Covid 19 Prevention discussion ONLY

[redcatcherb412]

Your're confused and missing the point.

HCW (Health Care Workers)  Should have N-95 masks.   When there are all the N-95 mask the HCW need  and more available, everyone else should use them too.  In the meantime, for those that aren't HCW, a cloth mask offers better protection than breathing the virus directly down into your unprotected lungs.

But I would encourage you and your family not to use any masks at all if you and not comfortable.

You're a hoot trips, you post endless reams and reams of advice with links from all sorts of sources, post graphs endlessly sprinkled with your sage thoughts of the death to befall everyone, but one post of a scientific study that you don't agree with and your F-off attitude spills out. Like I said if folks feel better wearing a cloth mask for a 3% less chance of a hit, that's their choice and by all means use them.

Your childish response encouraging my family not to use anything is just that, childish. I'll keep your family out of it, but stooping down to your level, I will add, you should yourself personally use the 100% mask of saran wrap tightly wrapped around your face for no chance of any viral infiltration.

[Maverick]

Even though the relative age of folks in this area is shall we say, elevated, most are taking the threat seriously. The roads are virtually abandoned. It's like driving on Christmas morning / day because everyone is celebrating at home. Businesses are closed of course other than the essential ones. I hope the situation gets over fairly soon. I have a surgery I need to correct a painful trigger finger and my hair is now as long as it was when I was a teenager in HS. Far different color but it needs cutting.

Stores are getting stocked again and we were able to get everyth8ing we ordered this week. The wife kinda went crazy on buying groceries. Now we have to freeze a couple loaves of bread to keep them from going bad before I can use them.

[CptTrips]

First, I don't think I questioned anything in the study you posted.  I questioned the conclusion you drew from it.

Second, let me get this straight...You claim that cloth masks don't work and possibly increase your risk, and then complain when I suggest you don't use one if you are not comfortable with them.

You are acting irrational.

[TheBug]

And so it begins again....

[CptTrips]

Even though the relative age of folks in this area is shall we say, elevated, most are taking the threat seriously. The roads are virtually abandoned. It's like driving on Christmas morning / day because everyone is celebrating at home. Businesses are closed of course other than the essential ones. I hope the situation gets over fairly soon. I have a surgery I need to correct a painful trigger finger and my hair is now as long as it was when I was a teenager in HS. Far different color but it needs cutting.

Stores are getting stocked again and we were able to get everyth8ing we ordered this week. The wife kinda went crazy on buying groceries. Now we have to freeze a couple loaves of bread to keep them from going bad before I can use them.

That's good to hear.  We had trouble convincing our relatives that it wasn't all a media hoax.  Couldn't get them to agree to stop going to their crowded church services.  Thankfully their pastor decided to make the call and go virtual.

Still can't convince my uncle to wear a mask when he goes to the store.  Trying to convince him it is not about him being a tough guy, but him getting infected and then bringing that back to his wife, kids, and grandkids.

Like I tell a friend, this isn't like riding a motorcycle without a helmet. That is only your own melon you are putting at risk.  When you are dealing with an infectious disease, the irresponsible stuff you do put other peoples safety at risk without their consent.  And that in my opinion is immoral.

[hitech]

https://medium.com/@yinonweiss/lets-visualize-state-by-state-shutdown-effectiveness-on-covid-19-e13a5cdb50ad


At last an attempt at some real analysis.

Anyone else  notice the following attitude in the media?

We cant do anything until we have clinical proof of a method/drugs effectiveness.

Please show me study of the effectiveness of the stay at home orders, business closing vs other less intrusive methods.

We don't need to do that, it's common sense. 

HiTech
 

[CptTrips]

At last an attempt at some real analysis.

It's a reasonable attempt.

His model is pretty dependent on a very large bonus for warm weather given the data that has been emerging.  It's not entirely clear yet that is going to help:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddisalvo/2020/04/13/why-we-cant-trust-warm-weather-to-stop-coronavirus/#350842d62143

And the advantage of more rural states may not be what he thinks it is in the long run.  People still go to the closest Walmart for shopping.  On a weekend, the Walmart out by my land is just as crowded as any in DFW.  Rural people come from miles around to do their shopping.  Then on Sunday they all pile in to the local Baptist church to sit shoulder to shoulder and expel lots of breath singing hymns for 2 hours.

Or hang out with the ranching buddies at the local Dairy Queen for hours.

Their houses may be sparsely distributed, but humans are gregarious monkeys and tend to invent reasons to cluster often.

But it's certainly a reasonable discussion to have.  Some version of this will certainly be useful for the Governors to consider as they decide when to best lift quarantines in their individual states.

[hitech]

It's a reasonable attempt.

His model is pretty dependent on a very large bonus for warm weather given the data that has been emerging.  It's not entirely clear yet that is going to help:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/daviddisalvo/2020/04/13/why-we-cant-trust-warm-weather-to-stop-coronavirus/#350842d62143

And the advantage of more rural states may not be what he thinks it is in the long run.  People still go to the closest Walmart for shopping.  On a weekend, the Walmart out by my land is just as crowded as any in DFW.  Rural people come from miles around to do their shopping.  Then on Sunday they all pile in to the local Baptist church to sit shoulder to shoulder and expel lots of breath singing hymns for 2 hours.

