Author Topic: Zinni shares his view on the war  (Read 338 times)

Offline Charon

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Zinni shares his view on the war
« on: February 21, 2003, 11:05:05 AM »
Marine General Speaks Out Against Bush's War Plans
By Eric Boehlert, Salon
October 17, 2002

President Bush continues to encounter war critics in the most unlikely places – the United States military, for example. Last summer, retired Gen. Brent Scowcroft, who served as national security advis0r to Bush's father during the Gulf War, bluntly expressed his doubt about a unilateral war against Iraq. A few weeks later, a trio of four-star generals appeared before Congress to echo that concern.
 
One of them was Gen. Wesley Clark, a former NATO military commander. "If we go in unilaterally, or without the full weight of international organizations behind us, if we go in with a very sparse number of allies, if we go in without an effective information operation ... we're liable to supercharge recruiting for al-Qaida," Clark said.

Now comes retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni, former head of Central Command for U.S. forces in the Middle East, who has worked recently as the State Department's envoy to the region with a mission to encourage talks between Palestinians and Israelis. Zinni, a Purple Heart recipient who served in Vietnam and helped command forces in the Gulf War and in Somalia, spoke last Thursday in Washington at the Middle East Institute's annual conference and laid out his own reservations about a potential war with Iraq.

In a keynote address striking for its critical assessment of the Bush administration, Zinni stressed the need to get the Israeli-Palestinian peace process back on track, build a broad coalition against Iraq, create trust among allies in the region – and put Saddam Hussein's threat in perspective.

He also took issue with hawks in and around the administration who downplay the importance of Arab sentiment in the region. "I'm not sure which planet they live on," Zinni said, "because it isn't the one that I travel." And he challenged their suggestion that installing a new Iraqi government will not be especially difficult. "God help us," he said, "if we think this transition will occur easily."

Following his speech, in an exchange moderated by former U.S. ambassador to Israel Edward Walker, Zinni answered questions from the audience. In that session he was even more pointed as he discussed the possible consequences of an attack on Iraq and why war should always be used only as a last resort.

Salon: What level of troops do you think that we're going to have to invest in order to carry out an operation in Iraq?
 
Zinni: I'm a subscriber to Colin Powell's doctrine: Use overwhelming force. As a military man, I bristle against ideas of small forces and of surrogate forces that we trust that can draw us into things. We then become responsible for their actions and for their welfare; that can suck us into cities and places where units are still fighting that wouldn't normally fight us if we overwhelmed the situation.

We do not want to get involved in something that is done on the cheap or that is done in a way that maximizes destruction or leaves doubt in the minds that might fight us that they have any other option and don't have a clear way ... to remain intact and have a possible role in [building] a much more viable Iraq.
Do you think the war is unavoidable? Do you think that we are rushing into the war with Iraq without studying the consequences?

I'm not convinced we need to do this now. I am convinced that we need to deal with Saddam down the road, but I think that the time is difficult because of the conditions in the region and all the other events that are going on. I believe that he can be deterred and is containable at this moment. As a matter of fact, I think the containment can be ratcheted up in a way that is acceptable to everybody.

I do think eventually Saddam has to be dealt with. That could happen in many ways. It could happen that he just withers on the vine, he passes on to the afterlife, something happens within Iraq that changes things, he becomes less powerful, or the inspectors that go in actually accomplish something and eliminate potential weapons of mass destruction – but I doubt this – that might be there.

The question becomes how to sort out your priorities and deal with them in a smart way that you get things done that need to be done first before you move on to things that are second and third. If I were to give you my priority of things that can change for the better in this region, it is first and foremost the Middle East peace process and getting it back on track. Second, it is ensuring that Iran's reformation or moderation continues on track and trying to help and support the people who are trying to make that change in the best way we can. That's going to take a lot of intelligence and careful work.

The third is to make sure those countries to which we have now committed ourselves to change, like Afghanistan and those in Central Asia, we invest what we need to in the way of resources there to make that change happen. Fourth is to patch up these relationships that have become strained, and fifth is to reconnect to the people. We are talking past each other. The dialogue is heated. We have based this in things that are tough to compromise on, like religion and politics, and we need to reconnect in a different way. I would take those priorities before this one.

My personal view, and this is just personal, is that I think this isn't Number One. It's maybe six or seven, and the affordability line may be drawn around five.

Salon: I want your opinion of what the Iraqi people want. Are they going to greet our troops as liberators?

