Look out persian perps, it's on!

[Suave]

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20050116/wl_afp/usirannuclear_050116230143

[babek-]

LOL - now THATs really a new information - thank you.


Are these super-duper-US-analysts the same who told Bush jr that there would be thousands of happy and thankful iraquis standing at the streets and celebrating their US-liberators?

The same who said that there wouldnt be any resistance and that the situation would be stable when Saddam would be arrested and killed ?

When the USA or any other foreigner attacks Iran the same will happen what could be seen when Saddam and his arab hordes attacked our country in 1980: The iranians will stop any inner political fighting and unify to fight the foreign intruder.

And this is the sad thing: Khomeini wasnt stabilized before Saddam and the arabs attacked Iran. After the invasion attempt of the arabs he was.

Same will happen to the mullah regime in Teheran.
There is actually an innerpolitical fighting in Iran. This fighting has started years ago.
But when foreigners attack us, these will stop and the fighting against the aggressors will begin.

Thats the reason why the Mullahs indeed hope that there will be attacks on the iranian nuclear installations. They believe that the USA or Israel could attack the installations, but are not able to invade Iran. So they can raise the hate of the young people who actually refuse become anti-american fanatics, because the americans havent done anything against Iran until today.
This would change indeed after attacks.

There will be no revolution in Iran - just because the US is attacking.

There is also no iranian opposition in exile which is accepted by the iranian people. The Royalists of the Pahlevis are dreaming of the old times but the terrorism of the Shah is well remembered in Iran.
The so called democrats of Radjavi are seen as traitors, because their MKA-forces fought during the Iran-Iraq war on the side of Saddam and his arabs against Iran.

Only one of the political factions within Iran would be accepted as an alternative - and none of them would cooperate with attacking foreigners and accept to become a Quisling-puppet regime.

There are only 2 ways to depose the mullahs in Teheran.
To wait until the iranian democracy will finally succeed - without foreign interventention.
Or - 2nd - to invade and occupy the country, depose the actual regime and installing a puppet regime which wont be accepted by the people.

Considering the 2nd options there are many questions:
Is there an army to occupy Iran ? An Iran which is far bigger than  small counties like Iraq and Afghanistan? An Iran which is not a  flat desert country like Iraq. An Iran with a population of 60 millions - most of them shiites and under 30 years old?
Is it possible to build a strong coalition force of the willing or has the US again to perform the invasion alone?

And if there wont be an invasion but only missile attacks or air raids.
How could the mullah regime deposed by these actions ?
How could it avoided that the iranians - whose majority today  is not anti american - could not become anti-american fanatics because of these attacks ?

To make it clear: I have no sympathies for the mullah regime and I am convinced that we will finally get a democracy in Iran when we are not disturbed by foreigners and their political plans.
In fact we had a democracy in the 50ties under Mossadegh, which was destroyed by an operation of british and US intelligence forces who reinstalled the terroristic Shah and his SAVAK.

Attacking Iran - either to destroy some installations which could be easily replaced or to invade it - would be the same mistake like in the 50ties.

And no doubt - in case of an invasion - it would be taken more time, because of the more complicated and larger territory - but finally Iran would loose against this excellent US-war machine.

But like in Iraq then the real war will begin in form of a guerilla warfare.

How many US-soldiers have already died in Iraq after the victory was declared ? 1200 ? 1300 ?

Now just try imagine the numbers of losses of them when they are performing their duty in an occupied Iran.

[Toad]

What if next time there is no occupation?

What if the US just hammers Iran into the ground like tent pegs and then walks away?

All in all, however, I totally discount these reports.

Not gunna do it, wouldn't be prudent.

[-tronski-]

If they did not only would it kill the fledgling reformist movement and cement the hardliners , but I hope they got the borders sewn up tight cause they'll be an avalanche of clowns just looking to martyr themsleves against the occupation forces in Iraq...

 Tronsky

[Staga]

Originally posted by Toad
What if next time there is no occupation?

What if the US just hammers Iran into the ground like tent pegs and then walks away?

I think you're smart enough to answer your own question.

