Author Topic: Election 2004: White House - Latest Polls  (Read 785 times)

Offline Toad

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Election 2004: White House - Latest Polls
« on: August 26, 2004, 10:26:32 PM »
Likely Voters

FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8/25  Bush 44  Kerry 45
   
Gallup 8/25  Bush 50  Kerry 47  
   
GWU Battleground 8/17 Bush 47  Kerry 49


Registered Voters

Gallup 8/25  Bush 47  Kerry 48    
   
Los Angeles Times 8/24 Bush 49 Kerry 46  
   
IBD/CSM/TIPP 8/23  Bush 44  Kerry 44



And HERE WE GO into the Republican Convention!

Honestly, I thought Kerry'd be pulling way ahead. Iraq can't be helping Bush, the economy/jobs reports are not thrilling, the market is not skyrocketing, oil prices were just at records.

Just goes to show I better stay out of political forecasting.

67 days to the final poll as of the 27 August.
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Offline NUKE

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Election 2004: White House - Latest Polls
« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2004, 10:30:13 PM »
Why echange Bush for Kerry when nobody has any idea what Kerry will do or what he stands for? Kerry is a weazel and can't win.

Bush will win in a landslide.

Offline Nash

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Election 2004: White House - Latest Polls
« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2004, 10:31:51 PM »
National polls are completely meaningless.

Offline Saurdaukar

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Election 2004: White House - Latest Polls
« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2004, 12:34:14 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Nash
National polls are completely meaningless.


Unless they show Kerry in front, right?

Offline Nash

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Election 2004: White House - Latest Polls
« Reply #4 on: August 27, 2004, 12:45:11 AM »
Don't they?

I guess it depends.

But no...

Lemme put it this way...

If 50,000 Texans decided to suddenly switch to Democrat, or if 50,000 Californians decided to switch to Republican, the look of these national polls would change.

However, Texas would still vote Bush overall, and California would still vote Kerry overall.

So nothing changes.

National polls don't indicate anything.

Keep your eye on Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee etc.

These folks are going to decide your next President.

The vast majority of folks who participate in national polls might as well just go to the beach on election day.

Offline Saurdaukar

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Election 2004: White House - Latest Polls
« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2004, 12:53:41 AM »
Go to bed - Im just giving you ****.

Offline Nash

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Election 2004: White House - Latest Polls
« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2004, 01:02:51 AM »
Good idea.

And I congratulate you, your people, and your entire state for, in stark contrast to what some national polls would indicate, voting the right man into office.


Offline Eagler

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Election 2004: White House - Latest Polls
« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2004, 05:40:49 AM »
"Masters of the Air" Scenario - JG27


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Offline Toad

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Election 2004: White House - Latest Polls
« Reply #8 on: August 27, 2004, 06:29:30 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Nash

Keep your eye on Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee etc.

These folks are going to decide your next President.



Really? How can you say that? Last time, Bush had 271 Electoral votes and Gore 266.

So a total change of 5 votes would have changed the outcome.



There's an awful lot of single states that could have created a 5 point swing. How can you say it's just "Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Arkansas, West Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee"?

I hope no registered voter stays home on national polling day. I hope the elegible get off the sofa and get registered if they are not.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude than the animated contest of freedom, go from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains sit lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen!

Offline Eagler

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dunno how accurate
« Reply #9 on: August 27, 2004, 07:01:43 AM »
"Masters of the Air" Scenario - JG27


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Offline Nash

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Election 2004: White House - Latest Polls
« Reply #10 on: August 27, 2004, 08:35:59 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Toad
So a total change of 5 votes would have changed the outcome.


But those 5 votes that could change the result wouldn't be coming from California and Texas (for example)... we already know who their votes are going to.

I'm not saying that just one state is going to decide the outcome.

Offline capt. apathy

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Election 2004: White House - Latest Polls
« Reply #11 on: August 27, 2004, 08:45:20 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by NUKE
Why echange Bush for Kerry when nobody has any idea what Kerry will do or what he stands for?
 


because when faced with a choice between a known choice that is so bad it's hard to imagine a worse choice, and a complete unknown, only a person who has a serious fear of change would choose to continue on with the known failure.

although Bush does have a very good chance at re-election.  thanks in large part to the same mentality that compels women to stay with a guy, who beats them and drinks the bill money, because she's afraid she won't be able to find anyone better if she leaves him.

Offline lazs2

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Election 2004: White House - Latest Polls
« Reply #12 on: August 27, 2004, 09:07:12 AM »
a better example using women would be that women allways vote for democrats.   Women and womenly men and big city apartment dwellers.

lazs

Offline midnight Target

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Election 2004: White House - Latest Polls
« Reply #13 on: August 27, 2004, 09:40:19 AM »
Looks like the Swift Boat Liars for Truth are getting their job done.

Offline capt. apathy

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Election 2004: White House - Latest Polls
« Reply #14 on: August 27, 2004, 09:49:32 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by lazs2
a better example using women would be that women allways vote for democrats.   Women and womenly men and big city apartment dwellers.

lazs


I hear that from you a lot, while actually, more of the women I know vote republican (or more accurately, most of those that I know are planning to vote republican are women).  and most of the men vote democrat

they like the way they feel safer (without actually being safer) when the republicans start talking minimum sentences, and zero tolerance policies, and getting tough on crime.

  since they are often the type of women who tend to go more on feeling than actual reason, they never move past that to the logical next questions of where are we going to put the additional inmates, and how will we afford the increased cost of apprehending, bringing to trial, and incarcerating, while at the same time cutting taxes to the wealthy, getting in an extra-curricular war or 2, rebuilding other countries, taking on the role of vigilante to the world, and crapping all over our own economy.

most men I know pay more attention to the bottom line.  they've seen how the republicans seem to spend a lot of time talking about some very positive things, but when it comes to actual effort and action, they seem to apply most of that to other areas that tend to screw over mainstream America.

while at the same time the Dems tend to throw a lot of talk behind every fruity new cause that comes down the line, and like the republicans not much happens on these issues that they have so much to say about.   but again, when you forget the talk and watch the bottom line-  wages go up, bills tend to get paid, jobs are available for those willing to work, the national debt gets paid down, and the over-all quality of life seems to improve for most of us when they are in office.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2004, 09:52:29 AM by capt. apathy »