Interesting Death Rate Report

[FLS]

The group of people most likely to die from the wuhan virus are the same people who are most likely to die without the virus.  In other words they are the group of people most likely to die in any given year.

What the article points out is simply that we should expect to see virus deaths increasing the  average yearly death toll. The CDC data used for the study isn't showing that but it is showing a decrease in the usual primary causes of death.

That there is a viral disease making people sick is not in dispute. The question is the actual fatality rate caused by the virus because every death that tested positive or met guidelines without a positive test for the virus is considered a virus death under current guidelines.

Answering that question requires good data and an understanding of how death is coded when there is more than one cause.

It's a good question to answer because the costs of shutting down require a benefit.

[guncrasher]

I guess the black helicopter thing must be so yesterday.  Makes me feel old.

- oldman (I know, I know....)

used to live in Charlotte NC back then, a thousand black helicopters out at night spying on citizens without making a sound.  those are the good days.


semp

[NatCigg]

The group of people most likely to die from the wuhan virus are the same people who are most likely to die without the virus.  In other words they are the group of people most likely to die in any given year.

What the article points out is simply that we should expect to see virus deaths increasing the  average yearly death toll. The CDC data used for the study isn't showing that but it is showing a decrease in the usual primary causes of death.

That there is a viral disease making people sick is not in dispute. The question is the actual fatality rate caused by the virus because every death that tested positive or met guidelines without a positive test for the virus is considered a virus death under current guidelines.

Answering that question requires good data and an understanding of how death is coded when there is more than one cause.

It's a good question to answer because the costs of shutting down require a benefit.

Let's not get lost in the data and draw inaccurate conclusions. Each case that paints the graph would need to be examined to see how that individuals life was influenced. The numbers dont add up as it should in theory.  That is interesting, and the author is correct that more research is needed. Also, this virus is not even one year old. And with the changes in our culture, relevant behaviors have been dynamic.  Hopefully this virus is diminished to the point it is not deadly unless you were about to die anyway.

 

[MORAY37]

Well, this thread was staffed by careful, thinking adults having a pleasant exchange..... until it wasn't. 

Locked IN the morning.



 

[MORAY37]

Because the virus was designed in a lab to do all of that to people. You guys act so smart, but then write off the fact that it was manipulated from some bat 500 miles in the China forrest, brought to lab by scientist. We would have never had this virus if not for the global health mafia building these viruses is sketch places like China.

You act like Iceland has even close to the same amount of people, cities, and living qualities than Americans. Its pretty easy to dictate to 400K people to stay inside. America has 350M people all doing different things, living in different areas.

I keep seeing the same excuse from all of you. If only 'those damn kids' weren't running around spreading the virus. If only we could keep the sheep locked in their house, THEN the virus will stop. Its such bologna. Government agencies never closed, public transportation never closed. MIT did a study proving thats one of the main carriers of the virus. "Well we can't shut those down because people still need to do stuff." "Stuff" thats more important than your livelyhood. SO MAKE UP YOUR DAMN MINDS.  I can't go to a mom and pop restaurant in a small town for breakfast but I can go to McDonald's with a line a mile long. Get the point?

That's why this virus is so great for yall, which magically does everything we've never seen before (but don't worry, China who hates us didn't do nuthin!) . All of your totalitarian control freaks can create policies to control people, cheat in elections, and ruin their lives to bring in their agenda. Its pathetic. As far as I'm concerned all of your "scientist" can do F themselves with their globalist fraud scam money.

There is so much cognitive dissonance in just these few lines that unraveling it would require an expensive plush leather couch I can't afford and four advanced degrees I don't possess.
 
It must be either a hobby or a pastime of yours to get threads locked.  How do you still have forum privs?

[MORAY37]

That depends on what curve you are referring to...

I am speaking of the one that was going to kill over 2 million in the US if we did not kill the economy first..

https://www.cato.org/blog/how-one-model-simulated-22-million-us-deaths-covid-19

I think that one was flattened quite well

Eagler

Eagler I will respond to you before this thread gets closed. I appreciate the respectful conversation, as well. 

