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Author Topic: Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"  (Read 1096 times)

Offline Hortlund

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Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"
« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2004, 05:59:26 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Nilsen
no


Yes, becuase when you reach  a certain limit of probability, it is no longer physically possible to achieve it. Google on it.
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Offline Nilsen

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Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"
« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2004, 06:05:46 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Hortlund
Yes, becuase when you reach  a certain limit of probability, it is no longer physically possible to achieve it. Google on it.


I see your point but i still dont agree. If the lottery is not discontinued, the numbers will eventually be picked by the machine. I guess you mean that the numbers doesnt have to get picked within a persons liftime and then you are correct.
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Offline Hortlund

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Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"
« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2004, 06:07:09 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Nilsen
If the lottery is not discontinued, the numbers will eventually be picked by the machine.


No, that statement is simply not true. Even if the lottery continued indefinitively.
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Offline Nilsen

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Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"
« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2004, 06:10:57 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Hortlund
No, that statement is simply not true. Even if the lottery continued indefinitively.


yes it will eventually get picked
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Offline Hortlund

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Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"
« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2004, 06:12:05 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Nilsen
yes it will eventually get picked


google on it. The statement is simply not true because there is no memory in random numbers.
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Offline Tuomio

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Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"
« Reply #20 on: September 18, 2004, 06:44:31 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Hortlund
google on it. The statement is simply not true because there is no memory in random numbers.


If you change the numbers after every draw, it is as probable to win as if you'd keep the same numbers constantly. But there is 99.999999..% chance that you win in lottery if you have indefinite amount of time to play it.
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Offline Ripsnort

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Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"
« Reply #21 on: September 18, 2004, 07:03:50 AM »
Quote
Originally posted by Sandman
The entire verse as posted isn't mentioned at Snopes, but some of it is.

Some more here and here.

Regardless, I have no faith in the "prophecy" of Nostradamus on anything else either.


Wha...? You don't believe the phophet Ripsnortian when he said "and in the year of re-election, the Seattle Seahawks will go 11-5."
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Offline DREDIOCK

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Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"
« Reply #22 on: September 18, 2004, 10:20:07 AM »
Farce or not.
It is at the very least interesting.

I have a prediction.

I predict tomorrow when you all wake up and look out side
There will be weather:)
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Offline SLO

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Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"
« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2004, 01:15:56 PM »
I'd like to challenge Ripsnortians viewing....

sayin.....


"NAY, my crome dome machismo girly man, thy Hawks will faulter and look like a bunch of cheap tight fitting jockey Sheep Herders"


you can but concur, says so in my bowl of rice from which I make my predictions
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Offline Angus

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Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"
« Reply #24 on: September 18, 2004, 01:20:12 PM »
From Hortlund:
"google on it. The statement is simply not true because there is no memory in random numbers."

I  tend to disagree with you about randomness.

You see, if the dice(s) is/are thrown often enough, eventually you will get all numbers in the possible range. just a question of time.

However, that IMHO does not with Nostradamus'es words about the 20th century.
He mentions the 20th century a lot.

Any of you , try to make a computer program, based on the RND function, to make prophets about the 16th to the 20th century.....
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Offline Holden McGroin

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Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"
« Reply #25 on: September 18, 2004, 01:38:54 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Angus
You see, if the dice(s) is/are thrown often enough, eventually you will get all numbers in the possible range. just a question of time.


So you roll the dice 452,632 times and astonishingly, you have never rolled snake eyes.  On the next roll, your odds of rolling snake eyes are still 1:36, no different from any of the other rolls.

Though the odds of rolling dice a half a million times and never rolling snake eyes is extremely small, the odds of each roll independantly remain the same, 1:36.  It never changes.
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Offline Sandman

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Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"
« Reply #26 on: September 18, 2004, 02:32:14 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Hortlund
Yes, becuase when you reach  a certain limit of probability, it is no longer physically possible to achieve it. Google on it.


Hmmm... been awhile since I studied statistics and probability, but I'm guessing that you're referencing some limit theorem that I don't recall.

Maybe DMF knows.
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Offline J_A_B

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Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"
« Reply #27 on: September 18, 2004, 03:17:11 PM »
Nostradamus is like a sixteenth-century Miss Cleo.

Take something that will obviously happen (like...say....a fire in a big city), dress it up in vague cyptic-sounding speech, and BAM, half the people (the gullible half) instantly think of you as some sort of psychic.


I'm still waiting on one of these self-proclaimed clairvoyants to correctly predict the big lottery for me two or three weeks in a row.  



J_A_B
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Offline ASTAC

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Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"
« Reply #28 on: September 18, 2004, 03:22:22 PM »
In the year 1999, high above Macross Island in the South Pacific, a phenominal event ocurred in the skies which altered the course of human history
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That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety

Offline Tuomio

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Nostradamus "In The Year 1999"
« Reply #29 on: September 18, 2004, 04:43:43 PM »
Quote
Originally posted by Holden McGroin
the odds of each roll independantly remain the same, 1:36.  It never changes.


Which is not what the initial example was about. If my chances of scoring in basketball is 50% and i get 3 throws, my chances of succeeding atleast once is 87.5%.
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