Author Topic: Concorde Crash Theory.. Anyone have debunk info on this stuff?  (Read 483 times)

Offline Toad

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This just came in over E-Mail from a pilot friend.

Anyone have any "urban myth" sites that debunk this scenario? Like was the French President really sitting there waiting to cross in a 747 or not?

Anyway... here's what I got:


Subject: Concorde crash?

Interesting post from a friend.  Of interest to airline types and perhaps others.  Delete at will.

Don't know where the guy gets his info from however so I can't vouch for the accuracy of the article.
 

"Subject: Interesting post on Concorde crash

the real story follows

In a message dated 4/10/02 11:59:16 AM, RonBlake@aol.com writes:

In recent weeks there has been some discussion regarding accident investigations on this board. One of the ten commandments of accident investigation is that you never
fall in love with a theory. Now we all know that the Emery crash in SAC was caused by cargo shift.

Right?

Wrong. Mechanical failure in a flight control   We all also know that the Concorde crashed because it hit a metal strip from a CAL DC10 that was deposited on the runway.

Right?

Wrong.  I prefer the swiss cheese theory of accidents where the holes line up in the various barriers to prevent accidents and when they do line up there is the accident,over the Boeing chain of events but whichever you subscribe to this will follow either.

Hole number one: The airplane had been in maintenance prior to this flight and maintenance kinda sorta forgot to put a critical spacer in the LMLG truck. ( we will get to this later).

Hole number two: The airplane is sitting at the gate. It is a few pounds over gross, roughly 16,000, and the CG is near the aft limit.

Hole number three: The V1 speed for the weight is 199K. Now we get to the runway and off we go. As the airplane accelerates it begins pulling to the left, oh yes the spacer was there to keep the trucks from swiveling.

Hole number four:  As they barrel down the runway the airplane's LMLG hits a runway edge light stantion. Guess where the stantion goes? You got it right into the left fuel cell and punctures it and starts a fire. Now you ask why didn't the captain just abort the takeoff?

Hole number five:  Sitting on a taxiway waiting to cross the runway is a 747 with the French president and his wife aboard. The captain now has a choice. He can try to abort and plow into the 747 or he can try to fly.

Hole number six:  He decides to fly and rotates at 188 knots, 11 knots below V1.

Hole number seven:  So now you are having a really bad hair day. You are in an over gross airplane with the CG going farther aft by the second because of the fuel loss, you are behind the power curve big time. What can make the day worse? ( By the way for all intents and purposes they were already dead before the next aw toejam).

Hole number eight:   The friendly helpful flight engineer decides, on his own without consulting the captain, to shut down an engine he THOUGHT was on fire. Now your day really is as bad as it gets the airplane is behind the power curve anyway and now you have an engine shut down when you are below VMCGAir. The airplane rolls over on its back and crashes into a hotel.

Now you know why we don't fall in love with theories, or jump to conclusions, based on initial assessments."
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen!

Offline Daff

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Concorde Crash Theory.. Anyone have debunk info on this stuff?
« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2002, 07:12:51 PM »
I've seen this one before and seen it debunked too, but it's 1 am here and I can't be bothered to look for the links.
 I seem to recall it was some 'aviation expert' mainly looking for some media-exposure.

Daff

Offline Gadfly

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Concorde Crash Theory.. Anyone have debunk info on this stuff?
« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2002, 07:49:15 PM »
KISS is the overriding principle.  It is simple to tie together disparate facts and make them conform to a conclusion, but the truth usually lies with the simplest answer.

Offline Hangtime

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Concorde Crash Theory.. Anyone have debunk info on this stuff?
« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2002, 08:45:02 PM »
Occams Razor.

The fediddleer shaves close, too.
The price of Freedom is the willingness to do sudden battle, anywhere, any time and with utter recklessness...

...at home, or abroad.

Offline Dinger

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Concorde Crash Theory.. Anyone have debunk info on this stuff?
« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2002, 09:24:43 PM »
Yes Toad, I saw this about a year ago.  Its source is (I think) a Guardian (UK) article that is a piss-poor example of journalism.

First the spacer: yes, it was missing, and was documented as such starting with the preliminary accident report.  Previous accident investigations on flights originating from Paris have found fault with incompetent French ground maintenance (THY DC-10 anyone?), so why would they observe a maintenance failure, evaluate it, and then decide it was no factor in the crash?

