China's reaction to Taiwan Chaos

[Gixer]

""We will not sit by watching should the post-election situation in Taiwan get out of control, leading to social turmoil, endangering the lives and property of our flesh-and-blood brothers and affecting stability across the Taiwan strait."

Just found this statement very interesting by China. Dosn't it seem that instabilty in Taiwan gives China a more Convenient reason to send troops into Taiwan and reinstall order then a referendum on independence or new missiles might do.

Seems that the close vote may end up playing perfectly into China's hands. Talk to any Chinese they are 100 % behind taking Taiwan back. Only a matter of time.



...-Gixer

[NUKE]

I'm sure China is only waiting for UN approval first.......

[Gixer]

Originally posted by NUKE
I'm sure China is only waiting for UN approval first.......

LMAO, you mean like the US does?




...-Gixer

[NUKE]

Originally posted by Gixer
LMAO, you mean like the US does?




...-Gixer

How does Iraq's violation of the 1st Gulf War's cease-fire agreements compair?

[NUKE]

Maybe if the UN agreed that China could invade Taiwan, I would agree that it would be okay.....

[_Schadenfreude_]

If China thought they could take back Taiwan by invasion they would - they can't and they know it - so they resort to bluster in Government owned "newspapers" - it silly to believe anything the state owned newspapers claim.

The HK dailies would give a slightly more realistic view - they were very good prior to 1997 when I lived there but not sure now.

[Gixer]

Originally posted by NUKE
How does Iraq's violation of the 1st Gulf War's cease-fire agreements compair?

I'm amazed anyone still believes in any pro iraq war arguments.

"Why of course the people don't want war. Why should some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece? Naturally the common people don't want war: neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country." - Hermann Goering, April 18, 1946, while awaiting the Nuremberg trials.



...-Gixer

[NUKE]

Originally posted by _Schadenfreude_
If China thought they could take back Taiwan by invasion they would - they can't and they know it - so they resort to bluster in Government owned "newspapers" - it silly to believe anything the state owned newspapers claim.

The HK dailies would give a slightly more realistic view - they were very good prior to 1997 when I lived there but not sure now.

You are correct. China does not have the ability to successfully invade Taiwan. It's a common myth that China is some kind of super-power. The fact is that China can't project much power even across the water into Taiwan.

[-dead-]

Taking Taiwan by force would be possible, but very costly in terms of military power, diplomatic fallout etc.

Most importantly it would be bad for business. The People's Liberation Army has huge business interests at stake - they have all sorts of civilian manufacturing plants and trade sidelines. This shouldn't be underestimated in China's military outlook: were a war to breakout, an awful lot of the top brass would be out of pocket.

The HK dailies' take on the Taiwan thing is basically: Chen Shui Bian staged his own shooting and rigged the election, and not very well in either case. The local TV showed some hilarious footage of a couple of 10 year-old kids voting in the free and fair election. It's par for the course - the Taiwan parliament generally comes out looking like the WWWF a lot of the time - there's a lot of fist fights and slapping involved in the fledgling Taiwanese democracy.
 The China bit really doesn't figure too much - Beijing always says something like that - in this case it's viewed as mostly to put the pressure on Taiwan to stabilize, because this sort of turmoil breeds uncertainty which is bad for business.

The Chinese dailies haven't really mentioned it at all, because Taiwan is just another province of China, and therefore wouldn't be holding elections now - they'd have been a while back. Besides they're a bit busy with the Diao Yu Islands fracas and the Japanese arresting the Chinese protestors. Far more outrageous for the Chinese patriots.

[Gixer]

Originally posted by NUKE
You are correct. China does not have the ability to successfully invade Taiwan. It's a common myth that China is some kind of super-power. The fact is that China can't project much power even across the water into Taiwan.

I suggest you have a good look at this website before making that statement:

http://www.sinodefence.com/

They've come along way from a large obsolote mainland defence force of the 80's and early 90's. China could shutdown and take Taiwan militarily tomorrow and there isn't a thing anyone could do to stop them.

