Author Topic: Spy ballons.  (Read 7524 times)

Offline Maverick

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Re: Spy ballons.
« Reply #45 on: February 04, 2023, 08:48:46 AM »
1.1 million people live in Montana but I guess you don't care if the wreckage of a vehicle the size of 3 city buses were to kill one of them.

Way more than that live in other cities in other states, but you know that. Other states have population densities far higher than Montana where it would be far harder to drop a balloon on open ground, but you know that also. Try to not be so pedantic.
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Offline Dadtallica

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Re: Spy ballons.
« Reply #46 on: February 04, 2023, 08:55:46 AM »
Way more than that live in other cities in other states, but you know that. Other states have population densities far higher than Montana where it would be far harder to drop a balloon on open ground, but you know that also. Try to not be so pedantic.

Just to confirm… you’re ok with someone dying over it?

It should have been dealt with way before it entered airspace over land.
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Offline RotBaron

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Re: Spy ballons.
« Reply #47 on: February 04, 2023, 09:10:31 AM »
1.1 million people live in Montana but I guess you don't care if the wreckage of a vehicle the size of 3 city buses were to kill one of them.

Proactive action would not have let it cross from over water to US soil…

Many of us here understand how/why that happened, however based on many of your previous comments I imagine you will find excuses why it was allowed to become problematic.
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Offline icepac

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Re: Spy ballons.
« Reply #48 on: February 04, 2023, 09:16:18 AM »
If they are going to shoot it down, it should be done by the least capable interceptor in the inventory…….or vulch it right before it lands.

Offline CptTrips

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Re: Spy ballons.
« Reply #49 on: February 04, 2023, 09:22:02 AM »
Not sure what the jingoistic panic is about.  This seems laughably low tech.  Almost SteamPunk. 

What about this is more frightening than the hundreds of other countries spy satellites that over fly our country multiple times a day? Why is a balloon a bigger threat than a satellite?

It’s operating at an altitude far above commercial traffic as far as I know.  Doesn’t appear to be a threat to navigation. There is no evidence of it being a weapon system. 

It is operating at an altitude in the ballpark of what our U2 and SR71 operate which we’ve flown over other countries more ties than can be counted.

The US has been promoting the Open Skies doctrine for decades.  It’s been our belief that the ability of nations to surveil each other leads to more stable peace.  It reduces the odds of a miscalculation based on fears an adversary is preparing for a first strike against them.  It should be in our and China’s interest that we can surviel each other.  That’s what we’ve been telling other countries for decades.

Strangely, there does not appear to be any established internationally agreed upon upper limit on sovereign airspace.  We claim ~60k ft but China claims all of the South China Sea.  Claiming something doesn’t make it reasonable.  We extend our territorial waters 12 mi off shore horizontally.  Based on that, a reasonable sovereign airspace limit might be 12 mi above the surface vertically.  That’s right about where this thing is drifting I believe. 

It’s certainly a gray enough area that we should refrain from blowing stuff up unless it is posing an immediate threat.  By our own standards we shouldn’t care if we are survielled.  I think we should have treaties defining an agreed upon airspace limit before we start shooting stuff down.  What if China wants to claim that space shuttle and ISS overflights of it’s country are threat?  What if they claim their airspace extends 200k miles? 

It seems to me that the current course of action is the most prudent.  Track it.  Monitor it.  Have to ability to destroy it if it becomes a threat.  Otherwise avoid knee-jerk overreaction.

Believe me, I hate the Chinese government.  They do plenty I think is beyond the pale.  This just doesn’t seem to rate very high up my list.  Thankfully, those charged with our national defense are a little more prudent than some of our chest-thumping internet whack-jobs.
 
Is there some piece of information I am missing?
 

« Last Edit: February 04, 2023, 09:24:35 AM by CptTrips »
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Offline Eagler

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Re: Spy ballons.
« Reply #50 on: February 04, 2023, 09:58:31 AM »
Yes the unknown purpose of such a flight

As it could be anything lets act like it is nothing as that is the easiest course of action...not surprised

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Offline CptTrips

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Re: Spy ballons.
« Reply #51 on: February 04, 2023, 10:06:10 AM »
Yes the unknown purpose of such a flight

Our military has determined it is a surveillance balloon.  I suspect they have better information about it than you do.

As it could be anything lets act like it is nothing as that is the easiest course of action...not surprised

It is not being treated as it is nothing.  It is being tracked and monitored.  If it was determined to be an actual threat, it would be dealt with. 