I think that, again depending on how this goes, if it's short with minimal destruction, there will be the initial euphoria of change. It's always what comes next that is tough. I went in with the first troops that went into Somalia. We were greeted as heroes on the street. People loved to see us; when the food was handed out, the water was given, the medicines were applied, we were heroes. After we had been there about a month, I had someone come see me who said there was a group of prominent Somalis that wanted to talk to me. I met with them. The first question out of their mouths was that we'd been there a month, hadn't started a jobs program, and when were we going to fix the economy? Well, I didn't know it was my Marine unit's responsibility to do that.

Expectations grow rapidly. The initial euphoria can wear off. People have the idea that Jeffersonian democracy, entrepreneurial economics and all these great things are going to come. If they are not delivered immediately, do not seem to be on the rise, and worse yet, if the situation begins to deteriorate – if there is tribal revenge, factional splitting, still violent elements in the country making statements that make it more difficult, institutions that are difficult to reestablish, infrastructure damage, I think that initial euphoria could wane away. It's not whether you're greeted in the streets as a hero; it's whether you're still greeted as a hero when you come back a year from now. Do you believe that Iraq is the endgame or is this only the precursor to engagement in Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia as some journalists have projected? If there is this widening role for the United States in the region, do we have the necessary military forces and other resources to confront this kind of mega-involvement?

I have a couple of heroes. One is George C. Marshall, a great general that led us through a great war to victory. Look what that general did after the war. He didn't look to fight more wars; he didn't look to leave the situation in the condition in a place where those wars would re-breed themselves.

Look at Gen. MacArthur in Japan. He was a man who suffered through Bataan and Corregidor and lost his troops to a horrific enemy. He reached out to the Japanese people and used other means to re-create stability and prosperity. Look at Gens. Grant and Lee, where Grant wanted the mildest of surrenders where dignity was maintained and where friendship and connection could happen, where Robert E. Lee did not want to go into the hills and fight guerrilla wars. He knew it was a time to heal and to do it at the best level.

Like those generals who were far greater than I am, I don't think that violence and war is the solution. There are times when you reluctantly, as a last resort, have to go to war. I will tell you that in my time, I never saw anything come out of fighting that was worth the fight. I'm sure my brother who served in Korea, my cousins who served in the Pacific and in Europe in World War II, and my father who fought for this country in World War I with the other 12 percent of Italian immigrants who served in the infantry may all have different views of their wars.
 
(cont.)
« Last Edit: February 21, 2003, 11:13:51 AM by Charon »

Offline Charon

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Zinni shares his view on the war
« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2003, 11:05:40 AM »
My wars that I saw were handled poorly. I carry around with me a quote from Robert McNamara's book "In Retrospect." Unfortunately, this was written 30 years after a war that put 58,000 names on that wall, caused 350,000 of us to suffer wounds that crushed many lives. He said: "One reason the Kennedy and Johnson administrations failed to take an orderly, rational approach to the basic question underlying Vietnam was the staggering variety and complexity of other issues we faced. Simply put, we faced a blizzard of problems. There were only 24 hours in a day, and we often did not have time to think straight."
Well, Mr. McNamara, my 24 hours a day and my troops' 24 hours a day were in a sweaty hot jungle bleeding for these mistakes. When he resigned in 1968, he didn't want to do it in a way where he objected openly to the war. There were many more years of that war left, and many more casualties occurred. I wish he had stood up for that principle.

I would just say to you that if we look at this as a beginning of a chain of events, meaning that we intend to solve this through violent action, we're on the wrong course. First of all, I don't see that that's necessary. Second of all, I think that war and violence are a very last resort, and we have to be careful how we apply it, especially now in our position in the world.

Salon: Talking about last resorts is a very difficult question and not one that we can answer here; it's up to another country really. What do you think Israel should do if it is hit with nonconventional weapons?

I think every country has the right to defend itself, and every country has that reserved right to protect its people. I don't think we could dictate to any nation what its reaction ought to be. That's a political decision their leadership must make. The prime minister will have to make that decision as to what he feels is in the best interest of his own people and in his own interest. There is no doubt that this will be tested.

Salon: General, how do you think the war on Iraq would affect regional allies, particularly Pakistan, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia?

I think Pakistan will be extremely worried about us getting distracted from the subcontinent, Central Asia and Afghanistan. There is the possibility that it will encourage or incite extremists within that region and within their own country to react. They're going to look, I think nervously, to see whether we stay committed, that we're able to handle two fronts or more.

