Ukraine War Thread

[CptTrips]

I’m curious as to what’s is the endgame for the United States here?

I think the strategic thinking is pretty well outlined in the Zeihan video I linked earlier.
https://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/index.php/topic,406880.msg5388718.html#msg5388718

The assumption is that Ukraine is no more the end target than was Chechnya, or Georgia, or Crimea.  Putin's end goal is to extend his territory until it reclaims the geographically defensible choke points controlled by the previous Soviet Union. 

Unfortunately that means that the next targets will be NATO allies (Poland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc)  which we are bound by NATO treaty to defend will American troops.  That has a higher chance of causing a nuclear exchange than having Ukraine defeat them.

Our end game in Ukraine is to either help the Ukrainians stop them cold there in their territory, or help them kill and destroy enough of the Russian offensive capability that they might have to take another decade to recover and refit for the next stage of their plan of conquest.

If they have to take a decade to lick their wounds, a lot of things could happen in that time that might avert a larger catastrophe.  They might have a change in government that is more interested in making money doing business with the West instead of invading them.  Look at WWII Germany vs the stable rule-of-law post war Germany.

If they don't pause, then at least the Ukrainians have degraded enough of the Russian military that is will be even easier for us to destroy them when they move on to Poland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc.  That means less American deaths later.



 

[-gg-]

The base thread is actually good. It has gone off the rockers a bit and that is bad. Well.... more than a bit actually.

The point of the thread was to point anyone interested to the Ukraine War thread on ICOM. For people interested in following the latest developments, which Rabbidrabbit has been reporting on since the war began.

https://icecreamonmars.com/index.php?thread/1230-ukraine-war-thread/

OP knew we could not discuss much over here but he wanted to link the thread for those interested in following the developments as they come in from various sources.

[DmonSlyr]

I think the strategic thinking is pretty well outlined in the Zeihan video I linked earlier.
https://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/index.php/topic,406880.msg5388718.html#msg5388718

The assumption is that Ukraine is no more the end target than was Chechnya, or Georgia, or Crimea.  Putin's end goal is to extend his territory until it reclaims the geographically defensible choke points controlled by the previous Soviet Union. 

Unfortunately that means that the next targets will be NATO allies (Poland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc)  which we are bound by NATO treaty to defend will American troops.  That has a higher chance of causing a nuclear exchange than having Ukraine defeat them.

Our end game in Ukraine is to either help the Ukrainians stop them cold there in their territory, or help them kill and destroy enough of the Russian offensive capability that they might have to take another decade to recover and refit for the next stage of their plan of conquest.

If they have to take a decade to lick their wounds, a lot of things could happen in that time that might avert a larger catastrophe.  They might have a change in government that is more interested in making money doing business with the West instead of invading them.  Look at WWII Germany vs the stable rule-of-law post war Germany.

If they don't pause, then at least the Ukrainians have degraded enough of the Russian military that is will be even easier for us to destroy them when they move on to Poland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc.  That means less American deaths later.

They have no intention to take over those countries. They simply don't want more of them with Nato assets. These countries should be peaceful and provide a barrier not have weapons facing Russia. Comparing what Putin wants to do vs what Hitler did is a big stretch.

[CptTrips]

They have no intention to take over those countries.

I hear they have no such plans to invade Ukraine either.  Or so they said last February.
 
So lucky we can believe what they say.

[Chris79]

I think the strategic thinking is pretty well outlined in the Zeihan video I linked earlier.
https://bbs.hitechcreations.com/smf/index.php/topic,406880.msg5388718.html#msg5388718

The assumption is that Ukraine is no more the end target than was Chechnya, or Georgia, or Crimea.  Putin's end goal is to extend his territory until it reclaims the geographically defensible choke points controlled by the previous Soviet Union. 

Unfortunately that means that the next targets will be NATO allies (Poland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc)  which we are bound by NATO treaty to defend will American troops.  That has a higher chance of causing a nuclear exchange than having Ukraine defeat them.

Our end game in Ukraine is to either help the Ukrainians stop them cold there in their territory, or help them kill and destroy enough of the Russian offensive capability that they might have to take another decade to recover and refit for the next stage of their plan of conquest.

If they have to take a decade to lick their wounds, a lot of things could happen in that time that might avert a larger catastrophe.  They might have a change in government that is more interested in making money doing business with the West instead of invading them.  Look at WWII Germany vs the stable rule-of-law post war Germany.

If they don't pause, then at least the Ukrainians have degraded enough of the Russian military that is will be even easier for us to destroy them when they move on to Poland, Romania, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc.  That means less American deaths later.

Other then the previously linked video, have you viewed or listened to any other media pertaining to Mr. Zeihan?

[CptTrips]

Other then the previously linked video, have you viewed or listened to any other media pertaining to Mr. Zeihan?

He has his detractors, but I think he is dead on in this.

Putin has already recently started mentioning in speeches that the Baltic States really should belong to Russia after all based on history.  He had been saying the same thing about Ukraine before that invasion.

Poland certainly believes Putin is coming for their territory as well.  They have doubled their defense spending and are buying everything in sight that goes Booom!
They plan to double the size of their military in the next 10 years.  They are preparing for full scale war with Russia.


And the idea that Putin wants to re-establish, not the Soviet Unions political structure, but it's territorial boundaries is pretty much an accepted thought in Western military planning.
It's not something Zeihan just made up himself.