Second, the weight limit: Yes, the plane was overweight at the gate.  Wanna guess how much overweight the plane was and how much fuel the aircraft burned getting to the runway?
The CVR transcript is available.  They calculated fuel and weight right before takeoff.  And guess what? It was at the limit.

Three and Four: all the evidence we have shows the  engine catching fire before the A/c started to pull to the left.  The french have put the images of the runway tracks online.  So the stantion is a myth.  Asymmetric thrust is a more probable explanation for the swerve to the left anyway.

Five: I haven't seen this challenged.  According to claims I've read the still photo of the Concorde taking off in flames came from the plane in question.

Six: I suspect someone's mixing Vs here.  The CVR transcript has V1 called out _before_ the incident.  Yes, the aircraft left the ground 11 knots too slow.  But, gee, the aircraft's past V1, running out of runway, and swerving towards other aircraft.  Does it even matter to the pilot that the French head of state is on the thing? What choices did he have?

Seven: no "hole"

Eight: Yes, an engine was shut down in a situation where it shouldn't have been.  I don't remember clearly, but I think on the CVR Capt. Marly calls for it.  And it happens well before the aircraft finally crashes.

Now the other story:

Concordes have had a history of tires exploding and damaging the aircraft, including puncturing fuel tanks.  This one took off with winds calm at the upper weight limit (and hence at the CG limit).  A tire exploded and puncture a fuel tank, which sprayed fuel into the engine and started a nasty fire.  Now you've got an aircraft with a sudden drop in power on one side and a nosewheel tearing up the tarmac (yes, you can see the photos of the rut and the streaks of the tires going sideways).  After V1, the pilots' only hope to avoid a catastrophe was to go up.  They shut down the engine that was reported to be on fire, which certainly didn't help them gain any airspeed.  The fire burned on the wing, knocking out systems until the plane departed.


It's a pretty poor conspiracy theory, almost as bad as TWA 800.  For a good conspiracy theory, consider the Valujet crash, where the investigators were given a plane that had some serious electrical problems (dry arcing anyone?), including a power failure on the landing immediately preceding the flight, which was then resolved by ground crew duct-taping the circuitbreakers open. And those guys settled for having an oxygen bottle get knocked loose.

Offline Creamo

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Concorde Crash Theory.. Anyone have debunk info on this stuff?
« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2002, 09:58:44 PM »
For a good conspiracy theory, consider the Valujet crash, where the investigators were given a plane that had some serious electrical problems (dry arcing anyone?), including a power failure on the landing immediately preceding the flight, which was then resolved by ground crew duct-taping the circuitbreakers open. And those guys settled for having an oxygen bottle get knocked loose.

lol, what?

Offline Dinger

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« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2002, 01:29:15 AM »
Like I said creamo, for a good conspiracy theory.  Just do a search on +valujet +"circuit breaker" (or +circuitbreaker).  I didn't say it was the truth; I just said it's a hell of a lot more plausible than this.
Actually, for some really good stuff, do +Itavia +Ustica
evidently a bomb in the toilet destroyed the plane, although shortly before the plane went down, USN, French AF, Italian AF fighters turned off their xponders.  And a Phantom DT was found floating near the debris field.  Oh yeah, and the wreckage of a Libyan MiG-21 was found in Calabria 3 weeks later (and the Italian head of intelligence admitted that they "delayed" the publicization of the wreckage discovery).

Offline Creamo

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Concorde Crash Theory.. Anyone have debunk info on this stuff?
« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2002, 02:30:12 AM »
Oh, I get you now.  Was confused.