Send a Carrier Fleet? Looks good for the media and works well against countries like Iraq without any strike ability but against a county like China involved in a  local conflict would be very risky.

China see Taiwan as nothing more then a rouge state and part of it's territory. There would be alot of polotical fallout, but unfortunetly for west we can't do without China as a trading partner anymore then they can do without us. Infact I think it would hurt the west alot more then it would hurt them. China's already pretty much paid off Taiwan as an interest to the US.

Would US really protect Taiwan. In risk of a major militarily conflict and millions/billions in trade dollars? I doubt it.


...-Gixer

[NUKE]

I looked over the sight and I will say again: China does not have the ability to project power or invade countries beyond it's borders.

They have no "Blue water" navy to speak of. How are they going to get to Taiwan?

Now China has been building subs and they are trying to get enough of a navy to fight and go the 100 miles to Taiwan, but they are nowhere near there yet.

The best China could do to Taiwan at this point would be to bombard it with missles and even that would not threaten Taiwan's survival.  If China did that, you can bet the US would respond and we would have plenty of time to respond.

[Lizking]

China could take Tiawan in a couple of weeks, probably less.  We do not need China as a trading partner; they need us.

[newtype]

Interesting article. Thanks.

[newtype]

Originally posted by -dead-
Taking Taiwan by force would be possible, but very costly in terms of military power, diplomatic fallout etc.

Most importantly it would be bad for business. The People's Liberation Army has huge business interests at stake - they have all sorts of civilian manufacturing plants and trade sidelines. This shouldn't be underestimated in China's military outlook: were a war to breakout, an awful lot of the top brass would be out of pocket.

The HK dailies' take on the Taiwan thing is basically: Chen Shui Bian staged his own shooting and rigged the election, and not very well in either case. The local TV showed some hilarious footage of a couple of 10 year-old kids voting in the free and fair election. It's par for the course - the Taiwan parliament generally comes out looking like the WWWF a lot of the time - there's a lot of fist fights and slapping involved in the fledgling Taiwanese democracy.
 The China bit really doesn't figure too much - Beijing always says something like that - in this case it's viewed as mostly to put the pressure on Taiwan to stabilize, because this sort of turmoil breeds uncertainty which is bad for business.

The Chinese dailies haven't really mentioned it at all, because Taiwan is just another province of China, and therefore wouldn't be holding elections now - they'd have been a while back. Besides they're a bit busy with the Diao Yu Islands fracas and the Japanese arresting the Chinese protestors. Far more outrageous for the Chinese patriots.

China does have alot to gain from aquiring Taiwan however it looses much of that if it does so militarily. I hope there is peace in the region, however it resolves itself.

[Nefarious]

Originally posted by NUKE
I looked over the sight and I will say again: China does not have the ability to project power or invade countries beyond it's borders.

They have no "Blue water" navy to speak of. How are they going to get to Taiwan?

Now China has been building subs and they are trying to get enough of a navy to fight and go the 100 miles to Taiwan, but they are nowhere near there yet.

The best China could do to Taiwan at this point would be to bombard it with missles and even that would not threaten Taiwan's survival.  If China did that, you can bet the US would respond and we would have plenty of time to respond.

I beleive China could pound Taiwan into the ground, From the Air and from SLBMs and SSBMs. China's Undersea fleet is mixed force of older Deisel boats and some sophisticated Missile Boats.

An effective Noose could be applied from the Sea and Air, Air Supremecy would be a pretty good fight for the first couple Hours.
They could throw walls of Aircraft against Taiwan, Something that Taiwan could not stand for long, I presume.

Add Aircraft with Standoff Anti-Ship Missiles and any US Battle Fleet(s) would be wary to be close, and any US/Taiwanese (Mind you, that the Taiwanese ASW Aircraft are probably already destroyed) Anti Submarine Aircraft would be vulnerable to Chinese Fighters.

And what would the US do?

Attack Targets in Mainland China?

I beleive we would be too busy trying to weed out Chinese Subs, and regaining Air Superiority over Taiwan.


I'm not a military Strategist here, but I do play NWS/NWP patched Fleet Command and I can tell you the Chinese are always force to reackon with.