Author Topic: Retail sales are up, dollar is bouncing. Strange... (Read 665 times)

miko2d · « **on:** December 11, 2003, 12:49:32 PM »

Apparently the Retail Sales rose 0.7% last month.

The dollar is rallying this morning, which started in the
afternoon session yesterday... This is all being tied to the forecasts for the Retail Sales data which is due out this morning...

Since amercian consumers are amassing debt and gorging on imports, that should mean more dollars are flowing out of the country and the dollar should be dropping further, rather than raising.

Anyway, +0.7% last month combined with -0.4% a month before and -0.3% two months ago should bring it up to... 0% for the last three months... Hallelujah?

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Unit sales of new cars and trucks posted a larger than expected 8.7-percent increase in November and will drive the overall retail sales results.

Let me guess, bought on credit? When I was posting a chart few days ago showing increased commertial lending but reduced industrial and business lending, I was wondering where all that newly-created money was going. That's where.

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Some carmakers, notably General Motors (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , increased sales incentives in November and the arrival of 2004 models was said to have generated significant foot traffic.

Insentives, heh? I'd love to see the updated stats how much are US companies are making (losing) on each car sold. Anyone has a link?

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Others noted signs that the holiday buying season started sluggishly at some stores. Retailers such as Wal-Mart (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) have said recently that some consumers are tapped out and are mostly shopping after the arrival of their paychecks.

Retailers got a boost in the summer as Americans spent tax rebate checks but that help has now played itself out. Recent weekly chain store data has been soft.

Yappies buying more Hummers thanks to the U.S. government provided massive tax breaks of up to $75,000 to promote the purchase of luxury SUVs by the rich - that's good. Isn't it?

Wall-Mart - buying joes shmoes are all out of cash, plastic credit and "consumer confidence" - apparently not so good. Oh, well.

miko

ra · « **Reply #1 on:** December 11, 2003, 01:01:41 PM »

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Insentives, heh? I'd love to see the updated stats how much are US companies are making (losing) on each car sold. Anyone has a link?

US auto makers have been taking a beating for a long time. Do a google on "auto maker incentives profit" or a similar combination and you will find your info. The US auto makers strategy is to try to maintain market share until the economy comes booming back, then sit back and enjoy the good times, then repeat over and over. You'd think that after the Japanese automakers started gobbling up market share in the 80's the US makers would have learned to think long term.

_Schadenfreude_ · « **Reply #2 on:** December 11, 2003, 01:10:18 PM »

Dollar bouncing...yeah like a brick it's bouncing.....1.7 to the sterling

miko2d · « **Reply #3 on:** December 11, 2003, 01:23:39 PM »

ra: Do a google on "auto maker incentives profit"

GM and Ford aren't car makers, they're banks

I knew that. Banks make money by literally creating dollars out of thin air, lending them at interest and keeping that interest once the money is repaid and "extinguished".
Sure, that is a very profitable business - creating a million dollars at the cost of $0 and then lending it out at 8%.
No need to deal with production and those pesky unionised workers and their retirement benefits.

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Overall, GM made $34-million on its global auto business.
With revenue of more than $39-billion in its automotive division...

Wow, $34 million on $39 billion sales. That's what, 0.1% profit margin?

I wonder why don't they shut down their car manufacturing business altogether and just keep lending money to the buyers of foreign-brand cars made in non-union southern plants? We all know the last two domestic US car-makers would not survive a decade due to unions and excessive benefit loads.

Joe taxpayer will have to bail them out anyway - either to keep them afloat or to take over their pension obligations once they go bust.

miko

Yeager · « **Reply #4 on:** December 11, 2003, 01:26:19 PM »

I wonder why
====
WTF?.....I thought you knew it all.

Never mind me, get back to sitting there and wondering in amazement at it all

mrblack · « **Reply #5 on:** December 11, 2003, 01:33:33 PM »

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Originally posted by _Schadenfreude_
Dollar bouncing...yeah like a brick it's bouncing.....1.7 to the sterling

Seems the 52snd stae is doing ok:aok

miko2d · « **Reply #6 on:** December 11, 2003, 01:38:31 PM »

mrblack: Seems the 52snd stae is doing ok:aok

Not really, mrblack. The british pound is going down as well - just not as fast as US dollar.

miko

mrblack · « **Reply #7 on:** December 11, 2003, 01:39:47 PM »

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Originally posted by miko2d
mrblack: Seems the 52snd stae is doing ok:aok

Not really, mrblack. The british pound is going down as well - just not as fast as US dollar.

miko

Yep Mr Bush needs to spend some time on the economy I think.

Mickey1992 · « **Reply #8 on:** December 11, 2003, 02:14:41 PM »

I think it was an ABC report that I saw last week where they interviewed a guy from Wal-Mart. Considering that Wal-Mart is the biggest US retailer and accounts for something like 18% of all retail in the country, the trends they can produce pretty much reflect the whole retail industry.

They showed over the years how you can easily tell the payday in the American workweek. They showed sales over a two-week period in a graph and you can see it jump on payday. What they have seen lately that they don't usually see is that sales in the couple of days before payday are near rock bottom. More and more people are living paycheck to paycheck than ever before. It was interesting.

_Schadenfreude_ · « **Reply #9 on:** December 11, 2003, 02:49:37 PM »

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Originally posted by mrblack
Seems the 52snd stae is doing ok:aok

Well sterling can be too strong - chases away all the tourists and the guns and drugs (ahem pharmaceutical and defence) buyers from shopping here....

miko2d · « **Reply #10 on:** December 11, 2003, 02:52:07 PM »

Curiosuly, they mostly use the payday of 15th of the month to chart the trends that reflect the economy.

They do not use the 30th of the months because that coincides with the people receiving the government's monthly welfare benefits - which skewes the picture quite a lot.

At the end of the month, the "consumer confidence" is running as high as ever. In the middle of the month - not so much...

miko

ygsmilo · « **Reply #11 on:** December 11, 2003, 03:13:34 PM »

miko2d-

A question,

If this country is in such a Echo Charlie Foxtrot why do you choose to stay?

AKS\/\/ulfe · « **Reply #12 on:** December 11, 2003, 03:18:26 PM »

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Originally posted by ygsmilo
miko2d-

A question,

If this country is in such a Echo Charlie Foxtrot why do you choose to stay?

He's waiting for it to become a post apocolyptic area devoid of human civilization and ruled by ruthless print shop managers, so that he can be just like Kevin Costner in "The Postman" and deliver people's lost mail in exchange for gold.
-SW

Trell · « **Reply #13 on:** December 11, 2003, 03:21:53 PM »

miko2d- what do you do for a living?

miko2d · « **Reply #14 on:** December 11, 2003, 03:46:42 PM »

ygsmilo: miko2d-
A question,
If this country is in such a Echo Charlie Foxtrot why do you choose to stay?

My personal situation is very complex. There are more factors in my cost/benefit analysis than the viability of the country's economy or even social order.
I can prepare to deal with consequences or even benefit from them - and it may be cheaper for me than emigrate.

I am doing all I can to stave off or reverse the downspiralling trend - mostly by education. That will keep my concience clear and may be allow more people to prepare.
Talking is not all I am doing.

All civilisations so far folowed the same development.ue to the modern technology all civilisations on Earth seem to be locked in the same cycle, so what's the point to move?

Roman Empire and civilisation fell (for the same reasons ours is falling) HOW EXCESSIVE GOVERNMENT KILLED ANCIENT ROME
That does not mean romans went extinct. Especially not the onces that were capable and prepared.

Trell: miko2d- what do you do for a living?

Software development. Making new software for a financial company. Watching software run.

miko