.  I certainly would like both test as widely available ASAP.  Testing is cheap relatively speaking.  Testing at least is something we CAN do in the short term while waiting on a vaccine. 

What I speak of could be done very quickly (like in days) with just 1000 random samples (think polling) antibody tests.  I believe I heard that an anti body test has been developed. And I'm not talking about the need to produce large quantities, then we  finally would have an accurate measure of the denominator.

I do wonder though.  I have seen reports of it mutating. (40 different mutations? )  I have seen reports of people testing positive for multiple strains simultaneously.  I have seen reports of people getting re-infected after recovering.  (Same strain?  Mutation?  Same infection just flared back up?)

If reinfection is possible, then there is not any hope for a vaccine. I had read some stuff about 2 possible strains. But any mutation (i.e. new strain) almost always cancels out any immunity.  The 40 mutation does not sound very plausible considering normal mutation virus rates.

HiTech


HiTEch

[Spikes]

Hoping not to sound political as I don't want to be a mutt but I find the death count as mainly an incomplete reference to be used to keep us scared, uninformed and in our houses

Where is the data that shows what the age of the dead were?

What pre existing conditions did they have?

Are the majority half dead to start with?

What date did they feel sick?

What symptoms did they have?

When and where did they think they got it from?

How did the sickness progress?

When how many days before they were admitted to a hospital?

Did they go to ICU? Did they require a  ventilator?

From sick to dead how many days?

Also would like the stats on all of the recovered ones

Without facts and details one is left to trust some talking head who may or may not have an agenda

Has anyone found the above info anywhere?

I have not

The only thing the dead count does if provide a very vague reference to see if more or less are dying from one day to the  next and that is only if everyone is accurate in their reporting

<S>

Eagler

This.