Stupid math tricks and nicotine addiction

[TweetyBird]

A local television station ran a story that only 32 people died in commercial airline crashes last year compared to 42,000 that died in automobile accidents. It stated people were over 1000 times more likely to die in an automobile than a commercial plane. Can’t argue with that, but it implies commercial flight is 1000 times safer than automobile travel which is completely erroneous.

I have not researched any statistics, but am going from memory and doing some rough math. Yet it reveals a little deception on the safety of air travel. I would conservatively put the number of commercial air travel deaths at about 150 per year over the last 10 years. I would put the number of automobile fatalities liberally at about 50,000 per year over the last 10 years. I would put the number of air travelers in the US at about 1 million per day (and I think that’s liberal). I would put the number of automobile travelers at about 200 million ( and I think that’s conservative). I would put the average commercial flight at 3 hours (probably too long) and the average time in an automobile at about 45 minutes (probably too short).

So lets see how that shakes out. There are about .41 deaths per day in air travel (150/365). That’s .41 deaths per 3 million hours of commercial air travel, or about 1 death ever 7 million hours or air travel. There are about 137 deaths per day in automobile accidents (50,000/365). That’s 137 deaths per 150 million hours, or about 1 death every 1 million hours of road travel.

So yea, I guess air travel is safer than road travel – but 1000 times safer? Nah, maybe 7 times safer. Course if one omits the traffic accidents where the fatality is a drunk driver or the passenger of a drunk driver, air travel may only be 5 times as safe.

I quit smoking again  - can you tell?…

[rpm]

If you consider that airline pilots are not eating a barvarian cream donut, applying make-up and using one hand to talk on a cell phone while changing radio staions with the other and driving with their knees...yeah, I'd say it's 1000 times safer, if not more.

[Gunslinger]

tweety I just got off the zyban because it was killing my stomach and I wanted to drink for the hollidays.  That, and I didn't set up properly for the "quit".

I was proud of myself for the fact that I got down to about 3-4 smokes a day but kicking those last 3 was harder than kicking the previous 20 while on zyban.  Either way I'm gonna try again in febuary so good luck to ya.

EDIT:

an interesting stat to play with might also be nicotine addiction compared to heroin addiction.  The "experts" say smoking is more addictive mostly because more people are hooked on it.  One would think that heroin is in fact a more "adictive" drug chemically than nicotine.  Like I said might be fun to un-fudge them numbers.

[Dead Man Flying]

Professional and highly trained pilots fly commercial jets.  Ordinary people drive cars.  Wouldn't it be more appropriate to compare death rates between more similar groups?  They need to include the number of non-commercial airplane fatalities into their total, or they need to measure the death rates for professional drivers only (e.g. truck drivers, limosine drivers, bus drivers, etc).

I'm guessing that doing so would change the findings somewhat.

-- Todd/Leviathn

[Nash]

Originally posted by Gunslinger
The "experts" say smoking is more addictive mostly because more people are hooked on it.  One would think that heroin is in fact a more "adictive" drug chemically than nicotine.  Like I said might be fun to un-fudge them numbers.

If you can make it there, you can make it anywhere... New Yawk, New Yawk.

Guaruntee you that very few of the "experts" have much practical experience in either field. I've been known to dabble in both. Quitting smoking is mind over matter. Quitting heroin is much like I imagine death to be. Nah... smokes are child's play (was 15 yr pack+ day smoker).

[Saintaw]

Originally posted by rpm
If you consider that airline pilots are not eating a barvarian cream donut, applying make-up and using one hand to talk on a cell phone while changing radio staions with the other and driving with their knees..

How do you know that?

I can picture Toad applying some lipstick on landings quite easily...

[rpm]

That's when the co-pilot goes to work.

[Flyboy]

is it still legal to drive and talk with a cell phone while holding it in the hand in the US?

i sure hope not. (ilegal here)

around a month after i got my driver licence i got in too a crossroads while holding and talking in the cell, i was so reckless i didnt look to my right and begun turning left. lucky my friend stoped me in time, cause a car went zooming pass us.

needless to say i no longer do it.

[jigsaw]

Go here (http://www.kingschools.com/productDetail.asp?itemNo=OOC%20AVMRMCD)
and click on the "Is flying safe" section near the bottom.

[rpm]

Originally posted by Flyboy
is it still legal to drive and talk with a cell phone while holding it in the hand in the US?

i sure hope not. (ilegal here)

Depends on the state. Texas is trying again to require a handsfree device or speakerphone while driving. There are 5 different bills in the works. Oddly enough, none would apply to law enforcement personnel. It's do as I say, not as I do.

[JB88]

anyone interested in a MA QUIT SMOKING DAY?  

might be interesting to do it with chums, then go beat the tar out of each other in the MA.

if so, im in.

smoking sucks.  quit for three years once.

wtf was i thinking doing it again?

[Saintaw]

tell me 'bout it

[Jackal1]

Originally posted by Gunslinger

EDIT:

an interesting stat to play with might also be nicotine addiction compared to heroin addiction.  The "experts" say smoking is more addictive mostly because more people are hooked on it.  One would think that heroin is in fact a more "adictive" drug chemically than nicotine.  Like I said might be fun to un-fudge them numbers.

  The most addictive substance on earth? Answer: caffiene.
  Watched a study on this that stated in it`s purest form caffiene is a white powder and that if the facts had been known long ago it would have been illegal .

[TweetyBird]

All I can say is thank God for that little patch. I could've bit the heads off of nails 20 minutes ago. Now its managable...

Nice patch,...my preciousss... no stinksy hobbitses are gonna steal the patchsssssssssssssss.....

[Toad]

I had my lip color tattooed on. Saves so much time.