The issue with how you see the flattened curve is the problem that there isn't one covid-19 virus, there's two.  SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2, which originated from -1. The original virus, -1, came out of China (and no, it was not engineered in a lab.  We crazy biologists actually know how to check the genetic makeup and can see if they are naturally evolved or engineered) and spread to Europe and the West Coast of the US.  The second, -2, mutated in Europe to include a protein that made it easier to infect human cells.  That's the primary causal virus of the worst case sickness.... it tends to have a much higher viral shed rate from person to person, and needs less to infect you.  -1, you need a pretty significant amount of virus to get infected... think someone sneezing in your face.  For -2, if you pass through a doorway that an infected person exhaled at 2 minutes prior, you're likely to be exposed to the ~1,500 virus threshold to get infected. 

-2 ended up in New York, while -1 tried really hard everywhere else to do something, but it just didn't have the virulence factor.  Speaking evolution, it was weaker.  Shutting down New York limited the possibility for -2 to get out, and it didn't, really, until we opened up.  That's when it moved out of the northeast and took over as the primary SARS virus, out-competing its' progenitor by orders of magnitude for the right to nestle in our cozy lungs.   From what research I've seen, it's the only one now.... nobody seems to find naturally occuring SARS-CoV-1 now.... only 2, with the protein mutation.   

Technically, we bent the curve down, but we really are still only in the first wave.  CoV-1 had a pretty free reign on most of the country, but wasn't able to really infect many people, because it wasn't equipped with the same protein.  CoV-2 was bottled up in New York, and infected/killed a whole lot of people.... but didn't get out until we relaxed things.  We relaxed while that virus still had a sustained reservoir of spread, both symptomatic and asymptomatic.  Then it was allowed out during summer, which is generally a poor time for a virus to spread (everyone is outside and we don't tend to be personally close to strangers).... and now you have an unmitigated disaster unfolding, with winter bringing everyone inside again.  Immunologists will be studying this for decades.  We actually did a pretty good job at the beginning....although it wasn't by design.  We isolated the virus that had a higher virulence, while we ignored the other one....  But, that brought our guard down too early.....and now we have the exact case study that your referenced model was portraying: uncontrolled logarithmic spread .  I'm not saying we're looking at tens of millions... but I think over a million Americans dead might be baked into the cake right now.  I truly hope that doesn't come to pass.... but with the way this country is acting, I am entirely pessimistic.

If you read nothing else, read these next lines. The next few weeks are not going to be good.  There are really big warning signs with the healthcare system in this country.  I would be cautious to the extreme through January/February, and possibly until the weather breaks, and people aren't all stuck inside and breathing on each other.  If you are one of the unlucky people, right now, who get the worst case scenario of full blown COVID-19 requiring a ventilator, you're entering a health care system on the brink of fundamental collapse.  The act of being put on a ventilator FOR ANY REASON, puts a human being at a 40% mortality.... and that goes up with a strained healthcare system. The nurses qualified to run a COVID ward have been doing 6 12 hour shifts a week for almost a year.  They are burnt out, and they're dropping like flies.  Many have had enough.  My close friend working in a major hospital can't count how many people she's watched die the same way: gasping for every breath.  3, 4 in one shift at points.  That's not fake, and they're all Americans.  We should be doing better.

I would truly not be surprised to see 3500 to 4000 deaths per day by Christmas. Per day, every day for a prolonged period of time. We are on the worst possible path, when looking at the rates of infection:hospitalization:deaths as you can possibly be with a respiratory virus. You absolutely, unequivocally do not want to be going on a ventilator in the next 6-10 weeks.  Not that you EVER would.... but really, really not this winter.

Best of luck, to you and yours <S>

[NatCigg]

Eagler I will respond to you before this thread gets closed. I appreciate the respectful conversation, as well. 