For Jordan and Egypt, if the war is drawn out, the reactions on the street are going to be extremely dangerous for both regimes and may present significant problems in their abilities to support and deal with problems that may emerge from their own street. I think Saudi Arabia will support us. I think they are going to have a lot of difficulty with the decision to go in, unless a clear case is made. It will help in all these countries that there is a clear U.N. resolution that supports this; they can do it in the name of the U.N. I think in all cases the biggest problem is going to be internal. The images that come back and burn across the region are going to decide the greatest problems that each one of those is going to have to deal with.

Salon: Could you define success in the context of a military operation and what failure might be?

Well, success in a military operation isn't only defined in military terms. We tried to do that in Vietnam by body counts and it didn't work. Success in a military operation has to be measured in success in the political objectives that you're out to achieve.
I think success will not be measured by what happens in the fight. I would hope in a military context that casualties are minimal all the way around, that destruction is minimized, and that the rapid conclusion of the fighting occurs in a way that we don't create long-standing hatreds, frictions or security problems in the region. But the military success of this is just the beginning of the beginning. What is going to end up being a deciding factor as to whether this is a success will be what happens to Iraq in the aftermath, whether it stands up as a viable democratic multirepresentational nation with its territory intact, not threatening its neighbors and disavowing weapons of mass destruction. All of those component parts are going to be difficult to pull together. That will be the measure of success.
 
I don't believe that we ever lost a battle in Vietnam. I don't believe we ever lost a battle in Somalia. I don't believe we ever really lost a battle once we committed ourselves to Korea, but we didn't resolve the situations politically the way we wanted to in any of those instances. So military success, in and of itself, is never the complete answer. Success will have to be measured not in military terms but in political terms in what is left behind. That will be the mark of what we are – what we leave behind in this.

Offline john9001

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Zinni shares his view on the war
« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2003, 12:10:26 PM »
<>>>

1939

peace in our time

Offline Charon

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Zinni shares his view on the war
« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2003, 01:17:19 PM »
So General Zinni is Neville Chamberlain? Saddam Hussein is Adolph Hitler?

Would you please, John, describe in detail the similarities between 1939 Europe and 2003 Middle East?  Or, you could just refute the general point by point. You obviously have a very strong opinion on the issue, backed up, I'm sure, by considerable research into what these actions will generate throughout the region.

I suppose I could write something about Polish agressors crossing into Germany, but again, it's apples and oranges.

One analogy that applies from WW2 is accurate I believe. Pro or con, the buck stops here, with the American people. Good people will die, bad people will die and the world may very well change for the better or for the worse. Regardless, there will be no room down the road for for something along the lines of: "How could we have known?" So if you support the war, or are against it, I hope that decision is made on something more substantial than "Peace in our times".

Charon
« Last Edit: February 21, 2003, 01:34:07 PM by Charon »

Offline Erlkonig

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Zinni shares his view on the war
« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2003, 01:23:24 PM »
Scowcroft.........pro-Saddam, anti-disarmament.

Clark.........closet liberal (commie), America-hater.

now Zinni..........Liberal-Left sympathizer, Bush-hater.

Right on, john90210!!!!!!!!!! Not a century has passed and Nazi soldiers are yet again on the brink of European domination.  Those whoopee coward Frogs, who are they gonna go to when Saddam's SS Panzer Division "Das Hussein" steamrolls right past the Maginot?

Offline Batz

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Zinni shares his view on the war
« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2003, 01:47:29 PM »
Scowcroft, Powell and others including Bush Sr. had their view of world politics shaped under the cold war. Where alliances and treaties and the idea of containment inorder to limit the prospects of total war.

Also the impact pact of Vietnam is still felt on numerous military commanders.

Bush Jr, Cheney and others after 9/11 have turned away from the policies of "containment" and Bush (Jr) outlined what can be considered the Bush Doctrine. "Containment" worked because both sides understood the idea of "assured mutal destruction".

Bush stated that no longer would the US sit back and wait for something to happen. Not only would the US take preemptive action but they would take preventive actions to stop "things" from happening even if that means going at it unilaterally.

Quote
Released Sept. 17, 2002, twenty months after President Bush took office, the 33-page "National Security Strategy of the United States" (NSS) offers the administration's first comprehensive rationale for a new, aggressive approach to national security. The new strategy calls for pre-emptive action against hostile states and terror groups, and it states that the U.S. "will not hesitate to act alone, if necessary, to exercise our right of self-defense by acting pre-emptively." The NSS also focuses on how diplomacy and foreign aid can and should be used to project American values, including "a battle for the future of the Muslim world."



