The whole point of the bet is basically 10Bears "there's no evidence" position.
There is evidence. A bit here, a bit there, a chunk over the other place. But each time, it is dismissed or excused as "not enough of it" or "not really that dangerous" or "oh, gee.. did we forget to mention that one? sorry!"
How long can one allow them to slide by on excuses?
I think there's ample evidence they are not in compliance. Is this reason enough for war? Taking Hussein's regime, genocide, murders and other deeds as a whole with the non-compliance (which includes a possibly advanced nuke program)... Yes, it is time. I'm at peace with that. I do want UN sanction, however; I am not into this pre-emptive action stuff. (Not that anyone calls and asks my opinion. Although I've been sending them a few E-Mails... whopwhopwhopwhop, here come the black helos! Quick! Under the aluminum foil hats!)
That's why the bet is structured the way it is. Either they are in violation, and thus "not in compliance" for 12 years and it's time to "comply them" or they ARE in compliance.
Now, I'll be happy to take your money. But first, pick a charity or something. Heck, I'll pay your account for a month. I'm going to be writing those letters and angry E-mails anyway if you turn out to be right, so you aren't "winning" or "getting" anything.
As to the "proof", I'd expect to see a whole lot more than one drone or one lonely shell full of VX also.
So, the wager between you and I would be a bit different than the one with 10Bears in that respect.
With him, it's "not in compliance". With you, I'll take "reasonable people could conclude".
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