Life should not be that simple.
Especially not when your talking foreign polcy.
I think they were working with the best information available at the time. However estimating intelligence has always been a dice throw.
Last, you want me to be nice to you, give you what you want. Show up here with your ingame handle. Or admit you don't fly AH. As long as your "anonymous" your chum bait in a shark feeding frenzy.
Watch your 6!