Author Topic: Manufacturing at Highest Level in Two Decades (Read 2958 times)

Rude · « **Reply #30 on:** December 03, 2003, 04:52:32 PM »

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Originally posted by slimm50
Miko, that's as erudite a discourse on macroeconomics as I've ever heard in any college lecture. Thanks. But, sometimes, one cannot see the forest for the frikkin' trees. You (generically speaking) can analyze the economy and politics out the wazoo (so-to-speak), and the one thing that can bring to naught all economists and politicians' prognostications in consumer confidence/ consumer reaction. That's because it's the one thing that is most unpredictable. At least, that's how I see it. What ya think? I'm listening.
slim03

Bingo....btw....the sky is falling. Factories are currently pumping out goods at a record rate, so that product can sit on the shelves of retailers nationwide while consumers buy gold in preparation for the upcoming economic maelstrom.

Gunslinger · « **Reply #31 on:** December 03, 2003, 05:05:12 PM »

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Originally posted by Dnil
I was an engineering tech for exxonmobil, now I am a bum, lol.

Dnil,

I was unemployed after being released fromt he military for the secont time (long story) and moved to north texas. Last I heard dallas had a booming job market.

Well, it didnt and I ended up getting a job as a temp at a sweatshop type repair facility for lucent. It was funny cause that company was a collection point for everyone that had been layed off by Motorola IBM alcatel micron....u name it somone worked there.

basically we all had to take the job or lose unemployment.

my solution.....I re-enlisted....cant say if I'm happier or not but I get a paycheck so oh well

hang in there bud ~S~

Dnil · « **Reply #32 on:** December 03, 2003, 06:17:40 PM »

can't re-enlist, already tried. See they are funny about taking back a disabled veteran, go figure.....I can fight just give me a weapon!!

2003 has hands down been the worst year of my life...the last 2 months almost unbearable.

midnight Target · « **Reply #33 on:** December 03, 2003, 06:21:23 PM »

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Originally posted by Rude
and I would be a self rightous asss..... because.

couldn't resist.

Does this mean I don't get BBQ next April?

Raubvogel · « **Reply #34 on:** December 03, 2003, 06:26:00 PM »

Dnil, have you looked into applying for a National Guard Technician position? There are tons of these positions posted, but I don't think many are aware of it. As long as you did not retire from the military or separated with 100% disability you'd probably qualify. They look at military experience very favorably. It's an odd position. Basically you are a federal civilian and get paid as such, but you wear a National Guard uniform M-F, and do the drills with a unit on the weekends. You acrue retirement credit towards both- federal and national guard. If you're interested, shoot me a message and I'll pass along what info I have to you.

miko2d · « **Reply #35 on:** December 03, 2003, 06:58:07 PM »

slimm50: You (generically speaking) can analyze the economy and politics out the wazoo (so-to-speak), and the one thing that can bring to naught all economists and politicians' prognostications in consumer confidence/ consumer reaction.

Not really. Consumers cannot spend the money they do not have and the money cannot buy goods that are not produced. So all the talk about "consumer confidence" is so much claptrap used by politicians to explain things they do not understand.

If someone's confidence metters to economy it's not consumers but entrepreneurs - the people who risk their money on profitability of increased production.

And from what I see - they are not confident. The foreign investors are not as eager to invest in US and the domestic capitalists are reducing their borrowing, not increasing it.

"Our economy was strong and it is getting stronger," Mr. Bush said. "Productivity is high; business investment is strong; housing construction is strong. The tax relief we passed is working."

How can Bush say that busieness investment is strong if business borrowing is clearly down?

Rude: Factories are currently pumping out goods at a record rate...

Factories were pumping out goods in Soviet Union and in US in 1929, so what? It's not a big deal to increase consumption by burning through your savings/capital account.
You confuse activity with progress and even the most primitive argunemts do not get through to you. Do you wnat to bet that people hired today will not lose their jobs withing two years and that many of projects started would not go bancrupt and result in waste of resources?

People are buying plenty of gold as you can see. They are also buying plenty of cheap foreign imports, not the US manufactured stuff.

miko

Dnil · « **Reply #36 on:** December 03, 2003, 08:03:57 PM »

yes that sounds good...shoot me an email at jeffh999@hotmail.com

really appreciate it.

Raubvogel · « **Reply #37 on:** December 03, 2003, 08:54:19 PM »

Email sent.

Tumor · « **Reply #38 on:** December 04, 2003, 12:58:15 AM »

I hate it when it's horrible that good things are happening.

Naso · « **Reply #39 on:** December 04, 2003, 04:13:42 AM »

Thx Miko, it's always interesting to read your economic lessons.

(Even if I dont agree with your "economic utopia")

@Dnil:

sorry for your situation,

but i guess when Iraq will be "stabilized", there will be a new opening of working positions in oil companies.

Rude · « **Reply #40 on:** December 04, 2003, 09:51:26 AM »

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Originally posted by midnight Target
couldn't resist.

Does this mean I don't get BBQ next April?

Absolutely not....my skin is as thick as boot leather, so BBQ is in your future:)

Rude · « **Reply #41 on:** December 04, 2003, 10:16:34 AM »

Again Miko....what exactly is your forecast for the US economy?

miko2d · « **Reply #42 on:** December 04, 2003, 12:13:46 PM »

Tumor: I hate it when it's horrible that good things are happening.

Increase in hours worked, in capital and labor spending - it's all expense. Expense is only a good thing if it results in profit - increase in usefull production, etc.

From the point of view of one guy, a paid job is good whether he is employed to create value or to destroy it. But for the whole country it's only the jobs/investments that create value that are good.
All other jobs just destroy wealth and redistribute some wealth from people creating it to those wasting it.

It seems that you guys cannot understand that I am not arguing that we do not have an increase in economic activity. We certainly do. But it's a fallacy to consider such an increase good or bad without knowing or at least having an idea what the result will be.

All the dark cable buried underground was counted as billions $$ increase in GDP. Their value now is nill. The massive works to dry the Everglades caused jobs and GDP increase. Now the massive work and many jobs restoring the damage are counted as GDP increase again.

Extra capacity of the plants being closed before they are worn off is of zero value but when they were built, the whole expense was counted as GDP gain instead of loss.

Rude: Again Miko....what exactly is your forecast for the US economy?

Midterm - two-four years - it is just another wastefull boom/bust cycle induced by the Fed's monetary policy. We will experience some "growth". Then we will have a recession and experience some loss. Also, many boom projects counted as value created will prove a loss and value destroyed.
So the 8% reported growth now minus depression losses minus wasted value may prove to be really 1-2% of real sustained growth if any with resources invested that could have easily resulted in 4-5% growth.

Meanwhile longer term we are movng even deeper into general insolvency as a country and more unbalanced economy due to artificially high imports.

miko

Rude · « **Reply #43 on:** December 04, 2003, 03:32:32 PM »

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Midterm - two-four years - it is just another wastefull boom/bust cycle induced by the Fed's monetary policy. We will experience some "growth". Then we will have a recession and experience some loss. Also, many boom projects counted as value created will prove a loss and value destroyed.

Did you just describe a new phenomenon in American economics, or is this a continuation of practices going back over 50 years?

Thanks for answering btw.

midnight Target · « **Reply #44 on:** December 04, 2003, 04:02:08 PM »

I know little of what Miko talks about, but I will say this. We are a big ticket manufacturer, and we DO NOT build stuff just to keep busy. In fact if it aint sold it ain't built. Yet our orders from the last trade show were up over 30% from last year. And orders from the current show in Louisville have exceeded 600 so far. Thats a lot of RV's folks.