Well I found some guy ranting –


Did the FAA and the NTSB know how DANGEROUS the INSULATION of aircraft wire can be when exposed to an 'ELECTRICAL FIRE?' Yes they do!!
I refer to Airworthiness Directive (Docket No. 95-NM-131-AD; Amendment 39-9565; AD-96-07-15; McDonnell Douglas Model DC-9, DC-80, and MD-90-30 Series airplanes. . . .61 FR 16377 dated April 15, 1996---before the crash of VJ 592. That AD was prompted by reports of chafed and shorted wires that resulted in SMOKE emanating from the cockpit 'OVERHEAD SWITCH PANEL' . . .The actions specified by this AD are intended to prevent the potential for FIRE and UNCONTROLLED SMOKE throughout the cockpit, as a result of chafing and shorting in the electrical wire bundles! Effective date May 15, 1996. The AD was written April 15 and was effective May 15, 1996.
Couple this with a VJ mechanic HOT WIRING two circuit breakers on VJ 592 and you have just setup VJ 592 for a tragedy. On the CVR the pilot's voice was recorded saying, "we got an electrical problem." The co-pilot's voice was recorded as "yes, the battery's charger is trying to kick in." Does this sound like the NTSB's wild theory of 'JOSTLED 02 CANISTERS' starting to explode causing the fire?


First you said the crew “ductaped circuit breakers open”. That is what struck me funny as hell. Does some magnetic force suck them back in?! What does that have to do with anything? Anyway-

The Oxygen generators that started the fire burn like sunsasqueakes. Blazing heat thousands of degree’s make a real smoke hazard when exposed to wire insulation indeed. Not to mention control cables and structure.
Anyone that could actually believe a mechanic would “hotwire” circuit breakers… well, don’t know what to say. I guess, but why in the hell would you do that?

I only recal that wreck from memory and lotsa mtx bulletins and warnings near shipping about oxygen generators, but it makes hella sense. I think a tire fell on them, starting the box of generators to activate and they are 300#+, so it stands to reason.

Actually, the only CB related story I remember is a crash site recovery guy stole some for a souvener. The FBI really fuct him up for it rightfully so.

Offline Dinger

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Concorde Crash Theory.. Anyone have debunk info on this stuff?
« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2002, 03:31:54 AM »
For completeness, here's the NTSB report on maintenance to the Valujet plane prior to the accident.

What you see with Valujet is what you see with so many other plane crashes.  People take bits of the story (like "The French President's plane was waiting to cross" and "The spacer was missing") and construct an elaborate conspiracy.
Air disasters are particularly susceptible to this becuase they happen so rarely.  When a plane goes down, it's usually due to an unbelievable combination of freak circumstances.  So the explanations are hard to swallow for most people.

Yeah, with Valujet, if one of them O2 bottles went off, it was over.  But from looking at this and a few other of the valujet incidents (like the one where they reset the WoW circuitbreakers on final, causing the spoilers to deploy and blowing all the tires.  In that case, it was determined that the flightcrew's decision to troubleshoot yadda yadda yadda; what's scary is that this was a relatively routine problem), electrical problems were a matter of course.
Anyway, from my ignorant perspective: aircraft maintenance as a whole is pretty good; but some airlines do a better job of maintenance than others, and somehow I suspect it's related to how many, how skilled and how well treated those maintenance folks are.  Nobody intentionally does a bad job, but fatigue, inexperience/incompetence, and low morale have a measurable effect on what gets done.
I've flown American Airlines, and I've flown Tower Air, and guess which one I only flew once?  I ain't qualified to evaluate the work of a jet doctor, but I certainly can see that when 20% of the sealtbelts of a 747 are installed backwards (and pinned to prevent the problem being corrected), something's up.  Then when we cross the Atlantic in August at 20,000 feet (I kid you not -- at the very least they could have turned off the GPS readout in back), I sorta wonder...

