Why AH won't make it, Damnit

[pasquale]

I hope it does, but I don't think it will.

Just some W.A.G 'es here, but I would say they are in the (low end)ballpark.

6 persons employed=$15,000(6x$2500 which is pretty damn conservative)
Server costs=$5,000(This is a real WAG, and includes line charges and hardware amortization)

So at it's most crude, HTC has a $20,000 per month nut.

$20,000/$29.95=667.78 Paying players(We will call Fallen the .78 of a player).


Anyone want to bet that HTC doesn't get 667 paying players in the first 6 months?

[Yeager]

Hard to say.

One thing is sure.  These folks know what they are doing.

Yeager

[Westy]

Was this how it was back in '95 for them?
I think it was worse then from what I've read and heard.

 These guys and gals aren't novices. There is a very large existing customer base to tap from. Folks from Flying Circus/BoB, Fighter Ace 1.5-2, AW people from GameStorm and AOL who charge $2.00 oer/hr for AW3, DoA and WB's...
 They're all doing roughly the same thing but with different levels of fidelity and realism. And imho AH is the defacto leader now.
 I've even seen references to Aces High in
the game magazines.
 If they continue as they have word of mouth will pull in a good amount of people and if they advertise and get the sim out on the magazine CDRoms and hardware bundles then they will pull more folks in.

 -Westy

[indian]

HTC will make I have met all of them and they are all dedicated to their work. Dont forget they did it before. Aces High will be the best online sim (to me it is allready). I like the way they are adding planes that noone else would try. I think from a comment HT made online the other day they have more then enough players that should stay and pay to pay the bills.

------------------
Tommy (INDIAN) Toon
  Cherokee Indian
My Homepage
Where you can find the Key Commands in  files for Word6 Wordpad and text mode.

indians Homepage

Aces High Word6 and Wordpad Doc's available on my web site.

[Sunchaser]

If AH does not succeed it will be unfortunate.

I have been totally anti pay to play online sims but, due to the exposure to AH in the free beta arena, I am going to pay for it at least until B17-2 gets here and perhaps, if certain expectations are met, and the $30 spent is not interferring with real life stuff like bills, food, etc will continue to do so.

These HTC guys and gal have, with a less than 6MB program, provided me personally with more online enjoyment than the combined thousands of Mega Bytes contained in CFS, Janes, EAW and SDOhELL.

I am not bashing any of these products, there are elements of all that are great, I am just saying that Aces High, Early 1.0 that it is, has come closest to giving me the best elements of all of them and they  are essentially finished products.

AH is not off the pad but the engines are firing up.

Good Luck HTC, and do not expect the check till real close to the deadline.

[CptTrips]

Within a year, they will be pushing 1,000 subscribers.

Regards,
Wab

[Morbid]

Wow Pasquale - You fly their sim and see that most everyone here really likes and enjoys it.

You should also allow that the skill required to do all the 3D transformations, lighting angles, distance measurements, gravity, accelleration, drag, lift, etc., probably include at least a little math.

The math you laid out is so trivial compared to that that it is truly laughable. If you think for one moment they haven't come this far and done those calculations to a depth you just might not understand, then I have some real choice swamp land I've been meaning to get rid of, er, sell to someone as wise and deep thinking as yourself.  

Guys, I really think all this uninformed speculation is really damaging to the community. If you want to make it tough to attract investors that can finance further expansion and enhancements, go right ahead. But it is self-defeating.

Look a little deeper please and accept that these people have (as outlined above) A) already launched and seen to maturity the best online sim around. B) have the technical skills to better that effort. C) who knows what else they have up their sleeve.

I see this junk on AGW and I see it here and most can tell I am at least a little peeved to see so many working so hard to pull the rug out from under ourselves. These speculations probably won't sway the savvy investor but it can't help. If you have these kinds of concerns, then consider writing to iEN or HTC (or any of the others) directly. But please don't keep this uninformed and ignorant speculation public. It is a waste of time.

[Gorf]

I have FAITH in the HTC team.  They did it once.. the can due it again...

NOW..were due I sign up for food stamps...hehehehe

ROCK ON AH!!!

Gorf

[weazel]

I don`t agree with your speculation a bit! The exodus from Warbirds has begun already and will continue to grow with time,not to mention the many players from FA2 and AW as well. HTC has provided us a fine simulation that gets better every release,at the moment I`m unemployed and money is very tight-but you can bet one way or another I will come up with my $30.00 a month to continue playing after pay to play begins next week.
 

Morbid said:
Guys, I really think all this uninformed speculation is really damaging to the community.

Well said Morbid,couldn`t agree more.


------------------
}]
 JG2 "Richthofen"

[hblair]

What morbid said

[pasquale]

If you think being a great game designer/artist means that you are a great businessman, I have some swamp land to sell to YOU.

