Author Topic: DeepSeek  (Read 1216 times)

Offline CptTrips

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DeepSeek
« on: January 27, 2025, 12:32:01 PM »
In case you didn't notice, the tectonic plates of the Earth just shifted a little.  Where this leads, who knows.

Note while it's live this link won't work yet.
[ Invalid YouTube link ]

Standard link:
https://www.youtube.com/live/nLOvJ9alKGM?si=1vOQgB9aieWH-dB8





Letting the Chinese take the lead in AI, is WAY worse than having let the Soviets take the lead in the Space Race early on.



« Last Edit: January 27, 2025, 12:44:16 PM by CptTrips »
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Offline AKIron

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Re: DeepSeek
« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2025, 12:42:58 PM »
Interesting times.
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Offline CptTrips

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Re: DeepSeek
« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2025, 12:51:47 PM »
Interesting times.

You misspelled End-Times.  ;)


Buckle-up Buttercups.

Who ever reaches true General Purpose AI shall rule the world. 

Well, briefly, until the AI just takes over. ;)

It's learning the human super-powers of lying and deceit. ;) 







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Online nopoop

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Re: DeepSeek
« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2025, 01:22:41 PM »
I tried. I nodded off...
nopoop

It's ALL about the fight..

Offline CptTrips

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Re: DeepSeek
« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2025, 01:32:47 PM »
I tried. I nodded off...

I understand it isn't quite as exciting as Jewish Space Lasers lighting up LA.  But possibly more impactful over time.

:D
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Offline Eagler

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Re: DeepSeek
« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2025, 02:30:54 PM »
They had a surprise ending last time, just starting sooner this time..so glad the Cia confirmed it yesterday lol



Be very surprised if the bottom does drop out in the next 2 years,  4 at the most..

Eagler
« Last Edit: January 27, 2025, 02:35:35 PM by Eagler »
"Masters of the Air" Scenario - JG27


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Offline CptTrips

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Re: DeepSeek
« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2025, 03:09:42 PM »


NASDAQ down 3% today.   It's just the start I think.  :rofl  And those AI tech companies were holding up over half the stock market valuations just amount those (7?) companies.

A lot of companies relying on massive hardware investments to reach the promise of AI  are maybe massively over-valued if China can do it better at a fraction of the cost.  A LOT of re-pricing is going to have to be done in light of a new reality.

Also, we were going to rely on controlling access to the highest end AI chips and keeping them from China to slow them down in the AI space.  That up-ends a lot of plans if they can just by-pass that with cheaper more common chips.

Making it open source was brilliant move to win market share.  I would have never trusted it otherwise.  There will be armies of experts pouring over the code to makes sure there are no nefarious gremlins lurking in the code.



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Offline DmonSlyr

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Re: DeepSeek
« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2025, 04:07:23 PM »
Of course this gets rolled out right before earnings for major AI stocks. I lost 25% today in both VRT and CLS, what a over reaction... guess I'll be buying more though since they'll likely beat this week.
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Offline CptTrips

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Re: DeepSeek
« Reply #8 on: January 27, 2025, 04:23:11 PM »
Of course this gets rolled out right before earnings for major AI stocks. I lost 25% today in both VRT and CLS, what a over reaction...

Well, sorry you lost money.  You might lose more, but you won't be alone if that's any consolation.

But just because you lost money doesn't make it an "overreaction"  necessarily.

The overreaction may have already been on the valuation side of these companies being bid up to insane levels of earnings multiples on the hopium of AI.  This may merely be repricing down to more realistic levels give the now known competition and it's likely effects on future earnings.


Feels like a Sputnik moment.




« Last Edit: January 27, 2025, 04:25:38 PM by CptTrips »
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Offline Gman

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Re: DeepSeek
« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2025, 04:44:30 PM »
I think I must have seen 100+ Sputnik references today.

I do wonder what the REAL cost of developing DS was.  I have huge doubts that the Chinese are being forthcoming about the resources actually put into Deepseek.  Anything involving the PRC should be called "Deep-Cheat" IMO.  Not saying it's vaporware or anything like that, but it's more than obvious that this has been timed to dis-incentivize investment in US/Western AI. 

Interesting times though.  I do think that nVidia's valuation has been high and a correction for whatever reason was probably inevitable. 