Or hang out with the ranching buddies at the local Dairy Queen for hours.

Their houses may be sparsely distributed, but humans are gregarious monkeys and tend to invent reasons to cluster often.

But it's certainly a reasonable discussion to have.  Some version of this will certainly be useful for the Governors to consider as they decide when to best lift quarantines in their individual states.

The bigger advantage of rural I believe  is not density but that outsider do not mix into the population as much. I.E. DFW airport people who work their interact with many people who then interact with the area population.

Another may be the simple knowledge the residence have of who is who.

I grew up in rural Iowa btw.

HiTech

[CptTrips]

The bigger advantage of rural I believe  is not density but that outsider do not mix into the population as much. I.E. DFW airport people who work their interact with many people who then interact with the area population.

Another may be the simple knowledge the residence have of who is who.

I grew up in rural Iowa btw.

HiTech

There are certainly a lot less strangers out there.  I don't even know who is in the apartment next to me.  Not sure I've ever even seen them in 8 years.    But I know neighbors in a 5 mile radius of my property. 

On the on the other hand, a lot of my neighbors out there are long-haul truckers.  Criss-crossing the country all week long.    One even works at Lockheed making the hour commute each way.    

[hitech]

I don't even know who is in the apartment next to me. 

One day around 2003 I met a fair looking, at my local bar in Grapevine. We started talking and eventually I asked what part of town she lived in. She said the apartments off of Park Blvd, Oh said I, I also live there.  After multple narrow downs I find out we share a common bedroom wall (apartments are mirrored). And then even more strange was that we both had lived there more then 5 years and In all that time I never saw her coming or going.

HiTech

[Arlo]

One day around 2003 I met a fair looking, at my local bar in Grapevine. We started talking and eventually I asked what part of town she lived in. She said the apartments off of Park Blvd, Oh said I, I also live there.  After multple narrow downs I find out we share a common bedroom wall (apartments are mirrored). And then even more strange was that we both had lived there more then 5 years and In all that time I never saw her coming or going.

Probably due to no window in that wall. 

[bustr]

Bustr

Your comments sound like the  virus was humanly manipulated which can also be called weaponized

<S>

Eagler

In 2017 when the article was finally published, took 2 years to put together all of the test results in a paper after the testing stopped in 2015. The Chinese government was concerned with SARS-CoV outbreaks that have a 30% mortality rate. And they were very proud of their science sector and accomplishments. Allowing the recombination formula to be shown to the world was them showing how advanced China was in that science and SARS-CoV research. Recombining the more lethal 11 strains they found in the bat cave into chimeric versions allowed them a level of safety to more easily observe the ACE2 path the virus used to infect cells. AIDS\HIV uses the same vector and in 2005 Hydroxychloroquine\Chloroquine was tested and found to have salutary effects against HIV1. And in laboratory settings it was found to inhibit the ACE2 vector SARS-CoV used to infect human cells.

Honestly, I suspect a researcher screwed up and had a Lab boo boo and carried one of the less lethal chimera versions home with him. The parent 11 SARS-CoV found in the bat cave are not novel. COVID-19 is considered novel because it has never been seen before. But, by looking at it's DNA finger print it was traced to the horse shoe bats carrying the original 11 SARS-CoV variations in China. And how would anyone know about those horse shoe bats? The 2017 peer reviewed paper I linked becasue it's all there in scientific blue print form. If the CCP wanted to spread a virus they would have created a chimeric MERS virus and let the blame fall on the middle east since they have many military and diplomatic missions in that region. MERS has the same 30% mortality rate and is in the SARS family. But, it would have been easier to shut off the middle east than the Chinese who have direct flights now into the EU, Middle East, Asia and the USA. And with those direct flights, Chinese would carry it home to China and everywhere else leaving the Middle East to hold the bag so to say.

They had a Lab boo boo and won't admit it to save face.

[mora]

The New York numbers are just awful. At 552 deaths per million they are miles ahead of Spain and Belgium at 386 and 359 respectively. Calculating with a CFR of 0,5 %, the number of infected people would be two million or 10 % of the population. Infact more, as not all who are going to die have died yet. Is there a herd immunity in some communities by now? If yes, then there should be a drastic drop soonish.

[CptTrips]

Infact more, as not all who are going to die have died yet.

I doubt it.

Is there a herd immunity in some communities by now? If yes, then there should be a drastic drop soonish.

The numbers are dropping from quarantine, but I doubt we are anywhere close to herd immunity.  For the R0 I've seen estimates of 70-85% infection distribution required.

We can prove we are not at herd immunity it two ways.

1.  Get antibody tests out and determine if there is evidence 70% of people have already had it.

2.  Prematurely lift quarantine and send everyone back out and watch what happens.  If we are at herd immunity, infection rates shouldn't spike back up.

I recommend the former.   

[Eagler]

Much more than a boo boo but it is about saving face

Not for letting it lose but against those that have been insulting their cultural ...stopped here to avoid slipping into politics...

Eagler