Hi,
That information is interesting, and seems to make sense, but it also seems to be in conflict with almost every other source I've seen.
The graph below shows the curve for USA Excess Mortality through 2020. The website defines Excess Mortality as follows.
Excess mortality is a term used in epidemiology and public health that refers to the number of deaths from all causes during a crisis above and beyond what we would have expected to see under ‘normal’ conditions. In this case, we’re interested in how deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic compare to the average number of deaths over the same period in previous years.
Excess mortality is a more comprehensive measure of the total impact of the pandemic on deaths than the confirmed COVID-19 death count alone. In addition to confirmed deaths, excess mortality captures COVID-19 deaths that were not correctly diagnosed and reported as well as deaths from other causes that are attributable to the overall crisis conditions.
This image shows shows excess mortality peaking at 40% above the previous 5 year average. This is in contrast to the data published by a medical student in Johns Hopkins newsletter cited in the OP.
The data for the graph I've posted can be compared with other countries and the raw data, as well as the method of calculation is available here:
https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covidAs a disclaimer, I've only just begun to look at this, as interesting as it is, and I'm not making any claims. I'm just providing an alternative source from the UK office for national statistics for comparison. The website link above allows you to make comparisons with other countries and appears to offer full transparency. It also seems to compare more consistently with a wide variety of other sources.
If I were to look for reasons to explain the conflict with the Johns Hopkins source, differences in the "New data" due to how deaths are being classified, seems to be an obvious first check and that would also seem to be the most likely source for conspiracy theories, as already noted in this thread.
Bottom line, I think I'd rather play Aces High today than try to check... A couple of new rides are screaming out for some serious cockpit time
Kind regards
Badboy