1.6.6 Maintenance
On May 9 and 10, 1996, the autopilot on the accident airplane was written up by
flightcrews three times for “porpoising.”52 In the May 9 write-up, the corrective action statement
indicated that a complete checkout of the autopilot system was performed in accordance with the
maintenance manual, and that the system was determined to be “normal” during an operational
check. The first of two write-ups on May 10 indicated that the autopilot was porpoising in cruise
flight at flight level 330. The corrective action recorded for this discrepancy was to remove and
replace the autopilot pitch computer. Later that day, the autopilot was described as “porpoising
at all altitudes.” At that point, the autopilot system was assigned to the minimum equipment list
(MEL),53 and placarded as inoperative.
During the flight from DFW to Atlanta on the morning of the accident, the crew
wrote up the cockpit interphone (the service interphone allowing voice communication between
flight attendants and the pilots) as being inoperative. Before departing from Atlanta, a mechanic
removed and replaced the center pedestal handset. After connecting the new handset, the system
was checked, and it still failed to operate. The inoperative interphone was then assigned to the
MEL. According to ValuJet’s FAA-approved MEL for the DC-9, the following operational
procedure was required for the interphone system: “May be inoperative provided: a) alternate
normal and emergency operations procedures are established and used; and b) the passenger
address system is operative.”
On the day of the accident, the airplane was delayed in departing the gate at
Atlanta for the flight immediately before the accident flight because the right auxiliary hydraulic
pump circuit breaker popped. After examining the pump, cleaning the cannon plug pins, and
reconnecting the cannon plug, a mechanic was able to reset the circuit breaker without any
further difficulty.
During the flight from Atlanta to Miami, the public address (PA) system stopped
functioning. According to passengers on that flight, the flight attendants used a megaphone to
communicate with the passengers while the airplane remained airborne, but discovered during
the taxi to the gate that the PA system was once again operable. A SabreTech mechanic
52 Dynamic pitch changes, either induced by pilot input or the autopilot, resulting in an up and down movement
of the airplane’s nose.
53 The MEL lists items of aircraft equipment that may be deferred when inoperable. The MEL is developed by
each operator of an aircraft and must be equivalent to or more conservative that the master MEL, which is developed
by the manufacturer.
37
responded to the captain’s request to meet the plane when it landed and entered the electrical
equipment bay just aft of the nose wheel well and checked the PA amplifier to see if it was hot.
He reported that it was not hot, and that it was loose in its mount. He therefore secured the
amplifier, and the PA system was once again operable. He said that he did not notice any
unusual smells, noises, or vibrations while working in the equipment bay, and that the captain
had said that no circuit breakers had popped en route to Miami. According to the mechanic, the
pilot entered the corrective action the mechanic had taken into the airplane’s log book, and the
mechanic then signed the entry. The log book was retained on the airplane.
At the time of the accident, there were three open MEL items and one open
configuration deviations list (CDL)54 item being carried for N904VJ. Those items were as
follows:
· Left fuel flow gauge inoperative.
· Cockpit interphone inoperative.
· Autopilot porpoising.
· Flap hinge fairing removed.
Maintenance records indicated that the airplane complied with all applicable
airworthiness directives (ADs). AD 96-07-15, issued on May 15, 1996, called for the inspection
of a wire bundle in the overhead switching panel of the cockpit to detect possible chafing or
damage to the wire bundle that might lead to a fire. Maintenance records indicated that the
inspection had been performed on this airplane on May 20, 1995, after issuance of a McDonnell
Douglas Alert Service Bulletin on April 11, 1995. Maintenance records further indicated that no
damage or chafing was found at that time, and that the protective spiral wrap called for in the
service bulletin and the AD was applied to the bundle.

Offline MrRiplEy[H]

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Concorde Crash Theory.. Anyone have debunk info on this stuff?
« Reply #9 on: June 12, 2002, 03:58:15 AM »
First you said the crew “ductaped circuit breakers open”. That is what struck me funny as hell. Does some magnetic force suck them back in?! What does that have to do with anything? Anyway-

I think he meant the switches were forced to remain in switched position. Althought that would be totally insane and I can't believe anyone would actually do a thing like that.
Definiteness of purpose is the starting point of all achievement. –W. Clement Stone

Offline Dinger

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Concorde Crash Theory.. Anyone have debunk info on this stuff?
« Reply #10 on: June 12, 2002, 10:58:04 AM »
Yeah. Sorry, forgot my rule about posting while drunk.  Should have said "prevented the circuit breakers from opening (in the sense of opening the circuit)". And yeah, that is such an idiotic thing to do that it probably didn't happen.  But you will find people claiming exactly that.
In both cases you've got some maintenance issue before the crash that the investigators look at and discard, and people jump on it as the cause.

Offline john9001

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Concorde Crash Theory.. Anyone have debunk info on this stuff?
« Reply #11 on: June 12, 2002, 02:04:36 PM »
just a point to clearify

V1=takeoff decision speed, if you find a prob before this speed you abort, after V1 you are commited to takeoff

Vr=rotation speed, thats when you raise the nose

V2=takeoff safety speed , the minimum safe flying speed if a engine fails


any modern multi-eng jet SHOULD  be able to take off with one eng shut down once you reach V2