Author Topic: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season  (Read 4382 times)

Offline Eagler

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #30 on: October 02, 2022, 07:36:15 AM »
You still haven't clued in, have you. It is suble changes over time.

Sure it is or is it just the greatest boogeyman yet?

An undefined ever changing target with ever changing rules and regs to fight it with no real score card to see if you are winning or losing...and more power for those who make the rules...while they break the rules themselves that they enforce on their subjects..

Ain't buying it..

Eagler
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Offline bj229r

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #31 on: October 02, 2022, 08:18:16 AM »
Isn't it about time for the annual global-warming-science-study-vessel to get stuck in the unexpected heavy ice near the South Pole?
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Offline -gg-

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #32 on: October 02, 2022, 09:29:34 AM »
Back to the OP.

They predicted an above average hurricane season and it's well below average.

No doom and gloom. There never is.

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Offline oboe

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #33 on: October 02, 2022, 09:38:24 AM »
Correction - there have been 9 named storms. 4 have become hurricanes.

Average season is 14 named storms and 6-10 hurricanes.

The OP article has them predicting 14-21 named storms and 6-10 hurricanes.


I guess climate change relaxed a little this year. No doom and gloom and nothing out of the ordinary is happening. Period.

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/noaa-adjusts-hurricane-season-forecast#:~:text=An%20average%20hurricane%20season%20produces,is%20not%20a%20landfall%20forecast.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season#:~:text=For%20the%202022%20hurricane%20season%2C%20NOAA%20is%20forecasting,NOAA%20provides%20these%20ranges%20with%20a%2070%25%20confidence.

Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, are predicting above-average hurricane activity this year — which would make it the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicts a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.


Your criticism may be premature. 

NOAA predicted with 70% confidence that there was a 65% chance of an above normal season and a 25% chance of a near-normal season.   The season runs from June 1st to November 30th, so its only 2/3rds completed.  They predicted 3-6 category 3 or higher hurricanes; there have been 2 (Fiona and Ian), with 1/3 of the season remaining.   One more and they land within their predicted range of 3 to 6 category 3+ hurricanes.   And if they are correct on the number of severe hurricanes while the total number of named storms is lower than they expected, what does that say about the trend toward more severe storms?   (It reinforces the idea that storms are becoming more severe).

I'm not rooting for more storms so they are proved right; in fact I think with their stated confidence interval of only 70% and then allowing a 25% chance for a near normal and 10% for below normal, their prediction seems to have all the bases covered no matter what happens.   Which means it's not very useful prediction in the first place.   But I do appreciate NOAA's storm tracking and warning abilities.   I'm glad we have them.

<S>




     

Offline -gg-

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #34 on: October 02, 2022, 09:52:02 AM »
More to the point is that the OP likes to post things like that and point to climate change as the cause. Everything's going to hell because climate change!

I know they're not going to be 100% accurate or even close in their predictions. But the OP posted what they said because he thinks it will show how bad the climate is getting because of man-made global warming.
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Offline Arlo

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #35 on: October 02, 2022, 10:08:23 AM »
At this point I'm not sure if you're posting about your opinion on climate or your opinion of the op.  :headscratch:

Offline bj229r

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #36 on: October 02, 2022, 10:15:45 AM »
How much warming has there been since the 1880's (when we first started measuring  global temps) and now? Must have been a lot
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Offline -gg-

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #37 on: October 02, 2022, 10:28:22 AM »
And there's the busybody. Doing what he does best.

« Last Edit: October 02, 2022, 10:41:47 AM by -gg- »
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Offline Arlo

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #38 on: October 02, 2022, 10:37:09 AM »
And there's the busybody. Doing when he does best.

What, noticing that you're more into making attacks on Milo than addressing his post? If you think he's wrong then stick to the subject matter.

Offline RotBaron

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #39 on: October 02, 2022, 10:46:44 AM »
How much warming has there been since the 1880's (when we first started measuring  global temps) and now? Must have been a lot

Oh no! Try not to upset them with critical thinking and logic, it interferes with their ability to completely angle from the emotional side. E.g. Polar bears on a tiny ice sheet seemingly in the middle of the ocean…
They're casting their bait over there, see?

Offline Arlo

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #40 on: October 02, 2022, 10:48:05 AM »
Oh no! Try not to upset them with critical thinking and logic, it interferes with their ability to completely angle from the emotional side. E.g. Polar bears on a tiny ice sheet seemingly in the middle of the ocean…

'Them' ... 'their' ... ?

Offline -gg-

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #41 on: October 02, 2022, 10:53:17 AM »
The easiest thing to do is just to look at history. Has global warming been bad or good? I mean, there's not even a question that warming has been a good thing. There are far more good things that came from warming than bad. Far more. Yet they spin everything to try to tell us we're "past the tipping point" and that everything is getting bad and we're all gonna die unless we start paying up.

It's all nonsense.

There's not one thing happening that's been anything but normal. Normal climate and weather changes. And the simple facts will show that every time the planet cooled, things died off. When the climate warmed -even to the point that there was much more Co2 and  most of the world's climate was a tropical furnace - life was more abundant on land and in the seas.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2022, 11:23:38 AM by -gg- »
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Offline Chris79

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #42 on: October 02, 2022, 11:13:52 AM »


Chuikov

Offline Rich46yo

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #43 on: October 02, 2022, 11:32:37 AM »
Don Lemon is an imbecile. There is absolutely no supporting data that there are more hurricanes now then in the past. No worse ones.

Carbon emissions probably have something to do with global warming but if there even is global warming the connection is unproven. The earth has always gone thru cycles of heating up and cooling down. Certain large glaciers in the polar region have been increasing in size in recent years, animal populations are stable or increasing, the Polar bear population is very healthy.

This entire climate change thing has become not a science but a Political tool the leftwit media and very rich environmental mob have linked their careers to. Guys like John Kerry, the Climate Czar, given the title because his wife, the Ketchup Queen, donates major $$ to the Democrat party and all those Liberal causes. She bought him the title cause he needs to get out of the house and she provides him with the carbon spewing private jets he zooms around the world in to tell us serf's what terd's we are for using carbon spewing vehicles.

This movement has taken on a life of its own with very little actual science to back it up, and all the while the rich are getting richer because they are the ones in place to cash in on the Policy's they are spouting.
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Offline Arlo

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Re: NOAA predicts above-normal 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season
« Reply #44 on: October 02, 2022, 12:39:55 PM »
... with very little actual science to back it up ...

Really? No, seriously?  :O