Author Topic: Uh Oh!! (Read 474 times)

Scootter · « **on:** October 26, 2004, 02:09:54 PM »

Getting close to Nov 2

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

FourMooreyears:D

Sandman · « **Reply #1 on:** October 26, 2004, 02:15:26 PM »

Scootter · « **Reply #2 on:** October 26, 2004, 02:18:14 PM »

Yep,

Prodicted by a self proclaimed Kerry site

Heres one pro Bush

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

AKS\/\/ulfe · « **Reply #3 on:** October 26, 2004, 02:19:52 PM »

Like a ****ing special ed class.

One day matters, and will be the only thing that proves the clear winner : November 2nd.
-SW

Ripsnort · « **Reply #4 on:** October 26, 2004, 02:21:53 PM »

Hawaii: "Weak Bush". Shocking!

lazs2 · « **Reply #5 on:** October 26, 2004, 02:24:01 PM »

yep I emailed this guy and he admits that he is extremely pro kerrie.... He also claims that polls are off because all the kerrie voters don't have homes or real phones.

lazs

Sandman · « **Reply #6 on:** October 26, 2004, 02:24:33 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Scootter
Yep,

Prodicted by a self proclaimed Kerry site

Check the link... the self proclaimed Kerry site predicts that Kerry will get 271 electoral votes.

Scootter · « **Reply #7 on:** October 26, 2004, 02:30:00 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Sandman
Check the link... the self proclaimed Kerry site predicts that Kerry will get 271 electoral votes.

Sand, how do you explain the 4 states he prodicts will be EXACTLY a tie and they amount to 50 E.V.

He is taking great liberties in an EXACT (his words) tie then gives them to Kerry.

Must be the lawsuites and recounts:rolleyes:

"This predictive map was made using the following assumptions.

- Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it
- The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)
- In states where Nader is on the ballot, he will get 1%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000)
- The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)
The numbers given for Kerry and Bush in the pop-up boxes include the undecideds."

You know what they say about ASSUMEing

lazs2 · « **Reply #8 on:** October 26, 2004, 02:57:11 PM »

he predicts based on what he wants to happen... he shows current electorial votes based on what is happening. email him if you don't believe me.

lazs

Sikboy · « **Reply #9 on:** October 26, 2004, 03:03:33 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Sandman
You sure about that?

I really do enjoy following the Polls on electoral-vote.com, however the projection seems a bit iffy to me. Why does he assume the undecideds will break 2:1 for Kerry?

Sandy? Todd? Anyone?

[edit] oops, scooter already pointed this out

-Sik

Sandman · « **Reply #10 on:** October 26, 2004, 03:08:26 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Scootter
Sand, how do you explain the 4 states he prodicts will be EXACTLY a tie and they amount to 50 E.V.

He is taking great liberties in an EXACT (his words) tie then gives them to Kerry.

Must be the lawsuites and recounts:rolleyes:

"This predictive map was made using the following assumptions.

- Voters who already have made a choice will stick to it
- The undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry)
- In states where Nader is on the ballot, he will get 1%; otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000)
- The minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000)
The numbers given for Kerry and Bush in the pop-up boxes include the undecideds."

You know what they say about ASSUMEing

Take it up with the folks at electoral-votes.com... You picked the page you liked from the site and I offered another page from the same site as contradiction.

Sikboy · « **Reply #11 on:** October 26, 2004, 03:11:37 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Sandman
You picked the page you liked from the site and I offered another page from the same site as contradiction.

Your page had questionable methodology

But a quick scroll through the last two weeks, and the behavior of Florida would have been more effective at bringing into question the value of polling data a week before the election.

-Sik

lazs2 · « **Reply #12 on:** October 26, 2004, 03:13:52 PM »

he admits that 2/1 is extreme and highly unlikely. His "prediction" is based on a (for him) best case scenario.

his day to day map is based on actual polls.

lazs

Sandman · « **Reply #13 on:** October 26, 2004, 03:14:11 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Sikboy
Your page had questionable methodology

But a quick scroll through the last two weeks, and the behavior of Florida would have been more effective at bringing into question the value of polling data a week before the election.

-Sik

Hmmm... so what's the point of having two different prediction pages?

Sikboy · « **Reply #14 on:** October 26, 2004, 03:17:50 PM »

Quote

Originally posted by Sandman
Hmmm... so what's the point of having two different prediction pages?

One is based on today's data, the other is supposed to be a projection based on polling trends.

[edit] I think the actual answer is that he wasn't always getting the answers he wanted with the daily polls.
[/edit]

-Sik