Quote
Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz has been at the center of Pentagon strategic planning in both Bush administrations. A hawk on the use of U.S. military power, Wolfowitz took the lead in drafting the 1992 Defense Planning Guidance on America's military posture toward the world. The draft said that containment was an old idea, a relic of the cold war. It advocated that America should maintain military strength beyond challenge and use it to preempt provocations from rogue states with weapons of mass destruction. And it stated that, if necessary, the U.S. should be prepared to act alone. Leaked to the press, Wolfowitz's draft was rewritten and softened by then-Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney. Ten years later, many analysts see a strong resemblance between President Bush's 2002 National Security Strategy and Wolfowitz's 1992 draft.


What happened to bring such a shift in policy was 9/11 and reality that the US cant wait and hope wmd arent used against us.

Quote
In both the Bush administration's overall foreign policy strategy -- as laid out in its National Security Strategy of September 2002 -- as well as in the campaign to oust Saddam Hussein, the administration has made it clear that in the end, if necessary, the U.S. is prepared to go it alone.


Zini like Scowcroft, Powell and others still agree with the policy of containment. Powell is the one who convinced Bush to go to the UN. Also after 9/11 some in the Bush adminstration wanted to go after Suddam right away and it was Powell who got Bush to agree to going about the war on terrorism in "phases". But Bush made it clear that one of those phases would be regime change in Iraq.

Heres a link to several interviews that were Done For the Feb 20 airing of PBS's "Frontline: The War Behind Closed Doors"

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/iraq/interviews/

Heres a link to the original program

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/iraq/

Heres a link about the Evolution of the Bush Doctrine

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/iraq/etc/cron.html

Its important to keep in context what guys like Zini and Scowcroft are saying. The disgreement goes deeper then just about Iraq.

That Frontline program was very informative and if anyone  gets a chance to see it I would recomend it.

Despite what you think of Bush he has to bare the responsibilty of his actions. He may go alone and loose "allies". If he does nothing and if a few years from now Chicago or New York goes up in a mushroom cloud or chem or Bio weapons kills thousands then he would have failed in his responsibilities. Esxtablishing his Doctrine and excersiving it fully will show the rest of the world that the US wont sit back and let things happen. The US will take pre-emptive and preventative action against any organization or Nation that threatens the Security of the US.


Iraq is more then oil or imperislism or any of the other left wing BS. Its about drawing a line in the sand.

Offline Charon

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Zinni shares his view on the war
« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2003, 03:04:33 PM »
Good post Batz (Wotan) . I don’t have as much of a problem with the line in the sand argument if it weren’t for indications that the administration is interested in more than dealing with a WMD threat to the US. I’ve outlined elsewhere why I believe that is more a selling point than a motivation, and there seems to be a broader motivation at work. One of the commentators at one of your links restates the points and the risks that I am struggling with now.

Mark Danner, staff writer at The New Yorker and professor of journalism at the University of California, Berkeley.

Quote
You can identify two strains in this administration, one of which would be the Reaganites -- officials who take a somewhat ideological and almost evangelical view of the world. They would be officials who descend from Ronald Reagan's "Evil Empire" speech -- the notion that American power should be used to change the world, not simply to manage it. This itself dates back to people who backed a policy of rollback in the 1950s -- Douglas MacArthur, for example, Dulles to some extent. That's one group. You find many of them in positions in the civilian leadership in the Pentagon.

The other group would be officials who really follow in the path of Bush I, of the president's father. These are pragmatists, so-called realists. They believe that foreign policy is the patient management of alliances, competitions and, to some extent, conflict. You manage, you take things slowly, you use your allies, bring your power to bear in all sorts of ways, not simply military power. You recognize that the world, as it is, is a difficult place, where there will be evil people as well as allies, that those evil people cannot simply be destroyed, that in many cases they have to be lived with. Indeed, this strain, I would say, would be very uncomfortable with the words "good and evil." ...

On the grand strategy for the region and the WMD/terrorist link

It's clear the reason the administration doesn't bring up the grand strategy of bringing democracy to the Middle East is it's very ambitious; it's controversial, and it will divide Americans. Many Americans, from all we know, think it isn't necessarily the business of the United States to transform the Middle East. They might be willing to pay their tax dollars, and send their young men and women, put them at risk, to protect themselves from danger from a dictator with nuclear weapons, an erratic dictator. [But] they might be much more hesitant to do those things in support of a policy that's meant to transform regimes very far away, whose interest to the United States is obscure, and about whom they know very little.

So it's clear, from the administration's point of view, that those arguments are not necessarily winning arguments. They would probably be divisive. It also should be said that this policy of ambitious democratizing in the Middle East, while clearly dear to the heart of many powerful officials within the administration, is not necessarily the adopted policy of the Bush administration as a whole. Indeed, whether or not they try to follow through on these ambitions, we will only see when the war is fought.