The issue with how you see the flattened curve is the problem that there isn't one covid-19 virus, there's two.  SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2, which originated from -1. The original virus, -1, came out of China (and no, it was not engineered in a lab.  We crazy biologists actually know how to check the genetic makeup and can see if they are naturally evolved or engineered) and spread to Europe and the West Coast of the US.  The second, -2, mutated in Europe to include a protein that made it easier to infect human cells.  That's the primary causal virus of the worst case sickness.... it tends to have a much higher viral shed rate from person to person, and needs less to infect you.  -1, you need a pretty significant amount of virus to get infected... think someone sneezing in your face.  For -2, if you pass through a doorway that an infected person exhaled at 2 minutes prior, you're likely to be exposed to the ~1,500 virus threshold to get infected. 

-2 ended up in New York, while -1 tried really hard everywhere else to do something, but it just didn't have the virulence factor.  Speaking evolution, it was weaker.  Shutting down New York limited the possibility for -2 to get out, and it didn't, really, until we opened up.  That's when it moved out of the northeast and took over as the primary SARS virus, out-competing its' progenitor by orders of magnitude for the right to nestle in our cozy lungs.   From what research I've seen, it's the only one now.... nobody seems to find naturally occuring SARS-CoV-1 now.... only 2, with the protein mutation.   

Technically, we bent the curve down, but we really are still only in the first wave.  CoV-1 had a pretty free reign on most of the country, but wasn't able to really infect many people, because it wasn't equipped with the same protein.  CoV-2 was bottled up in New York, and infected/killed a whole lot of people.... but didn't get out until we relaxed things.  We relaxed while that virus still had a sustained reservoir of spread, both symptomatic and asymptomatic.  Then it was allowed out during summer, which is generally a poor time for a virus to spread (everyone is outside and we don't tend to be personally close to strangers).... and now you have an unmitigated disaster unfolding, with winter bringing everyone inside again.  Immunologists will be studying this for decades.  We actually did a pretty good job at the beginning....although it wasn't by design.  We isolated the virus that had a higher virulence, while we ignored the other one....  But, that brought our guard down too early.....and now we have the exact case study that your referenced model was portraying: uncontrolled logarithmic spread .  I'm not saying we're looking at tens of millions... but I think over a million Americans dead might be baked into the cake right now.  I truly hope that doesn't come to pass.... but with the way this country is acting, I am entirely pessimistic.

If you read nothing else, read these next lines. The next few weeks are not going to be good.  There are really big warning signs with the healthcare system in this country.  I would be cautious to the extreme through January/February, and possibly until the weather breaks, and people aren't all stuck inside and breathing on each other.  If you are one of the unlucky people, right now, who get the worst case scenario of full blown COVID-19 requiring a ventilator, you're entering a health care system on the brink of fundamental collapse.  The act of being put on a ventilator FOR ANY REASON, puts a human being at a 40% mortality.... and that goes up with a strained healthcare system. The nurses qualified to run a COVID ward have been doing 6 12 hour shifts a week for almost a year.  They are burnt out, and they're dropping like flies.  Many have had enough.  My close friend working in a major hospital can't count how many people she's watched die the same way: gasping for every breath.  3, 4 in one shift at points.  That's not fake, and they're all Americans.  We should be doing better.

I would truly not be surprised to see 3500 to 4000 deaths per day by Christmas. Per day, every day for a prolonged period of time. We are on the worst possible path, when looking at the rates of infection:hospitalization:deaths as you can possibly be with a respiratory virus. You absolutely, unequivocally do not want to be going on a ventilator in the next 6-10 weeks.  Not that you EVER would.... but really, really not this winter.

Best of luck, to you and yours <S>

Interesting story.

Why do we not treat people until it to late?

Was not the virus spread around the country in March? Why so focused on new york?

Where are the n95 masks?

If a virus evolves in a labs petri dish is that not still natural evolution?  Will be interesting to see how this virus made two giant leaps within months, then stabilizes.

Would be nice if all our folklore could be consolidated to truth.

That's probably the biggest problem,  a lack of truth from top to bottom.

[NatCigg]

If you are one of the unlucky people, right now, who get the worst case scenario of full blown COVID-19 requiring a ventilator,

Full blown covid?  Is not the virus all but gone when at that stage?  Also, have we not learned a ventalator can actually kill a sars patient? That co2 levels are not elevated and lung function is retained better than initially assumed? Have we not learned to limit viral reproduction so the immune system does not cause as severe damage?