[Reschke]

Geez don't you just love crap news. If the US were to do it then we would be killing the only and yes I say only moderating force in the region. Those guys in Iran don't like us but they truly don't like the Sunni who were in power in Iraq. As a result of their hatred they may want to end up ultimately wanting to be in control of Iraq BUT they have supposedly handed the US and other nations information through back door communications about Iraq and other groups in the region.

Not only that but GWB can't afford to put another military force into the region other than small specops teams. Even then they can't do it all and we don't have enough military left from the Clinton draw down years and forcing people out of the service.

[cpxxx]

There are two ways of looking at this report. One is that finally Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz and the rest of the neo cons have finally gone mad and have decided to make an unprovoked attack on a  country with a working democracy which will not only upset the entire Islamic world but would be actively opposed by everyone else in the world including all of America's allies and most Americans  

OR

It's a disinformation campaign to make Rumsfeld and co look like like a bunch of Fascists.

More like the latter but the problem is that the first scenario is almost believable.

In practical terms it's almost impossible. The US military is overstretched now.  It wouldn't surprise me if there were teams in Iran at one stage but their cover is blown now.  

I think it's just anti neo con propaganda.

[Furious]

Originally posted by Reschke
...Even then they can't do it all and we don't have enough military left from the Clinton draw down years and forcing people out of the service.

Uhmm, all the "peace dividend" crap started with Bush Sr.

[scout]

Originally posted by cpxxx

gone mad and have decided to make an unprovoked attack on a  country with a working democracy which will not only upset the

'Working democracy' ? What are you smoking ?
I don't remember the exact number but was it 40% of would be electees 'disqualified' by the ruling mullahs, in the last election-comedy ?

Otherwise I'll agree with most of this thread, it would be mistake to attack Iran now.

[oboe]

What about Osama Bin Laden?

[lada]

Originally posted by scout
'Working democracy' ? What are you smoking ?
I don't remember the exact number but was it 40% of would be electees 'disqualified' by the ruling mullahs, in the last election-comedy ?

Otherwise I'll agree with most of this thread, it would be mistake to attack Iran now.

well ginaly only 20% of then has been "disqualified"

However president is elected by people so that why/how iran changing.

regarding that news.
Just HoaX IMO


just found thisone
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4182365.stm

[Staga]

Originally posted by oboe
What about Osama Bin Laden?

Osama who ?

[patrone]

Originally posted by oboe
What about Osama Bin Laden?

No, you got it wrong Oboe, Bin Laden is not President of Iran. Stop listening to Fox and CNN, please.......

[oboe]

Originally posted by patrone
No, you got it wrong Oboe, Bin Laden is not President of Iran. Stop listening to Fox and CNN, please.......

I usually get my news from NPR (radio) or MSN (web).    

But no, I just want Bush to honor what he said way back when this whole thing started, and capture Osama Bin Laden-- before he gets what's left of our reserves involved in yet another Middle Eastern country.

I am starting to get the impression that if GW had been President during the Cold War, we'd have had boots on the ground marching on Moscow...

Good thing those Asian banks are willing to keep lending us so much money to keep our country afloat.

[Yeager]

A couple of thoughts I have on OBL.  

His entire life is devoted to evasion and survival.  Oh sure, he may make a video tape saying things I will never care to translate from time to time......but his primary concern day to day, hour to hour, minute to minute of every heartbeat of every day is to not be found, not even by even a little bird in a tree.  Fun....he will never make a another public appearence, ever.

If he is ever found alive by SF he will be violently killed and deservedly so.

I almost feel sorry for the ignorant bastard, but not quite.  I hope when he is killed he experiences at least the knowledge that he is being killed.  If he is never killed he will at least die hiding knowing that all he ever did since 9/12/01 is hide like no man has ever hidden before...complete and total non existence.

As far as Iran and the story about airstrikes goes:  I am non commited to that potentiol reality.  I have my doubts that the story is anything more than a just that, a story.  Having said that, it may be useful to remind the government of Iran that it is open to an attack by the United States if it is believed to be a threat.

Comes a time when you have to assume the correct location in the pecking order, and Iran threatening the United States is out of that pecking order, imo.