Author Topic: How valid would a Kerry challenge be? (Read 341 times)

Captain Virgil Hilts · « **on:** November 03, 2004, 01:59:15 AM »

Bush just surged to a lead of 137K in Ohio with 98% of precincts reporting. This will require Kerry to get 75%+ of the provisionals if it comes to that.

He is poised to take Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada.

He also has the popular vote be about 2-3%.

So how valid would a challenge be?

And how bad will it look?

CavemanJ · « **Reply #1 on:** November 03, 2004, 02:01:09 AM »

Wanting to wait for the provisionals to be counted is, I think, the only think Kerry can challenge without looking like a cry baby.

And if they've really got 250k+ provisional votes like the demos are saying, I can deal with waiting til they're counted. Prolly only take about 40% of them being counted before it's clear Kerry can't take Ohio and can't win.

Captain Virgil Hilts · « **Reply #2 on:** November 03, 2004, 02:16:40 AM »

Currently, with 98% of precincts reporting, Bush holds a lead of 139K.

The number of provisional ballots is said to be around 150K.

Kerry would have to get 96% of all provisional votes.

Surely the Kerry campaign can see that is just not going to happen.

At least we should hope so.

Sox62 · « **Reply #3 on:** November 03, 2004, 02:23:46 AM »

There is also the absentee vote in Ohio to be considered,most of which are overseas military who would mostly vote Bush.

Gunslinger · « **Reply #4 on:** November 03, 2004, 02:26:08 AM »

I'm not sure what the recount laws are in Ohio but I would think that Bush took the precentage and there would be no GROUNDS for a recall. I mean cmon 100k votes isnt really close is it?

CavemanJ · « **Reply #5 on:** November 03, 2004, 02:29:23 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by Gunslinger
I'm not sure what the recount laws are in Ohio but I would think that Bush took the precentage and there would be no GROUNDS for a recall. I mean cmon 100k votes isnt really close is it?

Ohio isn't about a recount yet. The provisional ballots haven't been counted (and won't be for 11 days they said) for the first time yet. Whether or not they are counted, I think, will depend on GW's lead when all precincts are in, and just how many provisionals there.

If GW leads by 150k, and there are only 100k provisionals they won't bother counting because they couldn't affect the outcome.

Captain Virgil Hilts · « **Reply #6 on:** November 03, 2004, 02:30:24 AM »

Quote

Originally posted by Gunslinger
I'm not sure what the recount laws are in Ohio but I would think that Bush took the precentage and there would be no GROUNDS for a recall. I mean cmon 100k votes isnt really close is it?

It is WELL outside the standard for an automatic recall (standard is 0.25%) but Kerry can demand one, and can demand that the provisionals and absentees be counted as well. He shouldn't, but likely he will. If he doesn't, then I'll give him credit. If he does, he'll confirm my thoughts on him once again.

Elfie · « **Reply #7 on:** November 03, 2004, 02:33:32 AM »

Also, many of those provisional ballots won't even be valid votes. The former mayor of New York City said it's typically only 10 - 12% that are found to be valid.

The one thing that could possibly swing the vote to John Kerry in Ohio is the absentee ballots, although that isnt likely either.

Sox62 · « **Reply #8 on:** November 03, 2004, 02:43:14 AM »

This makes me glad that I stood in line for two hours today to cast my vote for Bush here in Columbus.

Bah! I need to go die a few times before going to bed,lol.