I really hope our over worked health system is not missing out on knowledge and treatments.

[Eagler]

Moray

One of many confusing statements is the one you repeated about how this will be a "dark winter" - a very corrupt politicians exact words - because the cold will send us all inside where we have a better chance of catching covid...

But isn't that exactly what they have been telling us all along?

To stay home and have everything delivered?

Now how is this going to expidite the infection rate when we have been told such action would reduce it?

Is the 2nd version of this - the more contagious one- a weaker strain than the first?

I thought I heard it was determined to be but everyone tells you something different everyday.

Eagler

[NatCigg]

Moray

One of many confusing statements is the one you repeated about how this will be a "dark winter" - a very corrupt politicians exact words - because the cold will send us all inside where we have a better chance of catching covid...

But isn't that exactly what they have been telling us all along?

To stay home and have everything delivered?

Now how is this going to expidite the infection rate when we have been told such action would reduce it?

Is the 2nd version of this - the more contagious one- a weaker strain than the first?

I thought I heard it was determined to be but everyone tells you something different everyday.

Eagler

I think they assume if you stay home you will not have human contact, therefore you will not spread the disease. This of course, is not a bulletproof method.  Taking the virus out of the population would do more.

Unfortunately, no authority in the us is actively removing the virus from the population.

Sars cov 1 was the original SARS some 13 years ago.  Sars 2 came out of China last year.  The European variation was discovered different than the original wuhan virus.  Since then, many varieties have been found.

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/no-evidence-infectious-coronavirus-mutation-ucl-genomic-covid19/

[Shuffler]

DmonSlyr and his ilk are reason why the USA never got the spread of the virus under control. Also there was no national plan leadership put forward by the "war time" commander in chief.

You ignorance of the US is amusing.

Stopping folks from coming into the states from infected areas was the right thing to do. It was voted down by folks who want open borders.

[NatCigg]

You ignorance of the US is amusing.

Stopping folks from coming into the states from infected areas was the right thing to do. It was voted down by folks who want open borders.

And all along I thought they had more personal motives.  Hmm.

Better get out of here before the boss shows. You know how he thinks of us getting off topic.

[DmonSlyr]

There is so much cognitive dissonance in just these few lines that unraveling it would require an expensive plush leather couch I can't afford and four advanced degrees I don't possess.
 
It must be either a hobby or a pastime of yours to get threads locked.  How do you still have forum privs?

It's a hobby of mine to expose Bullcrap. That's what I like to do.

I've already seen Chinese scientist risking their and their families lives to prove the virus was manipulated in a lab. Do you still believe the lie it was found in wet market?

The fact that you give China a pass means i do not trust what you have to say. You are pushing an agenda like the rest of them.

FLS exposes how they will not even post the correct #s because it doesn't fit their agenda/narrative. Now why is that?

Amazing how scientist use the communist method of control to SAVE THE WORLD. Thats where we are today. Never ever done this before in history.

You make all of these excuses. Welll, it would have slowed the curved BUT...

People wearing the mask still get sick but...

People staying at home still get sick but...

Closing down restaurants will prevent people from getting sick, but people are still getting sick so....

This virus does everything it needs to do to force totalitarian control on the people. You dont find that strange?

How do you know dark forces aren't running around spreading it in places on purpose to continue their agenda?

If only we did this, if only we did that.

Biggest fallacy of the year.

99.9% survival rate. No one is scared any more and I'm tired of watching people lose everything because "scientist" claim that's what we should do.

They still have 0 data to back any up any of their totalitarian claims.

I'm tired of it.

[Eagler]

No agenda here

https://youtu.be/7ILTTL8HNMk

Eagler

[MiloMorai]

You ignorance of the US is amusing.

Stopping folks from coming into the states from infected areas was the right thing to do. It was voted down by folks who want open borders.

There was still 60,000 or so that came in from China and east coast airports were packed like sardine cans with people coming back from Europe and other places to beat the ban. The 3 stages for opening up went the way of the dodo pretty quick with urging from the "war time" commander in chief.