It is being treated as a third world spy satellite.  That is the proper reaction at the moment.  If the situation changes, the stance can change.


[edit]
Anything more than that and we would need to explain why we felt free to fly U2 and SR71 over other countries at similar altitudes.

 
« Last Edit: February 04, 2023, 10:15:41 AM by CptTrips »
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Offline Nefarious

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Re: Spy ballons.
« Reply #52 on: February 04, 2023, 10:55:35 AM »
It's kind of similar to what I've learned and read on Sputnik. I'm sure there were people who felt like it wasn't a threat either but present day textbooks (or at least those of the mid 90s) memorialized it as one of the highest points of the red scare.

This is kind of different when it comes to the fact it can be seen with the naked eye and I'll admit I was kind of shook when I saw it in a news video Thursday evening.

There must also be a flyable computer available for Nefarious to do FSO. So he doesn't keep talking about it for eight and a half hours on Friday night!

Offline Eagler

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Re: Spy ballons.
« Reply #53 on: February 04, 2023, 11:00:58 AM »
Then let's send one over china and don't stop there Russia needs a spy balloon from us too..it's all the latest craze you know..

Let's see what they do when their airspace is invaded

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Offline -gg-

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Re: Spy ballons.
« Reply #54 on: February 04, 2023, 11:10:22 AM »
If they are going to shoot it down, it should be done by the least capable interceptor in the inventory…….or vulch it right before it lands.

I don' think we have any aircraft that can get close to that altitude.
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Offline CptTrips

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Re: Spy ballons.
« Reply #55 on: February 04, 2023, 11:11:27 AM »
Then let's send one over china and don't stop there Russia needs a spy balloon from us too..it's all the latest craze you know..

Let's see what they do when their airspace is invaded


You're not even making sense now.  Just emotional over-reaction.

We don't need jury-rigged, steampunk balloons.  We fly spy satellites over their territory 20 times a day. 

What's next?  Rickshaw pulled tanks?   :rofl

And what about U2 an SR71 flights we've made at similar altitudes?

I'm not saying it shouldn't be carefully monitored.  I'm saying it doesn't justify shooting at the current moment.


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Offline CptTrips

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Re: Spy ballons.
« Reply #56 on: February 04, 2023, 11:21:47 AM »
This is kind of different when it comes to the fact it can be seen with the naked eye and I'll admit I was kind of shook when I saw it in a news video Thursday evening.

Like Sputnik could be seen with the naked-eye.  It's just a fad uninformed overreaction.  It's jsut something unusual for the internet whacks to get jiggy about.  If you told people we have detected a spy satellite over-flying our country, they would just yawn.

In fact most spy satellites can also be seen with the naked eye if you know where and when to look in the morning or evening sky where they catch the sun against a dark sky.  As they move across the terminator into the Earth's shadow they fade out.  There is software you can download that will tell you where and when to look to spot them.  Some are communication, some are weather, some are suspected spy satellites.

I started that hobby while waiting for skies to fully darken to use the telescope.  It's amazing how many satellites you can spot if you know where and when to look on a given evening.  99.999% of people never bother to look up and watch.   

Sooner or later  the news will move on to some culture war outrage and this will be forgotten by the unwashed masses.

« Last Edit: February 04, 2023, 11:25:34 AM by CptTrips »
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Offline Eagler

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Re: Spy ballons.
« Reply #57 on: February 04, 2023, 11:40:34 AM »
CptTrips did you catch the comet?

Any pictures if you did?

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Offline CptTrips

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Re: Spy ballons.
« Reply #58 on: February 04, 2023, 11:47:06 AM »
CptTrips did you catch the comet?

Any pictures if you did?


Nope.  Too damn cold. ;)

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Offline Nefarious

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Re: Spy ballons.
« Reply #59 on: February 04, 2023, 11:58:25 AM »
Like Sputnik could be seen with the naked-eye.


Could or Couldn't?

I'm well aware that satellites can be seen and used to keep an ISS tracker app on my phone years ago, it also had other satellites if I remember correctly.

I had to google about Sputniks visibility, from what I quickly read, there were some accounts of people seeing the soviet rocket motor/booster that carried Sputnik. But the much much  smaller satellite was very difficult to see even in the best conditions with optics.
There must also be a flyable computer available for Nefarious to do FSO. So he doesn't keep talking about it for eight and a half hours on Friday night!