Pop goes the market

[DmonSlyr]

Again (as explained in a previous thread), it doesn't matter what MU has done in the past.  The market doesn't care.  What matters now is future guidance.  Demand is dropping and Micron is going to have an over-supply sitting on their shelves.  That is value locked up in inventory and not returned to investors.  Likely significant price drops will be need to clear that excess stock.  That's less profits.  We are in a risk-off era now  Any company showing likely challenges in the next year are risk-off.  If there are better investments available, money will move out of MU and into something else.  The market doesn't owe MU any loyalty.  It's business.

Just because you lose money on a stock pick, doesn't mean there is some dark international conspiracy.  You just made a bad stock pick (for the near term).  So hold onto it.  It will eventually come back, but maybe not for a year or two.

https://www.yahoo.com/now/why-micron-stock-down-181858030.html#:~:text=of%20last%20year.-,Why%20Is%20Micron%20Stock%20Down%3F,supply%20growth%20in%20fiscal%202023

Yes, that is for the entire tech industry really along with uncertainty in China markets. That being said, doesn't explain why MU should have a 6 PE while AMD has a 24 PE when MU has a far better net profit and profit margin and will still have a better EPS than AMD by almost double.

[CptTrips]

Yes, that is for the entire tech industry really along with uncertainty in China markets. That being said, doesn't explain why MU should have a 6 PE while AMD has a 24 PE when MU has a far better net profit and profit margin and will still have a better EPS than AMD by almost double.

I don't understand what you  are getting at. 

MU had better numbers than AMD and didn't go down as much as AMD.  They all go down because of the difficult guidance they are all projecting forward.  Maybe investors think AMD has better forward prospects than MU (regardless of their past performance).  Sorry if the market didn't behave exactly as you think it should.  You better get used to that if you are going to continue investing.

Exactly who do you think is manipulating MU down unfairly, how are they doing it, and why?  The Illuminati? Reptilians?

[DmonSlyr]

I don't understand what you  are getting at. 

MU had better numbers than AMD and didn't go down as much as AMD.  They all go down because of the difficult guidance they are all projecting forward.  Maybe investors think AMD has better forward prospects than MU (regardless of their past performance).  Sorry if the market didn't behave exactly as you think it should.  You better get used to that if you are going to continue investing.

Exactly who do you think is manipulating MU down unfairly, how are they doing it, and why?  The Illuminati? Reptilians?

I certainly think there are bigger forces at play running the market. Hell I saw 30M volume on a stock with a 3M float avg 200k 90 day volume only go up .85 cents after it has sold off 70% on the year. I don't think anything makes since in this market. All I am pointing out is that valuations aren't being considered in this current market sell-off.

[Eagler]

As just about everything else today is corrupt and manipulated why would one think the market wasn't also?

It's always been big money taking the pocket change of the little money ppl imo

Eagler

[CptTrips]

As just about everything else today is corrupt and manipulated why would one think the market wasn't also?

It's always been big money taking the pocket change of the little money ppl imo

Eagler

The Fed manipulates markets in the aggregate.  They manipulate whole asset classes at a gross resolution.  They did not decide to manipulate MU specifically because they found out DmnSlayer had bought shares.

So you tell me:  Who manipulated MU? How? and why? 

If you can say it is manipulated because it goes down, can I say it is being manipulated if it goes up?

The street had estimated their forward EPS at $2.42.  Now MU is admitting that it might be as low as $1.43.  And that is non-GAAP.  "Real" numbers (GAAP) are probably going to be even worse.  Non-GAAP is basically "how far can I lie without actually going to prison" numbers.  -42% doesn't seem out of line given what MU is likely to be facing over the next year and the current risk-off sentiment.  I don't give a fig what their historical numbers were.  The only thing that matters is how much money will they make me going forward.

If you think the street is so wrong on MU, fine.  Buy more.  Go all in.  Sell the house.  Buy on margin. 



Assuming that every time you lose money on a stock pick that there must be dark, mysterious conspiracies that caused it, is like accusing anyone who shoots you down in the arena of being a hack.
 

[CptTrips]

BTW...

The street estimated EPS at $2.42.  MU is now admitting it might be as low as $1.43 (probably even lower).  That's around 41% drop in EPS from the consensus.

MU share price is down 42% YTD.

Yeah.  Definitely Reptilian Illuminati.

[Eagler]

I am not talking specific companies I am speaking of the entire market

Eagler

[CptTrips]

I am not talking specific companies I am speaking of the entire market

Eagler

Then on that we can agree.  Overall asset class valuations are manipulated by the Fed easy money.

DmonSlayer was insinuating that for some reason MU was being manipulated unfairly relative to AMD.  There is nothing I see that would support that claim.

MU's 41% projected drop in EPS (probably going to be even worse) seems to reasonably support a 42% drop in their current share price.

If you tell me you are going to make me 40% less money than you thought at the beginning of the year, then I am going to view your shares as 40% less valuable to me than I thought at the beginning of the year.

Seems pretty reasonable given the current and projected circumstances.  No need to look for dark sinister forces out to get MU specifically.




 

[guncrasher]

remind me of gamestop, now that was being manipulated like hell and a couple of others.

semp

[CptTrips]

remind me of gamestop, now that was being manipulated like hell and a couple of others.

semp

By manipulated you mean a bunch of people on Reddit decided to go buy the stock at pretty much the same period time.

I don't call that manipulation.  I call that poor investing. 

Is it manipulation when a bunch of people go buy Tesla all at the same time when some new model announcement comes out? 
If an investing club discuss a stock at their meeting and all the members decide to go home and buy some on pretty much the same day, is that manipulation?

Just buying and selling stock in whatever quantities or timespan (assuming no insider information) doesn't seem like manipulation to me.  How would I ever prove I'm buying a lot of a stock because I just like it vs trying to manipulate the price?  Buying and selling alone can't be the definition of manipulation.



To me, manipulation is blatant insider trading,  significant misrepresentation of the financials or an attempt to hide materially adverse information concerning the company's viability.  Shorting a stock and then publicly spreading false rumors to drive the price down.

Gamestop was just stupid Reddit Apes being stupid Reddit Apes.  Apes are gonna ape.  Most lost their butts on that.



 

[CptTrips]

[Peanut1]

I am so thrilled to see people loosing their rear ends. I have never once nor will I ever be negatively affected by bs stock market chit. In fact, my work provides necessary goods and services that have actual value unlike 92% of the American workforce. Live like a piss on and you'll be pissed on.

[CptTrips]

I am so thrilled to see people loosing their rear ends. I have never once nor will I ever be negatively affected by bs stock market chit. In fact, my work provides necessary goods and services that have actual value unlike 92% of the American workforce. Live like a piss on and you'll be pissed on.

You must be a blast at parties.   

[Eagler]

I am so thrilled to see people loosing their rear ends. I have never once nor will I ever be negatively affected by bs stock market chit. In fact, my work provides necessary goods and services that have actual value unlike 92% of the American workforce. Live like a piss on and you'll be pissed on.

Where do you think pensions and 401ks are?

It's more than just the richest getting richer with their spare change...it's the retirement $$$$ for the majority of us

Eagler

[CptTrips]

Not sure what the market will do in the short term.  In the medium term, IMHO, we'll see SP 3000 before we see 4000 again.

I think forward guidance in the coming earning season is going to be more meaningful than the earnings themselves.