[Eagler]

Mr Z is selling the Russian NATO take over story for his benefit imo

If Putin can't take corrupt Ukraine does anyone truly believe he's going to try to invade a NATO backed country?

Our war mongering leaders are wringing their investment hands at the thought though

Eagler

[GasTeddy]

They have no intention to take over those countries. They simply don't want more of them with Nato assets. These countries should be peaceful and provide a barrier not have weapons facing Russia. Comparing what Putin wants to do vs what Hitler did is a big stretch.

Take a look around, what kind of propaganda official Russian channels are spreading about their neighbors and many others, and of course NATO. Everybody's nazi, even Astrid Lindgren.

In Russian TV there are talks about Novorossiya from Vladivostok to Iberian peninsula, returning back to mother Russia every independent country which has some time in history been part of Russia, what kind of persecution of Russians are going around the world etc. And big part of population there believes every world they see and hear. "It has to be true as I saw it in news..."

My country of origin has 1340 km border wit Russia and where I live now, Ukraina is not far. Here in Europe, we see things bit different way than those on the other side of an ocean. We have all the reasons to be worried.

[RotBaron]

GasTeddy:

Can you provide sources for your assertions, I’d be genuinely interested in reading them as an alternative to US “news”.

One of your points is Russian media telling them they are being persecuted. Actually they are, besides all the obvious, I see things happening online in international forums and websites I participate in where Russians (citizens) are being discriminated against and the war in Ukraine is not even a related topic (nor discussed) to the online community…

[CptTrips]

Take a look around, what kind of propaganda official Russian channels are spreading about their neighbors and many others, and of course NATO. Everybody's nazi, even Astrid Lindgren.

In Russian TV there are talks about Novorossiya from Vladivostok to Iberian peninsula, returning back to mother Russia every independent country which has some time in history been part of Russia, what kind of persecution of Russians are going around the world etc. And big part of population there believes every world they see and hear. "It has to be true as I saw it in news..."

My country of origin has 1340 km border wit Russia and where I live now, Ukraina is not far. Here in Europe, we see things bit different way than those on the other side of an ocean. We have all the reasons to be worried.

Well, Eagler would suggest you negotiate away your country at the first sign of fighting.

Of course that is easy for him to say comfortable in his Baca lounger in Florida, when russian(spit) tanks aren't rolling into his town.

But NATO and the West are always in the wrong and putin(spit) is always in the right.  At least that appears to be his position.

[Eagler]

Putting more words in my mouth CptTrips lol

But have to wonder why Europe is still buying Russian oil if they fear the war will spread to them..

Are we the world's police or not?

I think we shouldn't be but others must believe the opposite

I think we are involved just to keep value in our bloated fiat dollar actually while replacing our aging war inventory while some are getting wealthy in the process...saving Ukraine is secondary

Eagler

[CptTrips]

Putting more words in my mouth CptTrips lol

I don't need to.  It's clear where your sympathies lie.

But have to wonder why Europe is still buying Russian oil if they fear the war will spread to them..

Because there is no point in cutting off your nose to spite your face.  Instead they took a clever approach.  We will continue to buy your petrol, but we're all agreeing to only pay you half the market rate.  Russia whined and stamped their feet, said they would never agree, and then quietly continued selling at the cap because they are desperate and need the cash.  It still better to get half than nothing.

Now that the heating season is almost over, it's time to tighten the noose more.  A total gasoline ban has just started.  The sanction so far are just now starting to bite (it takes a while).  It's going to get soooooooo much worse over the next few months.



Yeah, make it hurt.  Stick it in and twist it.

Next we need a total and complete blockade of of all travel and products in or out of russia(spit), including food or medicine.

Sanction them into the stone age.  Until they are running around in animal skins with wooden spears, eating their own children for food. 

Then tighten sanctions further.

The beauty of it is, the pain can stop at any moment they choose.  Simply withdraw back to their borders.

[GasTeddy]

GasTeddy:

Can you provide sources for your assertions, I’d be genuinely interested in reading them as an alternative to US “news”.

One of your points is Russian media telling them they are being persecuted. Actually they are, besides all the obvious, I see things happening online in international forums and websites I participate in where Russians (citizens) are being discriminated against and the war in Ukraine is not even a related topic (nor discussed) to the online community…

Use Google, here some examples:

https://www.w3newspapers.com/russia/    https://tass.com/      http://en.kremlin.ru/     http://government.ru/en/news/ 

https://twitter.com/RT_com   https://sputniknews.com/   https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64543618

What comes to that persecution of Russians, guess what ignited them. And they are not killed en masse, sent to prison without charges or anything like that, what is claimed in propaganda.

Putin started this propaganda war already more than decade ago. For example, now there has been concentration camps and crematories in Karelia where Finnish nazis have killed thousands of Russian during WW2 according to official truth, despite the fact no trace of them was found by Soviets after the WW2.

[CptTrips]

Use Google, here some examples:

You forgot the dreaded "Jewish Nazi Gay Demons".   

[Eagler]

Wondering then should congress declare war on Russia?

We are at war aren't we?

Let's officially war and get on with it..

Boots on the ground next .. Let's get the next 20 year war started

Sooner it begins the sooner...2043 maybe...it can end..

Go CptTrips go!

 

Eagler