The policy is breathtakingly ambitious, because it talks about transforming regimes that have been in place, and have been harsh and dictatorial for decades. It talks about transforming a region in which, as you look around from Morocco to Baghdad, certainly the rule is much more the longevity of regimes than it is their proclivity to constant change.

The notion of making democracies out of many of these states is a terribly ambitious one, and it's unclear how it could be effected. Indeed, it's very unclear what the administration has planned for Iraq itself -- a complicated country with serious sectarian problems, with rivalries between Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds -- and which has never been governed in any way democratically.

I think the fears of the realists over a policy of democratization are several. First, that it's not possible. Iraq, a country that is essentially a patched together country of three provinces of the Ottoman Empire, that has serious sectarian differences, that's been ruled by the minority Sunnis since its beginnings -- that to take that regime and to make a democracy out of it will be difficult, if not impossible. If indeed one seriously wants to accomplish that, it will require an American occupation of indeterminate length, perhaps five or 10 years; and that finally, the risks of that, not to mention the costs, are extraordinary.

The costs would be tens of billions of dollars a year in occupation costs, and possibly the loss of U.S. lives out to 10 years from now. The political costs are perhaps even more serious, which is, in the broad view, the United States is responding to a band of religious fanatics who attacked the country a year and a half ago in the name of destroying U.S.-backed regimes in the Middle East, that is in the name of imposing American imperialism in the Middle East. The U.S. is responding to that by occupying a major Arab country, which seems to be, if you put it in those stark terms, politically not very adroit.

One could see a long occupation in Iraq as being a perfect fundraiser and a perfect political help to Osama bin Laden and others who are sympathetic to his cause…

It's enormously ambitious; it's enormously risky. It relies on a lot of assumptions about what you can do with power. Napoleon said, "You can do everything with a bayonet except sit on it," by which he supposedly meant that you can do a lot of things with military force, but you cannot, in the end, govern with it. You can't create a politics with it.

And this administration believes -- very strongly, it seems -- that military force can be the answer to political problems, and can be the answer to the problem of political modernization which has bedeviled the Middle East for the entire modern period, the entire post-colonial period. They seem to believe -- at least some of them -- that vigorous military action in Iraq will set in train a series of events that will lead to regimes that are more representative, and in the end, less sympathetic to terrorism, that will not be breeding grounds for terrorism, as it were.

So this is their political response to 9/11 in its broadest terms, and it's a very ambitious one. It's also a very, very risky one.


I am divided. There are risks with containment, IMO more related to a collapse of Saudi Arabia with no alternatives in place to counter that hit on the world economy. I believe we have a technical justification to proceed. However, I don’t have a lot of faith, perhaps I’m misguided, in the ability to achieve the evangelist's long-term goals for the region. I hope I am wrong.

Charon

Offline Batz

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« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2003, 03:17:11 PM »
The tone of my last post sounds like I support the "Bush Doctrine" but I dont because like you I "fear" the long term risks,


Iraq for instance, Suddam is replaced by a Fundamentalist government that may be more inclined to link it self with terrorists against the great Satan, the kurds and shi'ites going to war to form independent states. That would put the US in a bad place. we have always said we wanted a Unified Iraq and our Nato allie Turkey will never support a "Kurdistan".

Iran would have an interest in have a Shi'ite Nation in Southern Iraq and may lead to conflict with the US position.

Then we have to consider the "democratization" of Saudi Arabia. There are many extremists in SA and one can envision a more fundamentalist "elected" government coming to power.

So I am more inclined to follow the idea of "containment". But I understand the reasoning behind the "Bush Doctrine".

Offline john9001

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Zinni shares his view on the war
« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2003, 03:29:14 PM »
people who get paid to write, do just that , write.

what they write doesn't always have to make sense, they just have to put words on paper to get their paycheck.

Offline Charon

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Zinni shares his view on the war
« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2003, 03:55:56 PM »
Quote
people who get paid to write, do just that , write.

what they write doesn't always have to make sense, they just have to put words on paper to get their paycheck.
\

Great analysis John. Since it's nonsense I'm sure you can pick it apart piece by piece (with support for your arguments). Frankly, he just presented a summary of what many principals in the current Bush administration have stated, on the record, for years before 9/11. About their positions making sense, I too have my doubts. I suppose former Marine generals who have filled international policy roles in the Middle East don't have to make sense either.

Interesting view on journalism too. I never knew it was all that easy. I'm going to have to give it a shot someday :)

Charon

Offline weazel

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<Chimpy voice>
« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2003, 04:03:48 PM »
Generals are irrelevant.