Maybe this will make getting a hold of a 5080 or 5090 GPU at launch in the next few days easier at least, ha ha.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2025, 04:55:08 PM by Gman »

Offline CptTrips

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Re: DeepSeek
« Reply #10 on: January 27, 2025, 04:54:46 PM »
I think I must have seen 100+ Sputnik references today.

It's an obvious parallel.


I do wonder what the REAL cost was.  I have huge doubts that the Chinese are being forthcoming about the resources actually put into Deepseek.  Anything involving the PRC should be called "Deep-Cheat" IMO.

That would be my first reaction.  That's why I think open sourcing it was brilliant.  If it underperforms or contains malware, that will not be able to be hidden when open sourced.

I haven't seen one expert, including their competitors, claim there is anything that looks fake.  I guess they would know what they are looking at. 

Actually the Chinese may have done us a favor.   If their tech checks out, that could save us trillions of dollars we were about to shell out on advanced hardware\chips for the AI Race.
Trust but verify, but this may upend the last 5 years of infrastructure planning for the big race.

It would be like the mistake of pouring all your resources into super expensive mega capital battleships in WWII only to realize that tech is not really relevant anymore and CV's are the real source of power.

Suck for those companies who have already invested billions in the wrong chips or companies that thought they were going to have a hardware\chip corner on humanities new game-changing tech market.

Possible a really big historic paradigm shift.

We'll see.










« Last Edit: January 27, 2025, 04:58:00 PM by CptTrips »
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Offline Gman

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Re: DeepSeek
« Reply #11 on: January 27, 2025, 04:56:20 PM »
It's an obvious parallel.


That would be my first reaction.  That's why I think open sourcing it was brilliant.  If it underperforms or contains malware, that will not be able to be hidden when open sourced.

I haven't seen one expert, including their competitors, claim there is anything that looks fake.  I guess they would know what they are looking at. 

Actually the Chinese may have done us a favor.   If their tech checks out, that could save us trillions of dollars we were about to shell out on advanced hardware\chips for the AI Race.
Trust but verify, but this may upend the last 5 years of infrastructure planning for the big race.

It would be like the mistake of pouring all your resources into super expensive mega battleships in WWII only to realize that tech is not really relevant anymore and CV's are the real source of power.

Solid points.  I was speaking to the true cost/resources, that's where I think there is some BS being spread, as I said, I doubt it's vaporware or not performing as advertised so far.

Maybe they just some of the work that the Stargate program had $$$ earmarked for, for us.  We'll see soon enough.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2025, 05:00:59 PM by Gman »

Offline CptTrips

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Re: DeepSeek
« Reply #12 on: January 27, 2025, 05:11:19 PM »
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asml-sinks-china-ai-startup-081823609.html

Ooooffff.  That's going to leave a mark. 

Another -50% and it might be approaching realistic valuation. ;)

Yes that is a massive drop, but it was INSANELY overpriced before.  This feels healthy to me.

Well, healthy for the markets overall, maybe not for NVIDIA investors. ;) 

Yes, corrections to rational values are long term healthy and needed in this market.  Like you need occasional wild fires to clear out the underbrush and dead wood.


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Offline CptTrips

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Re: DeepSeek
« Reply #13 on: January 27, 2025, 05:49:55 PM »
...failed edit.
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Offline DmonSlyr

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Re: DeepSeek
« Reply #14 on: January 27, 2025, 06:15:22 PM »
Well, sorry you lost money.  You might lose more, but you won't be alone if that's any consolation.

But just because you lost money doesn't make it an "overreaction"  necessarily.

The overreaction may have already been on the valuation side of these companies being bid up to insane levels of earnings multiples on the hopium of AI.  This may merely be repricing down to more realistic levels give the now known competition and it's likely effects on future earnings.


Feels like a Sputnik moment.

They are a bit over-valued for sure,  CLS more fairly than the others, but losing 3 months of gains in 1 afternoon is getting freaking ridiculous... I don't know why anyone would want to use AI from freaking China in the first place. Isn't it going to heavily censored and manipulated anyway?

I'm hoping we see a bounce back. Probably an excuse and buying opp for large firms/institutions to get in cheaper after 100b investment announcement.

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2014 & 2018 KoTH ToC Champion