This is the same crew that did WB, correct.  They then got in so much trouble, even with a large player base, paying per hour, that they had to sell the game.  

So do not assume that one thing equals the other or that success is gauranteed.

[dracon]

Exodus from WarBirds?  So tell me why I should leave WarBirds.  And...cause these are nice people is not an answer.  I like them too.  They work and try very hard.  I think they have two pluses.  The terrain is awesome and their connects seem more solid.
I pay 9.95 in WB's
I get:
58 planes
numerous arenas
5 hours in the Big Show
All the ACA action Combat arena I can play.
All the Dawn of Aces WWI I can play.
If I take Gold or Platinum plan I get it for 1.75/hr or 1.50/hr=20 Hrs.
Where's the deal here?
Too little, too soon, for too much!
I think it boils down to play the game you like the best 1st Then consider value second.  But, don't think there will be a mass Exodus from other games!  It ain't going to happen.  How about The Flying Circus Battle of Britian?  It's a contender too you know.
Best of Luck to all

[AKDejaVu]

The trick here, is to use the promise of money to get work out of most of the employees.  When money starts to roll in, you lay off all the spendy programmers and farm out your art or redundant code to third world sweat shops... preferably one where the average age is 12 (to keep a fresh perspective).  You can effectively cut your costs from 30k/month to about 5 dollars a week.

That enables HT and Pyro to sit back and enjoy a much larger profit margin.  I wonder who will be the first to be cut?

On a more serious note, you are a tad bit conservative on your estimates.  6 people employed would have to be a tad bit closer to 4k per... or even higher.  Is there any benefits to be paid for? (Can be avoided in previous scenario)  Don't forget lease on the office... after all HTs wife isn't going to allow them to use the "spare room" as an office much longer.

Now you are getting an idea what is most important in this buisness.  Keep it simple (minimal employees) and keep up costumer relations.  These are things iMOL forgot about with Warbirds.

I'm rooting for you guys at HTC.  I hope you all make as much this year as I did last year.  Though, you must remember, if I do make more than you this year... it is most likely that I worked that much harder.

AKDejaVu

BTW.. for the benifit of some slower readers... I just about put my tongue through my cheek writing this one.

[HaHa]

I unfortunately feel that HTC might have some probs. I have posted time and time again that AH isn't "unique" enough for a lot of users to switch.. i.e. its purty and has a nice FM (albeit a bit too good for most people) and has a simple strategy system.. but that's it. Otherwise the concept of the game is identical to WB.

I reaaaally don't get it. Why make a game that "yes" is fun, but still is exactly the same as someone who already has a strong stance in the market place. Unique stuff to be added (in case anyone is reading) in order of importance:

VEHICLES/Infantry - let us run around  

strategy - mission planning for vehicles/infantry, more elements such as
plane attrition

sounds - explosions, other planes WHEN your in tower/hq/or just starting plane (let us know there is an outdoor "feeling").

graphics - more clouds  , better explosions (HT is working on this I believe anyways)

terrain - water, rivers, cities

weather - clouds (more), rain, snow, NIGHT

Personally I don't think more planes are nearly as important as implementing the above suggestions. These affect the ENTIRE arena and greatly enhance the game for everyone.

[Morbid]

Pasquale, I never said anything of the sort. What I said was that the math is very simple (and they are obviously very capable at it). They (the collective "they" - HTC, iEN, Cornered Rat, etc.) know far better what their initial capitalization is, what their expenses are, what markets they are after, the number of accounts required to be profitable, etc.

They are the only ones who really know what they can pull off, how close they can cut it, etc. Anything we do is simply rumor-mongering and counterproductive. If all the people like you keep posting it is impossible to make a profit - whether it really is or isn't, you do two things - you help to topple the business that they are trying to build and you discourage any others from ever thinking it might be profitable enough to try.

You know what happens in areas where there isn't any money or future? Development gets dropped. As this is a form of recreation that I really enjoy, this hits home.

Now I do not mean to imply that your post would ever be capable of closing the HTC doors. Far from it. But yours and others as you guys keep this up are certainly not helping anything.

What good can come of it? Tell me one thing that is positive from public speculation about the viability (or lack therof) of any company? One thing.... Please. Why do you think it is good to post this junk?

Do you think that your speculation will cause all involved to light the light and realize "Christ I can't make any money at this - Pasquale said so!" and close up shop? Do you think your speculation will cause everyone to realize the doors will close and therefore decide to drop accounts now - because Pasquale said so?

It is just a waste of time and totally counterproductive. Why do you (and other posters like you) keep trying to drag them (the royal "them") down?

If they are going to fail, then they will fail. If they are going to thrive then they will thrive.